---
title: "Drought weather in Brazil may exacerbate supply shortages, with Arabica coffee bean prices approaching historical highs"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/257562546.md"
description: "Due to the worsening drought conditions in Brazil, Arabica coffee bean prices rose 0.8% on Tuesday, reaching $4.21 per pound, close to historical highs. Since August, coffee futures prices have increased by about 50%. Analysts point out that Brazil's export volume has declined, particularly shipments to the United States, which are more affected by tariffs. The La Niña phenomenon is expected to impact future coffee crops, further exacerbating supply tightness"
datetime: "2025-09-16T13:09:13.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/257562546.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/257562546.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/257562546.md)
---

# Drought weather in Brazil may exacerbate supply shortages, with Arabica coffee bean prices approaching historical highs

According to Zhitong Finance APP, influenced by concerns that the possible La Niña phenomenon may lead to continued drought in Brazil, a major producing country, threatening crops, coffee futures prices once broke through $4 per pound. The price of Arabica coffee beans rose by as much as 0.8% on Tuesday, reaching $4.21 per pound, not far from the historical high of $4.2995 per pound set in February this year.

Since early August, driven by drought in Brazil, tariffs imposed by the U.S. on South American supplies, and a decrease in inventory, coffee futures prices have risen by about 50%. Hedgepoint Global Markets analyst Laleska Moda stated, "We are seeing speculative buying, especially after Brazil's August export data was released and certified Arabica coffee inventories continued to decline." "Overall, shipments from Brazil to most destinations are declining, but we see that the decline in shipments to the U.S. is even greater due to tariffs."

![31.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250916/1758027811503644.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

It is reported that Brazil typically accounts for about 30% of the total U.S. coffee bean imports. The inventory of Arabica coffee beans in exchange-regulated warehouses has fallen to its lowest level since April 2024, highlighting supply tightness.

Laleska Moda noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated that there is a 71% chance of La Niña occurring from October to December, which could harm Brazil's coffee crop for 2026-2027, while many had previously hoped that this season's crop would help rebuild inventories. Weather forecasting agency Vaisala stated on Monday that drought will continue in Brazil's main coffee-producing regions this week, "adverse soil moisture and limited rainfall will be detrimental to flowering."

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