---
title: "Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Bull, Base and Bear Price Prediction and Forecast"
description: "Tesla's stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has seen a recent surge of 21.15%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 11.36%. Despite this, the stock is down 1.33% from its January high and 12.08% from its all-time high."
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/257395636.md"
published_at: "2025-09-15T14:15:08.000Z"
---

# Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Bull, Base and Bear Price Prediction and Forecast

> Tesla's stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has seen a recent surge of 21.15%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 11.36%. Despite this, the stock is down 1.33% from its January high and 12.08% from its all-time high. Analysts have revised price targets, with Goldman Sachs raising it to $315 and Benchmark to $475, while UBS lowered it to $215. Tesla faces challenges, including declining revenues and increased competition, but remains a leader in the EV market. The outlook is mixed, with both bullish and bearish sentiments among Wall Street analysts.

Shares of **Tesla** **Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)** surged 21.15% over the past five trading sessions after gaining 7.23% the five prior. That has finally pushed the stock into the green on the year with an 11.36% gain. Still, from its year-to-date high on Jan. 15, TSLA is down 1.33%, and since hitting its all-time high on Dec. 17, 2024, the stock has fallen 12.08%. When the company reported in July, it announced that in Q2, revenues were down 12% year over year (YoY), EPS was down 23% YoY, operating income was down 42% YoY and vehicle deliveries fell to 384,122 — down 14% YoY. Since launching in India in mid-July, Tesla has only received a paltry 600 orders.

In June and July, the EV firm has experienced a series of price target revisions from analysts. Goldman Sachs raised its price target on TSLA to $315 from $285 while maintaining a “Neutral” rating. Benchmark raised its price target on TSLA to $475 from $350 while maintaining a “Buy” rating following the successful launch of Tesla’s robotaxi business in Austin. UBS raised its price target on TSLA to $215 from $190 but maintained its “Sell” rating. Mizuho lowered its price target on TSLA to $375 from $390 while maintaining its “Outperform” rating.

Indeed, Tesla’s stock has gone through vicious crashes before. And while the stock may not be ready to shift gears from reverse to forward, I do think that a worsening of its latest drawdown could prove a significant buying opportunity, given the chance its drivers could pay off at some point over the medium term. Undoubtedly, the bears may be winning the tug-of-war on the stock now, as Elon Musk’s role at DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) becomes old news as hype surrounding Musk’s friendship with Trump begins to fade. However, with EV competition mounting and a Jeff Bezos-backed startup entering the scene, Tesla’s outlook remains clouded.

In any case, **24/7 Wall St.** dove into the lengthy list of drivers and potholes that investors should look forward to (or fasten their seatbelts for) in the coming year and beyond. Let’s check out a bull, bear, and base case for the EV titan and have a glimpse at the varied viewpoints of multiple Wall Street pros. In fact, Tesla stock has a ton of table-pounding bulls in addition to massive bears. While not everyone is the biggest fan of Elon Musk, I do think it’s a mistake to discount his ability to keep running with the ball into the endzone with disruptive innovations that, while costly in the near term, could prove revolutionary over the longer term.

-   -   Tesla remains the leader of the EV revolution, dominating global market share despite the stock’s recent struggles.
-   -   The company faces numerous headwinds, which could ultimately impact its long-term performance.
-   -   If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our **“The Next NVIDIA” report**. The report includes a complete industry map of AI investments that includes many small caps.

## **Tesla’s Top Two Growth Drivers Are Still Humming Along**

For a stock that’s fallen significantly, I’d expect the growth narrative to have been severely impacted. Tesla’s latest quarterly earnings results were not incredible. Yet, I do think that the sell-off is mostly a mere correction to make up for the euphoric melt-up experienced in the back half of last year. Indeed, investors got too far ahead of themselves when it came to Tesla’s most ambitious growth drivers. Now that investors are taking a step back, we’ll have to wait and see if Tesla can advance such drivers meaningfully.

Undoubtedly, Tesla has a front-row seat to the AI revolution. More specifically, it’s one of the frontrunners in physical AI (or robotics, if you prefer). In a prior piece, I highlighted Wall Street analyst Adam Jonas’ view that TSLA stock was akin to an embodied “AI ETF” given the numerous AI projects going on behind the scenes.

Though Tesla’s AI efforts are exciting, it’s important to note that being too soon to a trend could have a drastic negative impact on the stock. As investors reset expectations and become more critical of how firms spend money on AI, Tesla will need to deliver more substance if it’s to convince investors to punch their ticket to the stock well ahead of time. Personally, I think Tesla’s been investing in the right areas, but will competitors beat Tesla to market in certain categories?

