--- title: "Tesla Stock Continues to Climb. This 1 Catalyst Makes Its Growth Path Sustainable" description: "Tesla's stock has risen significantly in 2025, with a market cap of $1.3 trillion. Analysts predict it could reach $2 trillion by 2026, but the stock trades at a high price-to-sales ratio of 16, compa" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/258294924.md" published_at: "2025-09-22T07:36:04.000Z" --- # Tesla Stock Continues to Climb. This 1 Catalyst Makes Its Growth Path Sustainable > Tesla's stock has risen significantly in 2025, with a market cap of $1.3 trillion. Analysts predict it could reach $2 trillion by 2026, but the stock trades at a high price-to-sales ratio of 16, compared to competitors like Rivian and Lucid. Despite expected sales declines this year, Tesla's potential growth lies in its robotaxi service, which could add $1 trillion to its market cap. However, achieving this growth will be challenging, and investors should be cautious about the high premium for Tesla's stock. Despite a difficult start to the year, **Tesla** (TSLA 2.27%) stock is now up by double digits in 2025. With a market cap of $1.3 trillion, however, many investors are wondering how much additional growth potential shares offer. Some analysts think that Tesla can become a $2 trillion business by the end of 2026. But there are some key risks to be aware of before loading up on Tesla stock. Image source: Getty Images. ## Tesla trades at a steep premium to Rivian and Lucid Group The biggest risk facing Tesla right now is the stock's premium valuation. Shares trade at a price-to-sales ratio of around 16. Other electric car stocks like **Lucid Group** and **Rivian** have stocks that trade between 3 and 7 times sales. According to this metric, Tesla trades at a 100% to 400% premium over the competition. That's the case even though competitors like Rivian and Lucid have market caps under $20 billion, theoretically providing much longer growth runways versus Tesla's $1.3 trillion valuation. Of course, paying a high premium isn't a problem if the company in question is growing fast enough to justify such a valuation. A company that trades at 16 times trailing sales, for instance, would trade at just 8 times sales one year from now if revenues grew by 100%. That is far from the case for Tesla, however. This year, analysts expect Tesla's sales to *fall* by around 5%. For comparison, Lucid and Rivian are expected to see sales grow by 61% and 6%, respectively. Next year, analysts do expect positive growth to return for Tesla, with 20% sales growth expected. But Lucid and Rivian are still expected to see higher sales growth than Tesla, with 93% and 33% expected sales growth, respectively. So at least on a price-to-sales basis, Tesla shares trade at a hefty premium to both Lucid and Rivian even though its expected sales growth both this year *and* next year are below that of both companies. What's up with that? To be sure, competitors like Rivian and Lucid don't have the scale or brand name recognition that Tesla does. But as mentioned, both also have arguably much more room to grow long term. The main differentiator is current or near-term growth, but long term growth potential in a new and exciting -- but possibly overhyped -- business segment: robotaxis. Source: Getty Images ## Robotaxis could become a $1 trillion business for Tesla Analysts are very bullish on Tesla's robotaxi dreams. The company launched a pilot version of its autonomous taxi service this summer in Austin, Texas. Additional cities like San Francisco may soon be on the way. Tesla CEO Elon Musk optimistically believes there could be 1 million or more Tesla robotaxi's roaming the streets of America by the end of 2026. How big could this business be for Tesla? Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, believes it could soon add $1 trillion to Tesla's market cap. Cathie Wood, a high-profile, outspoken Tesla investor, believes the overall market could eventually be worth $10 trillion. Tesla is uniquely positioned to take on this market, with its large production facilities, multi-year investments in autonomous driving, and its sheer access to capital. Even if Tesla's robotaxi service stumbles in its first year -- which many skeptics predict -- the growth opportunity is clearly immense. And as mentioned, Tesla is uniquely capable of taking a leading role in this new industry. But as Reuters recently pointed out, "getting from dozens to millions of self-driving cars won't be easy." This should be viewed as a multi-decade opportunity for Tesla, not a near-term reality. Tesla's bumpy rollout in Austin should be a testament to that fact. Tesla's stock price is reasonable for long-term investors who believe in the company's robotaxi aspirations. But the premium is far too high for a simple EV manufacturer with smaller business segments in energy storage and generation. Tesla remains an exciting company to watch, but investors must be bullish on robotaxis over the long haul to justify a position. ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSDD.US - GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US - AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [09366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA-U](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [07766.HK - XL2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [07366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) - [TSLR.US - GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 特斯拉加州无人驾驶 “画饼”？监管记录显示：路测里程已连续六年为零 | 特斯拉在推进加州 Robotaxi 服务上毫无实质进展：路测里程已连续六年为零（仅 562 英里），远未达到获取运营许可的 5 万英里门槛。马斯克归咎审批流程，但专家指出现实恰恰相反：公司连最基础的测试要求都未完成，目前在湾区所谓的 “Ro | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277047898.md) | | 埃隆·马斯克预测特斯拉将在未来 20 年内建立月球工厂，并告诉投资者要 “坚持” 持有特斯拉股票：“会非常值钱” | 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克预测，该汽车制造商将在 20 年内在月球上建立工厂，并敦促投资者持有 TSLA 股票，他相信该股票将显著增值。尽管欧洲销售同比下降 17% 且市场份额下滑，马斯克对特斯拉的未来仍持乐观态度，包括在机器人技术和人工 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277145530.md) | | 报道：SpaceX 考虑最快 3 月秘密递交美国 IPO 申请 | 报道：SpaceX 考虑最快 3 月秘密递交美国 IPO 申请。风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277245069.md) | | 埃隆·马斯克对星舰 V3 实现 “完全可重复使用” 充满高度信心，但有一个问题：“SpaceX 只会尝试……” | SpaceX 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克对 Starship V3 火箭实现完全可重复使用表示信心，尽管他指出，SpaceX 将在成功完成两次海洋着陆后才会尝试用塔架捕捉火箭。该公司正将重点从火星转向月球任务，目标是在 2027 年前实现无人月 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277179946.md) | | 内部记录显示，政府在特斯拉提出 4300 万美元索赔之前就已经知道 iZEV 资金接近枯竭 | 内部文件显示，加拿大交通部早在 2024 年 11 月就已意识到 iZEV 补贴计划的资金耗尽，但公众通知却延迟到 2025 年 1 月 10 日，恰好在该计划结束之前。这导致了索赔的激增，特斯拉提交了 4300 万美元的申请。该计划的突然 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277215039.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.