--- title: "Tesla's U.S. Market Is At An 8-Year Low... How Bad Could It Get?" description: "Tesla's U.S. market share has dropped to 38%, an eight-year low, raising concerns as the stock struggles to break through $360. Analysts remain divided; while some express caution due to deteriorating" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/257168387.md" published_at: "2025-09-12T22:40:00.000Z" --- # Tesla's U.S. Market Is At An 8-Year Low... How Bad Could It Get? > Tesla's U.S. market share has dropped to 38%, an eight-year low, raising concerns as the stock struggles to break through $360. Analysts remain divided; while some express caution due to deteriorating fundamentals, others, like Morgan Stanley and Stifel Nicolaus, maintain bullish outlooks with price targets above $400. The company faces increasing competition and challenges with its robotaxi launch, leading to fears of further margin erosion. Investors are left questioning whether to hold or exit as the stock's technical picture appears fragile. Shares of automotive giant **Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA** closed just under $350 on Wednesday, continuing a lackluster couple of sessions. The stock looks tired and is essentially flat since May despite a breakout from its pennant pattern last month. For the bulls, the repeated failures to punch through $360 are starting to add up and become a weight around the stock's neck. That level has acted as stiff resistance several times over the past few months, and every rejection chips away at confidence. Frustration is mounting, and the latest reports on Tesla's U.S. market share will do little to ease concerns. For a stock still **valued at close to 200x earnings**, what was looking likely to be a strong end to the year is now a bit of a pipedream. Investors are wondering: is there still an opportunity here, or is it time to head for the exit? ## Market Share Slide Raises Red Flags A research report from earlier this week is causing much concern. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla's U.S. market share **dropped to 38% in August**, slipping below the 40% mark for the first time since 2017. That represents an eight-year low for a company that once dominated over 80% of the market. While Tesla has built its brand on being the leader in electric vehicles (EVs), rivals are rapidly gaining ground with fresh lineups while Tesla's models begin to show their age. The broader industry is still expanding, with analysts expecting U.S. EV sales to rise through September. But with federal tax credits expiring at the end of the month, that tailwind could quickly fade. For Tesla, which has already had to cut prices in China to defend its position against competition, the risk is that additional headwinds like this will only continue to erode its margins and profit. Adding to the unease, the company's highly anticipated robotaxi launch seems to have fallen flat. A limited rollout in Austin over the summer was far from the sweeping disruption many had expected. Optimism has cooled, and with full self-driving still far from regulatory approval, Tesla no longer looks like the runaway leader in autonomy. The monthly numbers' doom and gloom weigh heavily on sentiment, and that's dangerous for a company with Tesla's valuation. ## Technical Picture Looks Fragile ### Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Price Chart for Friday, September, 12, 2025 From a technical perspective, Tesla's stock is now walking a tightrope. The repeated failures at $360, returning to before the summer, are setting up a scenario where buyers just want to throw in the towel. If that happens, a selloff back toward $320 looks likely, with the rising uptrend from April acting as the first line of defense. However, should that fail, $300 comes into play, and at that point, all bets could be off. Given that this stock has always built its rallies on the promise of tomorrow being better than today, its track record shows it can sink like a stone if the bears take control. In other words, **Tesla badly needs a fresh catalyst**. Without positive news, whether in the form of stronger sales, regulatory wins for self-driving, or a significant product update, the risk is skewed toward a deeper pullback. Investors have grown used to seeing Tesla bounce back quickly from dips, but the setup is undoubtedly more fragile this time. ## Analysts Still See Big Upside Despite the mounting risks, not everyone is ready to give up on Tesla. In fact, some of Wall Street's biggest names remain bullish. Just last week, for example, Morgan Stanley and Stifel Nicolaus reiterated their Overweight ratings on the stock, with **price targets above $400**. Stifel is particularly optimistic and sees room for Tesla to rally as high as $440, implying roughly 25% upside from current levels. That kind of analyst conviction matters. It reflects that Tesla's long-term optionality, from autonomy to robotics and energy storage, still makes it a unique growth story. While things feel sluggish, the potential payoff is likely big enough to keep investors engaged. The challenge is that the fundamentals are deteriorating in the near term, making the stock look stretched. Until something changes, investors are right to be cautious. ## Should You Invest $1,000 in Tesla Right Now? Before you consider Tesla, you'll want to hear this. MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Tesla wasn't on the list. While Tesla currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys. View The Five Stocks Here ### Related Stocks - [MS.US - Morgan Stanley](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) - [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSDD.US - GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US - AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [09366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA-U](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [07766.HK - XL2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [07366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) - [TSLR.US - GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | Elon Musk Says NASA Will Account For Only 5% Of SpaceX's Revenue In 2026: 'I Love NASA, But...' | Elon Musk stated that NASA will only account for 5% of SpaceX's revenue in 2026, with the Starlink satellite internet se | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275306622.md) | | This Tiny EV Company Is Promising Solid-State Batteries In 2027 | Karma Automotive, a California-based EV startup, plans to launch its first fully electric vehicle, the Kaveya, in 2027, | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274987198.md) | | Lucid's $50,000 EV Is Coming. It Doesn't Plan To Go Much Cheaper Than That | Lucid Motors is set to launch its most affordable model, a mid-size SUV priced around $50,000, aiming to enter a new mar | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275292141.md) | | ANALYSIS-Musk fires up SpaceX, Bezos pushes Blue Origin as US billionaires race China to moon | The competition between U.S. billionaires Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos in the space race is intensifying as both aim to retu | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275888738.md) | | Tesla’s US sales drop 17%, raising questions about EV momentum | Tesla’s U.S. sales drop 17% is raising questions about EV momentum, and it’s part of this... | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275985008.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.