The most notable drivers, I believe, that will drive Tesla stock in the coming years are the Cybertruck (as well as self-driving capabilities and the impact on the robotaxi market) and its Optimus robot. Of course, there’s also the rumored “Model Q” entry-level offering. But until we get more clarity on that driver, I consider it to be more of a “wild card.”

## Bull Case for Tesla’s Share Price

**Cybertruck:** The Cybertruck stole the show during Tesla’s robotaxi event. While it would be a sci-fi dream for many to have a fairly reasonably priced robotaxi producing passive income for its owners, I do think Musk’s vision of the robotaxi future could be a reality within Trump’s term. Of course, a more realistic timeframe would put such a future more than 10 years out.

However, if Tesla can floor it on full self-driving (FSD) efforts, perhaps such a future could be closer to the present. There’s a great deal of uncertainty with FSD, given the technical and regulatory unknowns. Either way, I view Musk’s friendship with Trump as a boon for a Cybertruck rollout under his administration.

If Cybertruck expands its presence and becomes a hit within years rather than decades, TSLA stock could prove a bargain, given all that there is to gain. The big question, though, is how Cybercab will hold its own as Waymo pushes ahead with its impressive offering. Given robotaxis, like generative AI, are unlikely to be a “winner takes all” market, I think there’s no reason why both robotaxi offerings can’t win big from prime-time adoption of self-driving.

Another big question to consider is whether consumers will be interested in buying up Cybercabs to have them rolling around on the streets as ride-hailers. I think the business could prove quite lucrative for buyers and Tesla’s margins over the long haul. After all, it can sell the car and continue to build a ride-hailing network while profiting from use of a ride-hailing app of sorts.

Cathie Wood thinks autonomous ride-hailing could represent a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity. If Tesla can get a nice slice, Wood sees TSLA stock at $2,600 per share by 2029. Personally, I think the bull case (for the year ahead) could see TSLA at around $550 per share — or 86.35% higher than where the stock is trading today. That target is shared by Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, one of my favorite analysts in tech.

**Optimus:** Optimus was a nice addition to the robotaxis event as it amused attendees. But the big question is how much potential the robot has once it’s ready to go on sale to the general public.

Undoubtedly, Tesla isn’t the only one getting into the robotics game. Many Mag Seven members also investing heavily in home robots. While more rivals in home robots could be a threat to Optimus, I view it as more of a confirmation that there is a place in the home for such profound innovations.

As for the home robotics market, I do see 2026 as a tad overly optimistic for a launch. However, if robot “friends” do arrive by 2030, I think Tesla’s growth rate could reaccelerate back to or even above 25% to 30% for some amount of time.

## Bear Case for Tesla’s Share Price

**Cybertruck:** Undoubtedly, there’s still a lot of work to do before Cybertruck makes an impact on the car market. FSD capabilities need to step things up and the vehicle needs to be made in a way that won’t break the bank. These are big asks. Some bears have doubts about whether the firm can execute the opportunity. In late March, the company announced that it was recalling nearly every Cybertruck due to a potential crash risk. This was an enormous blow to Musk’s ambitions for the EV, which has already been subjected to harsh criticism about its perceived shortcomings among owners.

**Analysts’ Downgrades & Lower Price Targets:** Ross Gerber, who previously owned shares, has sold out with the view a 50% crash would be in store for 2025. He also thinks FSD “doesn’t work.” If true, that’s a gut punch to Tesla’s biggest growth driver. Either way, there’s not too much room lower with TSLA now off 40%. At the start of Q2, Goldman Sachs’ price target on Tesla was lowered to $260 from $275 while maintaining a “Neutral” rating. The firm reduced its auto industry outlook and estimates, saying it will be difficult for the auto industry to fully pass on tariff costs, especially given softening consumer demand. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs’ one-year price target represents downside potential of 11.90% from today’s price.

In June, Guggenheim said Tesla’s fundamentals “continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate,” with “soft” Q2 delivery trends confirming demand for the refreshed Model Y has not helped Tesla’s sales momentum. Guggenheim, which expected “sizable” negative revisions to Q2 delivery estimates, saw that reality come true when Tesla announced the quarter’s financials in late July. The firm reiterates its “Sell” rating on the shares with a $175 price target.

