Today, Japan will elect the "next Prime Minister"

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will hold a party leader election today to decide the new party chief, and the winner will effectively become Japan's next Prime Minister. According to CCTV News, there are five candidates competing in this LDP presidential election: Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi. A second round of voting may be required, with results expected to be announced after 3 PM local time. In the first round of voting, the five candidates will compete for over 590 votes. Yoshihide Suga, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi are leading in support, presenting a three-way contest. If Shinjiro Koizumi wins, he will become Japan's youngest Prime Minister since the end of World War II, while a victory for Sanae Takaichi would make her Japan's first female Prime Minister. Japanese media generally predict that the most likely outcome of this election is for Koizumi and Takaichi to enter a second round, during which, due to the significant policy differences between Yoshihide Suga and Takaichi, Suga's supporters are more likely to back Koizumi, who also advocates for continuing the "Ishiba route," thereby further expanding Koizumi's advantage. The new party leader will face the daunting task of revitalizing the ruling party and restoring public support. As the LDP has lost its majority in both houses of the Diet, the new leader will need to cooperate with opposition parties to pass legislation and budget proposals. The winner will also face diplomatic challenges. According to media reports, President Trump is expected to visit Asia in the coming weeks and may meet with the new Japanese leader in Japan or during a multilateral meeting. Election Mechanism Favors Opinions of Diet Members According to media reports, the first round of voting will be open to 916,000 ordinary LDP members, who hold 295 votes, equal to the number of votes held by LDP Diet members. However, the second round of voting will place more emphasis on the opinions of Diet members, who can vote again, while the 47 local branches will each receive only one vote. In the Diet member survey, Shinjiro Koizumi is leading, with Yoshihide Suga in second place, ahead of Sanae Takaichi. Suga needs to make significant breakthroughs in local support to enter the second round. Last year, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi were also popular candidates, but Shigeru Ishiba unexpectedly won by exploiting the political space between the two. Distinct Policy Positions Among Major Candidates Shinjiro Koizumi has downplayed previous reform commitments, shifting towards a more moderate centrist policy. He promises to ensure a wage increase of 1 million yen (6,800 USD) by 2030, link the tax-free income threshold to inflation, eliminate the gasoline tax, and revise income tax. He also plans to formulate an action plan for addressing issues related to foreigners by the end of the year. Sanae Takaichi advocates for fiscal expansion and a politically right-leaning stance, seen as a disciple of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She calls for maintaining loose monetary policy, arguing that the Bank of Japan should not raise interest rates. These views could lead to a weaker yen, a rising stock market, and higher yields on ultra-long-term government bonds. Yoshihide Suga, as the current government's chief spokesperson, is most aligned with the current government's stance. He has held key positions such as Foreign Minister and Defense Minister, promising to ensure wage increases exceed the inflation rate and proposing the introduction of a UK-style universal credit system Diplomatic Challenges Loom In addition to livelihood issues, the new Prime Minister will soon face significant diplomatic tests after taking office. According to media reports, President Trump is expected to visit Asia in the coming weeks and may meet with the new Japanese leader during his visit to Japan or at a multilateral conference. Currently, Japan has largely completed negotiations on a trade agreement with the United States and has ensured that auto tariffs will be reduced to 15%. However, issues may still arise during the implementation of the $550 billion investment fund, and Washington's demands regarding defense spending from allied countries may also become a focal point of discussion