--- title: "Is Meritage Homes' (MTH) Streak of Beating Estimates Masking Deeper Growth Pressure?" description: "Meritage Homes is set to report its third-quarter results, with analysts predicting a 7.6% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.47 billion. Despite consistently beating revenue expectations for eight " type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/262917909.md" published_at: "2025-10-27T13:35:40.000Z" --- # Is Meritage Homes' (MTH) Streak of Beating Estimates Masking Deeper Growth Pressure? > Meritage Homes is set to report its third-quarter results, with analysts predicting a 7.6% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.47 billion. Despite consistently beating revenue expectations for eight quarters, the company faces ongoing growth pressures and margin risks. The Board's recent increase of the share buyback plan to $1.25 billion supports its investment narrative. Projections indicate Meritage could reach $7.1 billion in revenue by 2028, with a fair value estimate of $83.88, suggesting a 17% upside from its current price. Market opinions on the stock's value vary significantly. - Earlier this week, Meritage Homes announced it will report third-quarter results on Tuesday, with analysts projecting a 7.6% year-over-year decline in revenue to US$1.47 billion and a continuation of recent slower growth trends. - An interesting aspect is that Meritage Homes has managed to exceed Wall Street’s revenue expectations for eight straight quarters, consistently outperforming even with overall declines in revenue. - We'll examine how Meritage Homes’ consistent outperformance of revenue estimates ahead of Q3 earnings may influence its broader investment narrative. We've found 17 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. ## Meritage Homes Investment Narrative Recap Being a Meritage Homes shareholder today means believing in the company’s ability to expand community count and maintain a leading position in affordable, move-in-ready homes, despite ongoing affordability challenges and market headwinds. The latest news of a projected 7.6% year-over-year revenue decline underscores persistent demand-related pressures, but, for now, this does not materially alter the near-term catalyst of community growth or the immediate risk around shrinking gross margins from continued pricing incentives. One of the most relevant recent announcements is the Board's August 2025 increase of Meritage’s share buyback plan by US$500 million to a total of US$1.25 billion. This move reinforces the capital allocation story that supports Meritage’s investment case and mitigates short-term pressures on share price, particularly as margin and backlog risks remain elevated. In contrast, investors should also be mindful of the potential for sudden market demand shifts, especially given … Read the full narrative on Meritage Homes (it's free!) Meritage Homes is projected to reach $7.1 billion in revenue and $549.0 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes a 4.8% annual revenue growth rate but reflects a decrease of $89.3 million in earnings from the current $638.3 million. Uncover how Meritage Homes' forecasts yield a $83.88 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price. ## Exploring Other Perspectives Fair value estimates from four members of the Simply Wall St Community span from US$29.25 to US$225 per share, showcasing dramatic divergence in outlook. While current consensus highlights margin compression as a central risk, opinions in the market are far from settled, so you’ll want to consider these varied viewpoints. Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Meritage Homes - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price! ## Build Your Own Meritage Homes Narrative Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd. - A great starting point for your Meritage Homes research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. - Our free Meritage Homes research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Meritage Homes' overall financial health at a glance. ## Curious About Other Options? The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run: - This technology could replace computers: discover 28 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality. - The end of cancer? These 27 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's. - Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward. *This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. **We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.** It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.* ### Related Stocks - [MTH.US - Meritage Homes](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MTH.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | Meritage Homes（MTH）第四季度財報預期 | Meritage Homes 將於本週三公佈其第四季度財報。上個季度，它的收入未能達到預期，差距為 3.4%，收入為 14.2 億美元，同比下降 10.8%。分析師預計本季度將進一步下降 8%，預計收入為 14.9 億美元，調整後的每股收益 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273780942.md) | | 信安金融集團增加了在 Meritage Homes Corporation $MTH 的持股比例 | Principal Financial Group Inc. 在第三季度將其在 Meritage Homes Corporation 的持股增加了 13.1%，目前持有 402,664 股，價值 2917 萬美元。其他對沖基金也增加了持股， | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275199215.md) | | 古巴將停供航空燃料 1 個月 美切斷供油能源危機加劇 | 古巴因美國對委內瑞拉的制裁，將暫停供應航空燃料 1 個月，導致航空公司需前往其他地點加油。美國切斷了古巴的石油供應，古巴面臨能源危機，可能出現全面停電。為應對危機，古巴政府已採取緊急措施，包括縮短工作時間和限制燃料銷售。古巴總統表示願意與美 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275409810.md) | | Europower Enerji 表示贏得了一項價值 130 萬美元的電力變壓器銷售招標 | 歐電能量與自動化技術工業貿易有限公司：歐電能量 - 贏得價值 130 萬美元的電力變壓器招標 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276325747.md) | | 費城這個週末會再次下雪嗎？以下是模型的預測結果 | 氣象預報員正在跟蹤本週日可能出現的東北風暴，該風暴可能會給費城帶來大雪或大雨。目前的模型對風暴的影響存在分歧，週末之前氣温保持温和。該風暴可能發展成一個主要系統，導致中大西洋地區和新英格蘭出現大雪、沿海洪水和強風。氣温將在週日晚上降至 30 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276291229.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.