**Bad Press:** Musk’s deteriorated image at the hands of his federal government involvement with DOGE aside, Tesla has continued to bear the brunt of bad news. In late 2024, it was widely reported that the EV maker was the most dangerous vehicle brand, with the number of deaths among all automakers, according to the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety. According to the study, Tesla has a fatal accident rate of 5.6 per billion vehicle miles, compared to the overall average of just 2.8. Additionally, ongoing protests against the brand — including vandalism and arson — have occurred around the globe, from Italy and France to numerous states in the U.S.

**Optimus:** Even if home robots are on the horizon, good luck asking consumers to spend thousands on a proven technology. Indeed, if Vision Pro taught us anything, it’s that being an early adopter is expensive and probably not the best use of funds. Either way, I’d much rather wait and see how the robot ambitions pan out before getting too excited at this stage.

**Insider & Institutional Activity:** There’s an old adage on Wall Street that suggests investors should “follow the money.” If that’s the current case for Tesla, money is flowing out. In fact, over the past three months, not a single share of TSLA has been purchased by insiders (e.g., the company’s executives, directors or anyone who owns 10% or more of the company), and over the past 12 months, there has only been one insider purchase, according to Nasdaq.com. Data from Finviz supports this, even showing that Musk himself, as well as his brother, have been offloading shares since late 2024. Additionally, institutional ownership has now decreased to 49.54%. In total, 159 institutional investors have entirely liquidated their Tesla positions.

**Increased competition:** Also in April, a Jeff Bezos-backed EV company called Slate unveiled affordable EV truck and SUV models that cost $20,000 after federal incentives. The company has billed itself as the “anti-Tesla,” and is made in the U.S. As Tesla’s market share has fallen under 50% in EV-friendly California, the arrival of Slate could continue to erode sales.

## Base Case for Tesla’s Share Price

The base case for Tesla lies somewhere in between the two extremes. Wall Street analysts have assigned TSLA a median one-year price target of $306.42, or 27.45% potential downside from today’s price. Meanwhile, the high-end target is $500 and the low-end target is $19.05. I’m inclined to view the $300 level as a fair-value level for the stock.

Much of Tesla’s story depends on its big growth drivers. In the meantime, EV sales and the rise of more affordable models (Model Q) could be nearer-term stories to look forward to as one waits for the biggest of drivers to pay off. At the time of writing, TSLA stock goes for 156.25 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and 13.28 times froward price-to-sales (P/S). That makes the name slightly undervalued, at least in my view.

The post Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Bull, Base and Bear Price Prediction and Forecast appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

### Related Stocks

- [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md)
- [TSDD.US - GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md)
- [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md)
- [TSLQ.US - AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md)
- [09366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA-U](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md)
- [07766.HK - XL2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md)
- [07366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md)
- [TSLR.US - GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md)

## Related News & Research

| Title | Description | URL |
|-------|-------------|-----|
| 官方 Slate 卡車的定價將在六月底公佈 | Slate Auto 將於六月底公佈其經濟型電動皮卡 “Blank Slate” 的定價。首席執行官 Chris Barman 表示，基礎型號的起售價將在 2 萬美元中段。與其他電動汽車初創公司不同，Slate 的皮卡將不提供選項，允許買家 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276389542.md) |
| 板岩的定價將在六月公佈，“空白板巖” 卡車的價格仍預計在兩萬美元中段範圍內 | Slate Auto，一家電動車初創公司，將在六月公佈其 “Blank Slate” 電動皮卡的定價。該車型預計將成為最實惠的電動車之一，初始目標定價低於 20,000 美元，儘管最近的聯邦激勵措施變化可能會影響這一點。這款卡車具有可定製的 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276367534.md) |
| 特斯拉推出了更便宜的 Cybertruck 車型，並降低了 Cyberbeast 的價格以刺激市場需求 | 特斯拉推出了一款更實惠的 Cybertruck 變體，定價為 59,990 美元，並將 Cyberbeast 車型的價格從 114,990 美元降低至 99,990 美元，以刺激在銷售下滑的情況下的需求。公司決定停產包含高級功能的豪華包，以 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276421833.md) |
| 隨着機器人出租車的推動力增強，馬斯克公佈了特斯拉 Cybercab 的價格 | 馬斯克公佈特斯拉 Cybercab 價格，機器人出租車推動力度加大 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276393415.md) |
| 特斯拉的 “最實惠” Cybertruck 已經上市。然而，馬斯克暗示它的價格不會長期保持低廉 | 特斯拉推出了其最實惠的 Cybertruck 車型，售價為 59,990 美元，顯著低於其他版本。然而，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克暗示這個價格可能不會維持太久，表示僅在接下來的 10 天內有效。公司還將其高端 Cyberbeast 車型的價格降 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276451319.md) |

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
