--- title: "Dongfang Securities: High temperatures and base disturbances affect demand, and subsequent electricity volume is expected to maintain high growth" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/258814812.md" description: "Dongfang Securities released a research report indicating that the total electricity consumption in August 2025 is expected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, with the slowdown in growth mainly due to the high base effect caused by last year's high temperatures. It is anticipated that from September to December 2025, after the base effect dissipates, electricity consumption will maintain high growth, especially in high-tech manufacturing. In August, the power generation of large-scale power plants increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with accelerated growth in wind power, while the growth rates of thermal power, nuclear power, and solar power generation slowed down" datetime: "2025-09-25T07:08:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/258814812.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/258814812.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/258814812.md) --- # Dongfang Securities: High temperatures and base disturbances affect demand, and subsequent electricity volume is expected to maintain high growth According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Securities released a research report stating that the total electricity consumption in August 2025 is expected to increase by 5.0% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 3.6 percentage points in July 2025 (2-year CAGR +6.9%, year-on-year growth rate in July 2025 -0.2 percentage points). The decline in electricity consumption growth in August is mainly related to the high base caused by high temperatures in the same period last year. It is expected that after the base effect fades from September to December 2025, high-tech manufacturing and other sectors are likely to drive electricity consumption to maintain high growth. In August 2025, the electricity generation of large-scale power plants increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate down by 1.5 percentage points compared to July 2025 (2-year CAGR 3.7%, +0.9 percentage points compared to July 2025). By power source, the growth rate of wind power accelerated in August 2025, while the growth rates of thermal power, nuclear power, and solar power slowed down, and the decline in hydropower slightly expanded. ## The main viewpoints of Dongfang Securities are as follows: **Demand growth has slowed due to high temperature base disturbances, but electricity consumption is expected to maintain high growth in the future** The total electricity consumption in August 2025 is expected to increase by 5.0% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 3.6 percentage points in July 2025 (2-year CAGR +6.9%, year-on-year growth rate in July 2025 -0.2 percentage points). The decline in electricity consumption growth in August is mainly related to the high base caused by high temperatures in the same period last year. In August 2025, the national average temperature was 22.2°C, down by 0.4°C year-on-year (the national average temperature in August 2024 was 22.6°C, the highest value for the same period since 1961). By industry, the year-on-year growth rates of electricity consumption in August 2025 for primary/secondary/tertiary industries/residential use were +9.7%/+5.0%/+7.2%/+2.4%, compared to the year-on-year growth rates in July 2025 of -10.5/+0.3/-3.5/-15.7 percentage points (2-year CAGR +7.1%/+4.5%/+9.2%/+12.6%, compared to July 2025 -3.3/-0.4/-0.1/+0.7 percentage points). In August 2025, the electricity consumption of the national manufacturing industry increased by 5.5% year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate in 2025; among which, the electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing increased by 9.1% year-on-year. It is expected that after the base effect fades from September to December 2025, high-tech manufacturing and other sectors are likely to drive electricity consumption to maintain high growth. **Slowing demand growth drags down thermal power, while hydropower growth is expected to improve marginally in the future** In August 2025, the electricity generation of large-scale power plants increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate down by 1.5 percentage points compared to July 2025 (2-year CAGR 3.7%, +0.9 percentage points compared to July 2025). By power source, the growth rate of wind power accelerated in August 2025, while the growth rates of thermal power, nuclear power, and solar power slowed down, and the decline in hydropower slightly expanded. In August 2025, hydropower decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, with the growth rate down by 0.3 percentage points compared to July 2025, mainly due to weak inflow (the average inflow of the Three Gorges in August 2025 was 15,800 cubic meters per second, down by 6.7% year-on-year). From September to December 2024, inflow is expected to weaken (the national hydropower utilization hours from September to December 2024 were 989 hours, down by 15.0% compared to the average national hydropower utilization hours from 2005 to 2024). It is expected that under a low base scenario, the growth rate of hydropower generation from September to December 2025 is likely to improve marginally In August 2025, wind power increased by 20.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate up by 14.7 percentage points compared to July 2025, which is mainly attributed to improved wind conditions. In August 2025, photovoltaic power increased by 15.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate down by 12.8 percentage points compared to July 2025. In August 2025, nuclear power increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate down by 2.4 percentage points compared to July 2025. In August 2025, thermal power increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate down by 2.6 percentage points compared to July 2025, which is mainly related to the slowdown in electricity consumption growth. **Investment Recommendations and Targets** **Investment Recommendation: Optimistic about the utility sector.** Dongfang Securities believes that under the trend of low interest rates and policies encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, dividend assets remain one of the directions worth long-term allocation. Currently, the utility sector has a comparative advantage in terms of prosperity among dividend assets; to serve the high proportion of new energy power consumption, China needs to further promote the reform of electricity market pricing to support the increasingly complex new power system construction. In the future, the electricity market will gradually provide full pricing for various attributes of electricity commodities (energy value, adjustment value, capacity value, environmental value, etc.). **Thermal Power:** In Q3 2025, the profitability of the thermal power industry is expected to continue to grow, accompanied by an increase in the compensation ratio of capacity electricity prices and the gradual development of spot markets in various provinces. Improvements in business models are already becoming apparent, and the industry's dividend capacity and willingness to distribute dividends are expected to continue to rise. Related targets: GDPD (600795.SH), Huadian International (600027.SH), Huaneng International (600011.SH). **Hydropower:** The business model is simple and excellent, with the cost per kilowatt-hour being the lowest among all power sources. Short-term fluctuations in water inflow have minimal impact on the intrinsic value of the industry. It is recommended to strategically invest in high-quality large hydropower in favorable river basins. Related targets: Yangtze Power (600900.SH), Chuan Investment Energy (600674.SH), SDIC Power (600886.SH), Huaneng Hydropower (600025.SH). **Nuclear Power:** Long-term growth in installed capacity is highly certain, and the downward risk of market-based electricity prices has been fully released. Related target: CGN Power (003816.SZ). **Wind and Solar:** Under the expectation of carbon neutrality, there is still significant growth potential for electricity generation. We are waiting for the turning point of the industry's profitability bottom, and we prefer industry companies with a high proportion of wind power. Related target: CHINA LONGYUAN (001289.SZ). **Risk Warning** Significant increase in wind and solar abandonment rates, sharp rise in coal prices, and market electricity prices lower than expected, etc ### Related Stocks - [003816.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/003816.CN.md) - [01816.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01816.HK.md) - [600795.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600795.CN.md) - [600886.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600886.CN.md) - [001289.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/001289.CN.md) - [00916.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00916.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Wind and solar surpass gas in global power milestone](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287269790.md) - [Nuclear reactor developer Deep Fission eyes $1.66 billion valuation in US IPO](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287062992.md) - [ROI-Texas cuts gas use as ERCOT clean power momentum keeps growing: Maguire](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287164492.md) - [The world built more coal power in 2025, but used less](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287133873.md) - [Tighter DSM rules for grid stability raise concerns over RE viability](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286941628.md)