--- title: "CATHAY PAC AIR Tong: Express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, anti-involution begins profit recovery" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/262800913.md" description: "CATHAY PAC AIR and Haitong Securities released a research report indicating that the phenomenon of anti-involution in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, increasing the average revenue per order for companies. It is expected that the profitability of e-commerce express delivery will significantly recover in the second half of the year and next year. They recommend paying attention to the performance improvement opportunities in the e-commerce express delivery sector, maintaining an overweight rating on SF Holding, and are optimistic about related targets such as YTO and ZTO Express. It is anticipated that the volume of express delivery business will continue to grow, industry price competition will ease, and the unit price of express delivery is expected to stabilize and recover" datetime: "2025-10-27T01:44:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/262800913.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/262800913.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/262800913.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/262800913.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/262800913.md) # CATHAY PAC AIR Tong: Express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, anti-involution begins profit recovery According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the anti-involution in the express delivery industry has spread nationwide, significantly increasing the per-ticket revenue for companies and will clearly restore the profitability of e-commerce express delivery companies in the second half of this year and next year, with profit elasticity depending on the sustainability of price increases. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities for certainty improvement in e-commerce express delivery performance. Maintain an "overweight" rating on SF Holding (002352.SZ), with related targets including YTO Express (600233.SH), ZTO Express-W (02057), Jimi Express-W (01519), and Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120.SZ). The bank stated that the trend of small parcelization in the industry continues, and it is expected that business volume will maintain resilient growth. By August 2025, the cumulative express delivery business volume reached 128.2 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% (on a comparable basis), achieving counter-cyclical growth. The trend of small parcelization continues, coupled with the release of consumption potential in lower-tier markets such as the central and western regions and rural areas, the industry business volume is expected to achieve resilient growth in the second half of 2025 and in 2026. From January to August 2025, the per-ticket revenue of the express delivery industry was 7.48 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, which is a narrowing of the decline compared to the 12.3% year-on-year drop at the end of 2024, reflecting a slowdown in price competition in the industry under anti-involution regulation. Considering that this round of "anti-involution" has characteristics of broader coverage, earlier onset, and larger increases, coupled with the upcoming peak season for e-commerce, the express delivery unit price is expected to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2025 and in 2026. The scale effect is weakening, and unmanned vehicles are opening up cost reduction space at the end. Under the trend of small parcelization, the scale effect is weakening, and the core cost per ticket is declining at a slower pace. As the cost reduction space for transportation and transfer costs narrows, unmanned vehicle technology will open up cost reduction space for last-mile delivery. In addition, the new social security regulations will lead to a short-term increase in per-ticket costs, but in the long term, it is expected to promote the industry's transformation towards value competition ### Related Stocks - [SF Holding (002352.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002352.CN.md) - [YTO (600233.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600233.CN.md) - [CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00293.HK.md) - [ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ZTO.US.md) - [ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02057.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Huachuang Securities Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. 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