UBS raises China's electricity demand forecast for 2028 to 2030, prefers Harbin Electric and CGN Power

UBS published a report stating that it is more optimistic about the demand in China's electricity market, expecting electricity demand in China to grow by 8% from 2028 to 2030, which is double the previous forecast. Although the bank had already identified artificial intelligence data centers, exports, and electrification as structural driving factors, it anticipates that the impact of these factors will significantly exceed original expectations.

The bank's adjustments reflect increased confidence in the construction of artificial intelligence data centers, accelerated growth in electricity exports, and the acceleration of electrification, which will benefit capital expenditures in power equipment and grids starting next year. The bank has raised its earnings forecasts for relevant stocks from this year to 2027 by 2% to 18%, and upgraded the investment ratings for Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ) and CGN Power (01816.HK) to "Buy," noting that the forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for its preferred stocks in 2026 is only 15.6 times, lower than the historical average of 22 times and the global industry average of 50 times.

The bank's top picks are Harbin Electric (01133.HK) and CGN Power, and it also favors Dongfang Electric (01072.HK), Siyi Electric (002028.SZ), Yingliu Co., Ltd. (603308.SH), Goldwind (02208.HK), and Daikin Heavy Industries.

Stock│Investment Rating│Target Price

Goldwind (02208.HK)│Buy│HKD 15.5→HKD 25

Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ)│Neutral→Buy│RMB 29→RMB 70

Yingliu Co., Ltd. (603308.SH)│Buy│RMB 40.1→RMB 55

Siyi Electric (002028.SZ)│Buy│RMB 93→RMB 170

Harbin Electric (01133.HK)│Buy│HKD 18→HKD 25.5

Dongfang Electric (01072.HK)│Buy│HKD 23.6→HKD 32.9

CGN Power (01816.HK)│Neutral→Buy│HKD 3.4→HKD 5