---
title: "China Merchants Securities: Three factors are expected to drive the medium to long-term gold price center upward. Current gold stock valuations remain at historical lows, and gold stock prices will later restore their correlation with gold prices"
description: "CITIC Securities analysts point out that gold prices are highly volatile in the short term, but in the medium to long term, three major factors will drive the central price of gold upward: continuous "
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/263189047.md"
published_at: "2025-10-29T01:02:32.000Z"
---

# China Merchants Securities: Three factors are expected to drive the medium to long-term gold price center upward. Current gold stock valuations remain at historical lows, and gold stock prices will later restore their correlation with gold prices

> CITIC Securities analysts point out that gold prices are highly volatile in the short term, but in the medium to long term, three major factors will drive the central price of gold upward: continuous purchases of gold by global central banks, gold ETFs turning into net buyers, and market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Currently, the valuations of gold stocks are at historical lows, and they are expected to recover in line with gold prices. It is recommended to pay attention to LINGBAO GOLD and TONGGUAN GOLD, among others

CITIC Securities stated that short-term gold price fluctuations are significant, but in the medium to long term, there are three factors that will continue to drive the upward movement of gold prices; currently, gold stock valuations remain at historically low levels, and in the future, gold stock prices will recover in line with gold prices. CITIC Securities analysts, including Zhang Xia, mentioned in their report that these three factors include: global central banks continuously purchasing gold to hedge against dollar credit risk; global gold ETFs shifting from net sellers to net buyers of gold; and market expectations that the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates within the year, with the possibility of more aggressive cuts after a leadership change next year. Gold valuations are still at acceptable levels, and compared to theoretical calculations, there is still room for improvement in gold allocations by domestic institutions in China. Since mid-October, gold stocks have failed to follow the rise in gold prices, mainly because gold prices have surged significantly since August, leading to overbought technical indicators and a cautious equity market, causing gold stocks to peak and decline ahead of gold prices. As gold prices pull back from high levels and build a bottom, gold stocks will return to align with gold prices. Gold stock valuations remain at historically low levels, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of only about 30 times, and indicators excluding large-cap influences are also at historically low levels. Recommended stocks to pay attention to include LINGBAO GOLD, TONGGUAN GOLD, Zijin Mining International, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shanjin International, and China National Gold, while for silver, focus on Industrial Bank Silver and Shengda Resources

### Related Stocks

- [03330.HK - LINGBAO GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03330.HK.md)
- [00340.HK - TONGGUAN GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/00340.HK.md)

## Related News & Research

| Title | Description | URL |
|-------|-------------|-----|
| Zijin Gold Unit Renews Gold Sales Arrangement with Kyrgyzstan-based Gold Producer | Zijin Gold Unit Renews Gold Sales Arrangement with Kyrgyzstan-based Gold Producer | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276427417.md) |
| Gold above $5,000 as geopolitics drive safe-haven demand | Gold prices held above the $5,000 mark, as a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and fears of a potential strike ag | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276425519.md) |
| PRECIOUS-Gold gains over 1% on soft US data, Trump's fresh tariff move | Gold prices increased by over 1% due to disappointing U.S. GDP data and President Trump's announcement of new global tar | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276480913.md) |
| South Africa's Gold Fields profit more than doubles as bullion surges | Gold Fields said on Thursday its full-year profit more than doubled, driven by record-high bullion prices and increased  | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276302234.md) |
| Gold & Silver Look to Snap a Two Day Losing Streak | Gold & Silver Look to Snap a Two Day Losing Streak | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276245673.md) |

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
