---
title: "Focus on \"Black Swan\" risk hedge fund founder: S&P 500 Index will crash only after rising above 8,000 points"
description: "Mark Spitznagel, the founder of the tail risk-focused hedge fund Universa Investments, stated in an interview with Reuters that the S&P 500 index could rise by 20% due to market exuberance, reaching o"
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/258608034.md"
published_at: "2025-09-24T01:05:41.000Z"
---

# Focus on "Black Swan" risk hedge fund founder: S&P 500 Index will crash only after rising above 8,000 points

> Mark Spitznagel, the founder of the tail risk-focused hedge fund Universa Investments, stated in an interview with Reuters that the S&P 500 index could rise by 20% due to market exuberance, reaching over 8,000 points, and then face risks similar to the 1929 crash. He predicts that the stock market will decline by 80%, but this decline will only occur after experiencing a massive rally. The fund manages $20 billion in assets and focuses on hedging against "black swan" events

Mark Spitznagel, Chief Investment Officer and founder of the tail risk-focused hedge fund Universa Investments, stated in an interview with Reuters that market exuberance could drive U.S. stocks up another 20%, pushing the S&P 500 index above 8,000 points, after which a historic collapse comparable to that of 1929 would occur, as the U.S. economy is expected to collapse under the pressure of still high borrowing costs.

Spitznagel admitted that he does indeed expect the stock market to drop 80%, but this would only happen after a massive, exuberant, and historic blowout rally. He believes that U.S. stocks are currently in the middle stage of this rally, rather than at its end.

The hedge fund manages $20 billion in assets and focuses on protecting against "black swan" shocks, using investment tools including credit default swaps, stock options, and other financial derivatives that appreciate in value during extreme market dislocations

### Related Stocks

- [SPY.US - SPDR S&P 500](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPY.US.md)
- [.SPX.US - S&P 500](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.SPX.US.md)

## Related News & Research

| Title | Description | URL |
|-------|-------------|-----|
| 通脹降溫、非農勁爆，美股能否止跌企穩？ | 美國 1 月 CPI 同比降至 2.4%，低於預期，核心 CPI 降至 2.5%，創 2021 年來最低，市場對美聯儲降息預期升溫。美股三大指數漲跌不一，納指小幅下跌但企穩於 24700 點上方。美債殖利率全線下跌，資金回流美債。投資者關注 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275994601.md) |
| 美股科技巨頭利潤 “霸權” 告終？盈利增長正向全行業擴散 | 財報數據顯示，標普 500 中近半數公司實現了兩位數的增長率，中位數增長率接近 10%，創下四年來的新高。分析認為，美股市場正處於一場明顯的風格輪動之中，這種輪動並非源於科技巨頭的衰退，而是由週期性因素推動了市場其他板塊的盈利改善，美股之前 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275562134.md) |
| 現場市場——AI 被指責導致的持續修正帶來壓力，但多頭期待重新振作 | 美國主要股指平盤或略微下跌，能源板塊領跌標準普爾 500 指數，而金融板塊則表現出最大的漲幅。歐洲 STOXX 600 指數上漲約 0.5%。美元上漲，而原油、比特幣和黃金則出現下跌。分析師警告不要對近期與人工智能相關的拋售做出情緒化反應， | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276150917.md) |
| 美股的 “危險信號” | 本月標普 500 指數成分股在八個交易日內下跌 7% 或以上的股票數量已經超過 100 只，直逼 2022 年美股熊市的水平。 雖然這不像新冠疫情或關税危機期間那樣極端，但該指標超過 100 通常意味着更大範圍的下滑，而這種情況目前還沒有發 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276185288.md) |
| 貝森特和沃什的 “導師”，德魯肯米勒 Q4“精準” 開倉金融股 ETF、標普等權重 ETF 和巴西 ETF | 科技股方面，德魯肯米勒 Q4 清倉了 Meta，加倉了谷歌與 Sea。德魯肯米勒與貝森特、沃什的 “師徒” 關係讓市場推測，“德魯肯米勒經濟學”——即反赤字、反通脹、反關税——可能通過貝森特和沃什滲透至政策制定中。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276214511.md) |

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.