Guosheng Securities: The popularity of ice and snow tourism is rising, and the Spring and Autumn Festival holidays are expected to boost off-season travel

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that, according to Meituan Travel data, since mid-October, the search volume for "outdoor ski resorts" has increased by nearly 900% year-on-year. The search volume for the early-opening Keketohai International Ski Resort has risen by 279%, and the daily average search volume for Harbin Ice and Snow World has increased by nearly 163% month-on-month. As the Q4 snow season kicks off, it is recommended to pay attention to ice and snow tourism concept stocks. Regarding spring and autumn travel, under the encouragement of policies to expand service consumption, spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools across various regions are about to be implemented. The 5-day holiday brought by the spring and autumn breaks, combined with discounts from various scenic spots, is expected to bring new opportunities to the traditional off-peak travel season.

Guosheng Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

The popularity of ice and snow tourism is rising, and the concept market is starting

The scale of the ice and snow economy is expected to exceed one trillion yuan, with policy effects becoming evident. In October 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Stimulating the Vitality of the Ice and Snow Economy through High-Quality Development of Ice and Snow Sports," stating that by 2027, the total scale of the ice and snow economy will reach 1.2 trillion yuan, and by 2030, it will reach 1.5 trillion yuan. According to Xinhua News Agency, after the issuance of the opinions, from November 1, 2024, to February 4, 2025, a total of 934 ski resorts across 31 provinces (regions, municipalities) in the country received 151 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%.

The popularity of ice and snow tourism has already warmed up in Q4 2025

Meituan Travel data shows that since mid-October, the search volume for "outdoor ski resorts" has increased by nearly 900% year-on-year, the search volume for the early-opening Keketohai International Ski Resort has risen by 279%, and the daily average search volume for Harbin Ice and Snow World has increased by nearly 163% month-on-month. According to Tongcheng Travel data, after the new snow season opened at Keketohai International Ski Resort, hotel bookings in the Altay region increased by over 35% year-on-year, and domestic flight bookings to the Altay region increased by over 65% year-on-year.

The ice and snow tourism concept market is starting

The Wind Ice and Snow Tourism Concept Index rose 6.34% this week (October 20-24), outperforming the Shenwan Consumer Services Index by 3.74 percentage points. This month (as of October 24), it has risen 10.24%, outperforming the Shenwan Consumer Services Index by 10.42 percentage points. Among them, the concept stocks Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya rose 6.19% and 22.91% this week, and 10.88% and 37.46% this month, respectively. As the Q4 snow season kicks off, it is recommended to pay attention to ice and snow tourism concept stocks, such as Changbai Mountain.

Spring and autumn breaks are about to be implemented in various regions, with many scenic spots launching discount measures, expected to boost off-peak travel performance

Under the encouragement of policies to expand service consumption, spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools across various regions are about to be implemented. On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption," proposing to optimize student holiday arrangements, improve supporting policies, and explore the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools. According to Shangguan News, the autumn break time in places such as Ningbo, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Jinhua Lanxi, Taizhou Jiaojiang, Taizhou Sanmen, Taizhou Tiantai, and Foshan in Guangdong is scheduled for November 12-14, 2025, connecting with the weekend of the 15th and 16th, forming a 5-day holiday; the autumn break time in Quzhou, Zhejiang is tentatively set for November 19-21, connecting with the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd; the autumn break time in Jinhua (excluding Lanxi) is generally arranged for November 21-25, also connecting with the weekend of November 22 and 23 November, as a traditional off-peak travel season, sees many scenic spots launching promotional measures

According to various scenic spots' official announcements, from October 15 to November 30, 2025, Changbai Mountain offers exclusive free admission for university students from the three northeastern provinces. All visitors purchasing any ticket for the North Scenic Area or West Scenic Area can buy another scenic area ticket for free within three days; Huangshan Scenic Area visitors can receive a chance to visit again for free between December 1, 2025, and January 31, 2026, by presenting their ticket information from October to November 2025; Emei Mountain offers a ticket discount price of 40 yuan per person for full-time students from October 9 to November 30, 2025.

Spring and autumn holidays combined with scenic area discounts are expected to boost off-peak travel performance

On October 15, Guangzhilv, a subsidiary of Lingnan Group, announced the launch of a series of themed products titled "Traveling with Textbooks," along with nearly 20 autumn holiday study tour routes aimed at school groups. According to data from Tongcheng Travel & Qunar Travel, popular family flights departing between November 12-16 have increased nearly 100% year-on-year, with ticket bookings from Ningbo/Foshan increasing by 2.18/2.76 times year-on-year. The 5-day mini-holiday brought by the spring and autumn holidays, combined with various scenic area discounts, is expected to bring new opportunities to the traditional off-peak travel season. It is recommended to pay attention to Changbai Mountain (603099.SH), Lingnan Holdings (000524.SZ), Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism (600576.SH), Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH), and Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH), among others.

Investment Suggestions

In the short term, focus on the certainty of third-quarter report performance and the elasticity of sub-sectors during the peak Spring Festival season in Q4 2025 & Q1 2026. In the medium term, look favorably on four main lines: high growth in new consumption, reversal of transformation and reform difficulties, overseas expansion, and favorable policies.

Risk Warning

Consumer recovery may fall short of expectations; industry competition may intensify; uncertainty in regulatory policies