Guohai Securities: Data centers drive the growth of liquid cooling demand, focus on upstream core refrigerant materials

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guohai Securities released a research report stating that, according to Semianalysis, the global AI computing center installed capacity will reach 7GW in 2024, and is expected to further grow by 2028. Data center liquid cooling is driven by two main factors: high heat dissipation and high power consumption. Currently, cold plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling are the two mainstream liquid cooling solutions for data centers. First, based on whether the cooling medium vaporizes in the cooling composition, cold plate cooling can be further divided into two categories: single-phase and phase-change, where the cooling medium for single-phase cold plates is mainly deionized water, and phase-change cold plates mainly use fluorinated substances (including refrigerants); second, immersion cooling liquids are mainly divided into synthetic oils and fluorinated liquids. It is recommended to pay attention to upstream core refrigerant materials and related companies.

Guohai Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

AI data center demand growth, data center liquid cooling driven by two main factors

According to Semianalysis, the global AI computing center installed capacity will reach 7GW in 2024, and is expected to further grow by 2028. Data center liquid cooling is driven by two main factors: 1) High heat dissipation: the space for further multi-core performance enhancement is limited, increasing power becomes an important choice, and as chip power density increases, the demand for high heat dissipation expands, while air cooling can no longer meet current cooling needs; 2) High power consumption: data centers are high power consumption industries, with cooling systems accounting for about 40% of the total energy consumption of data centers, thus cooling power consumption is a key factor affecting the PUE value.

Selection of cooling medium: Currently, cold plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling are the two mainstream liquid cooling solutions for data centers

1) Cold plate: Based on whether the cooling medium vaporizes in the cooling composition, cold plate cooling can be further divided into single-phase and phase-change categories, where the cooling medium for single-phase cold plates is mainly deionized water, and phase-change cold plates mainly use fluorinated substances (including refrigerants). Traditional single-phase cold plate liquid cooling usually only covers individual high-power chips such as CPUs and GPUs. As chip power increases, the industry has begun to layout phase-change liquid cooling technology. Compared to single-phase indirect liquid cooling, two-phase indirect liquid cooling has a smaller temperature gradient and faster heat transfer rate. Key recommendations: HCSC (600378.SH), Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH).

2) Immersion: Immersion cooling liquids are mainly divided into synthetic oils and fluorinated liquids. ① Synthetic oil: Synthetic oils mainly include hydrocarbon synthetic oils and organosilicon oils. Among hydrocarbon synthetic oils, α-olefin (PAO) base oils have good low-temperature performance (pour point and viscosity), low volatility, and high thermal stability. Key recommendation: Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ). Silicone oils are heat-resistant and have good insulation properties, but their flowability was insufficient in the early stages, which could cause local overheating risks. Currently, the comprehensive performance of silicone oils is gradually optimized, and FOM1 (comprehensive performance of cooling liquids) meets the cooling requirements of data centers. Key recommendation: Organosilicon oil modified polyether manufacturer: Huamao Technology (603181.SH); recommended to pay attention to: Runhe Materials (300727.SZ) ② Fluorinated Liquids: Due to their high chemical stability, low dielectric constant, and good fluidity, fluorinated liquids are one of the ideal coolants for immersion cooling in data centers. Fluorinated liquids mainly include perfluorocarbons, perfluoroolefins, perfluoroamines, and perfluoropolyethers. Key recommendations: CAPCHEM (300037.SZ), Juhua Co., Ltd., Huayi Group (600623.SH), Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH); suggested to pay attention to: 8Y Space (688181.SH) (and suggested to pay attention to unlisted companies: Zhejiang Nuoya, Tianjin Changlu).

Cooling Components: Key recommendation: Debang Technology (688035.SH).

Risk Warning

Risks of data center installation volume not meeting expectations, policy risks, risks of key focus companies' performance not meeting expectations, risks of significant product price fluctuations, risks of new capacity construction not meeting expectations, and risks of discrepancies between statistical estimates and actual conditions