---
title: "When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates from historical highs, the US stock market rises in the following year, every time!"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/257619089.md"
description: "JP Morgan trader Craig Cohen reported that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 16 times in history when the stock market was within 1% of its all-time high, and the S&P 500 index has risen every time a year later, with an average return of nearly 15%. This conclusion actually means that when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the stock market trading price is at or slightly below its historical high, the U.S. economy has never fallen into recession"
datetime: "2025-09-16T23:25:40.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/257619089.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/257619089.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/257619089.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/257619089.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/257619089.md)


# When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates from historical highs, the US stock market rises in the following year, every time!

JP Morgan trader Craig Cohen reported that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates 16 times in history when the stock market was within 1% of its historical high, and the S&P 500 index has risen every time a year later, with an average return of nearly 15%.

This conclusion actually means: When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the stock market trading price is at or slightly below historical highs, the U.S. economy has never fallen into recession.

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