---
title: "Daiwa raised ZTO Express's rating to \"Buy\" and increased the target price to 11 yuan"
description: "Daiwa's research report upgraded J&T EXPRESS-W's rating from \"Hold\" to \"Buy,\" with a target price raised from 10 yuan to 11 yuan. The report pointed out that J&T's parcel volume in the third quarter i"
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/261170469.md"
published_at: "2025-10-15T03:12:43.000Z"
---

# Daiwa raised ZTO Express's rating to "Buy" and increased the target price to 11 yuan

> Daiwa's research report upgraded J&T EXPRESS-W's rating from "Hold" to "Buy," with a target price raised from 10 yuan to 11 yuan. The report pointed out that J&T's parcel volume in the third quarter increased by 23% year-on-year, with particularly outstanding performance in the Southeast Asian market, which grew by 78.7%. Although parcel volume growth in the Chinese market has slowed, the company has competitive advantages in the new growth phase. It is expected that earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 will be raised by 7%, reflecting an increase in the forecast for parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia to 65%

Daiwa's research report indicates that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) saw a year-on-year increase of 23% in total package volume in the third quarter, reaching 7.677 billion pieces. The performance in Southeast Asia was particularly outstanding, with a year-on-year growth of 78.7% to approximately 2 billion pieces, exceeding management and the bank's expectations. The bank believes that the Southeast Asian express delivery market has entered a new development stage due to intensified platform competition and market share consolidation. Considering J&T's market positioning and competitive costs, the company is expected to have an advantage in this new growth phase.

Additionally, in the third quarter, J&T's package volume in China and other new markets grew by 10.4% and 48% year-on-year, respectively. In the Chinese market, driven by industry efforts to counteract excessive competition, the average price improved quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, but the industry's package volume growth slowed, which also increased unit costs during the period. Therefore, management maintains a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook for the entire year's domestic business. Given J&T's continuous optimization of its domestic customer structure, the bank maintains a cautious view on the impact of counteracting excessive competition on profitability.

The bank raised its earnings per share forecast for J&T for 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 11%, reflecting an upward adjustment in the Southeast Asian package volume growth forecast to 65%, while the forecast for package volume growth in China was downgraded to the mid-teens. The rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" due to the defensive growth in Southeast Asia and new markets amid uncertainties in China-U.S. trade; the target price was raised from 10 HKD to 11 HKD

### Related Stocks

- [01519.HK - J&T EXPRESS-W](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01519.HK.md)

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.