--- title: "Shenwan Hongyuan: Coal prices rebound, optimistic about further recovery of coal companies' performance in the fourth quarter" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/261184282.md" description: "Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report indicating that from January to August 2025, the national raw coal production reached 3.165 billion tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. It is expected that production will not be released on a large scale in the fourth quarter. The prices of thermal coal and coking coal have rebounded month-on-month, recommending undervalued stocks Shanxi Coking Coal and high-dividend stock China Shenhua, while paying attention to JHSCIC. On the supply side, raw coal production has increased, but coal imports have decreased by 11.1% year-on-year. It is expected that the performance of key companies in the coal industry will exceed expectations in the third quarter report of 2025" datetime: "2025-10-15T06:09:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/261184282.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/261184282.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/261184282.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Shenwan Hongyuan: Coal prices rebound, optimistic about further recovery of coal companies' performance in the fourth quarter According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that according to statistics bureau data, the cumulative national raw coal production from January to August 2025 reached 3.165 billion tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. Due to the impact of capacity verification documents and stricter safety supervision, it is expected that production will not be released on a large scale in the fourth quarter. In Q3 2025, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal both rebounded month-on-month. In terms of targets, it is recommended to focus on undervalued elastic targets such as Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ); optimistic about the rebound in thermal coal prices driven by seasonal demand recovery, recommending stable operation high dividend targets such as China Shenhua (601088.SH); in addition, it is suggested to pay attention to elastic targets for thermal coal such as JHSCIC (601001.SH). ## Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows: **Supply side: Domestic raw coal production increases, but coal imports decrease year-on-year** According to statistics bureau data, the cumulative national raw coal production from January to August 2025 reached 3.165 billion tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative coal imports from January to September 2025 reached 350 million tons, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year. Due to the impact of capacity verification documents and stricter safety supervision, it is expected that production will not be released on a large scale in the fourth quarter. **In Q3 2025, the prices of thermal coal and coking coal both rebounded month-on-month** According to data from the China Coal Market Network, the average spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports in Q3 2025 was approximately 673 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 20.66% compared to 848 yuan/ton in Q3 2024, and an increase of about 6.75% compared to 630 yuan/ton in Q2 2025. The average price of Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jing Tang Port in Q3 2025 was 1564 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.23% year-on-year compared to Q3 2024, and an increase of 19.09% compared to Q2 2025. **Expected performance of key companies in the coal industry for Q3 2025 is as follows** There are 4 companies with performance exceeding expectations: China Shenhua (2025Q1-3 eps 1.97, YOY -15.01%; coal production and sales growth in Q3), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (1.29, -21.46%; coal production increased year-on-year, coal prices rose), Shanxi Coal International (0.64, -38.99%; both volume and price increased in Q3); Electric Power Investment Energy (1.91, -2.39%, the company's long-term coal contracts account for a high proportion, with stable prices, and benefiting from the rise in electrolytic aluminum prices). There are 9 companies with performance basically in line with expectations: China Coal Energy (0.89, -18.92%, coal prices rebounded in Q3, good cost control); Yanzhou Coal Mining (2025Q1-3 eps 0.70, YOY -48.67%; rebound in domestic and international coal prices in Q3, increased sales inventory); Lu'an Environmental Energy (0.68, -27.33%; coal prices fell, but good cost control); Shanxi Coking Coal (0.25, -49.45%; coking coal prices fell); Huaibei Mining (0.51, -68%; production and sales decreased, coking coal prices fell); Huayang Co., Ltd. (0.28, -43.36%, coal prices fell at the production site, but the Qiyuan mine was put into production, and Yushupo's reserves increased, so the company's production increased in 2025); JHSCIC (0.74, -42.84%; coal prices fell at the production site); Pingmei Shenma Group (0.15, -82.28%; coking coal prices fell); Xinji Energy (0.51, -26.52%); Cost control has led to a smaller decline in coal gross profit, with an increase in electricity sales. There is one company that fell short of expectations: Shaanxi Black Cat (2025Q1-3 EPS is -0.32, YOY -3.82%; coking coal prices are under pressure in stages). **Target Aspects** We strongly recommend undervalued elastic targets Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ), Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH); we are optimistic about the rebound in demand during the peak season driving a continuous rebound in thermal coal prices, and recommend stable operation high dividend high yield targets China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH); in addition, we suggest paying attention to elastic thermal coal targets JHSCIC (601001.SH), Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348.SH), TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH), and Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH). **Risk Warning** Macroeconomic downturn exceeds expectations, coal demand is lower than expected; international coal prices fall below expectations ### Related Stocks - [000983.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000983.CN.md) - [CSUAY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CSUAY.US.md) - [601088.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601088.CN.md) - [01088.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01088.HK.md) - [601001.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601001.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [China Shenhua signs start notice for TT mine expansion exploration in Mongolia](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296561021.md) - [Bafang’s new electric bike motors produce 8x your own pedaling power](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297065285.md) - [Yankuang Energy Triples Glencore Coal Sales Cap Amid Market Volatility](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296769136.md) - [ReVolve Renewable Power secures MXN 450 million project financing facility with Banco Multiva](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297172638.md) - [Yancoal renews coal sales framework deals with Yankuang Energy, YIT for US$199.9 million cap](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296880283.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**