According to the latest precious metals weekly report released by Metals Focus, the overall trend of precious metals in 2025 is very impressive. As of mid-October, the gold price has risen 66% this year, repeatedly hitting historical highs, with the latest peak surpassing $4,380 per ounce. This strong performance is mainly driven by multiple factors, including: ongoing uncertainty regarding tariff policies after the new U.S. government took office; increasing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt; a continued weakening of the dollar; central banks increasing their gold holdings; and rising market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026 and set new records. Consistent with the trends of 2025, the ongoing uncertainty of U.S. trade policies and their impact on the global economy are expected to remain key factors influencing market sentiment towards gold.
Precious Metal Price Performance Index
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*January 3, 2025 = 100
Data Source: Bloomberg
Gold investment will also benefit from declining interest rates, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. In the next 12 months, inflationary pressures driven by tariffs may initially intensify and then gradually ease, a process that may lead to a more noticeable decline in real interest rates. Additionally, due to the deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook and ongoing market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, confidence in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds is likely to struggle to recover significantly.
Geopolitical tensions are expected to persist. Coupled with widespread macroeconomic uncertainty, investor interest in diversified asset allocation is expected to remain strong. The ongoing gold purchasing behavior of central banks will also provide solid support for gold prices. Although the scale of central bank gold purchases may be lower than the historical peaks of 2022-2024, central banks will still maintain a net buying scale above historical averages due to considerations of reducing dependence on the dollar.
Metals Focus predicts that gold prices will challenge the $5,000 per ounce mark in 2026. The average gold price for the entire year of 2026 is expected to reach approximately $4,560 per ounce, an increase of about 33% year-on-year.
The trend of silver is expected to be driven by the same multiple factors as gold, including uncertainty in policy outlook, risks of slowing global economic growth, and rising demand for safe-haven assets. Due to strong investment and demand from India, structural supply-demand gaps, and policy uncertainties leading to large amounts of silver inventory being stuck in the U.S., the physical silver supply in the London market is expected to remain relatively tight in the short term. Although some industries have begun to reduce silver usage at record high prices, many industrial applications will still require time to adjust, meaning overall demand will not immediately decline significantly. Furthermore, the reduction in demand caused by silver conservation and alternative materials will be offset by robust demand in other areas, especially silver bar and coin investment demand, which is expected to regain growth momentum next year driven by strong buying in India
Gold and Silver Price Ratio
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Data Source: Bloomberg
As the physical silver supply in the London market remains tight, silver prices are expected to continue outperforming gold in the short term. However, starting from mid-2026, gold is expected to regain its leading position, mainly because the tight physical supply of silver will gradually ease, and high prices may suppress demand for silver in certain sectors. Subsequently, silver prices may break through $60 per ounce in the second half of 2026, with an average annual price expected to reach $57 per ounce.
So far this year, platinum prices have risen over 80%, primarily driven by the increase in gold prices and ongoing supply tightness, a trend that is expected to continue until 2026. Due to tariff policies, a large amount of metals has been shipped to the United States, with speculative and safe-haven buying flowing into China. Before the implementation of tariffs, metals stored in London or Zurich could circulate freely worldwide, with almost no logistical barriers; however, the current trade barriers have disrupted this pattern, prompting more inventory to be held locally. This change has increased overall inventory demand and affected the supply of metals available in traditional trading centers. It is expected that the platinum market will experience a supply-demand shortage for the fourth consecutive year in 2026. However, platinum price fluctuations will be more influenced by gold price trends, investment demand, and inventory levels. The average platinum price in 2026 is expected to reach $1,670, a year-on-year increase of 34%.
Platinum and Palladium Physical Supply Surplus/Shortage
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Data Source: Bloomberg, Metals Focus
Palladium has also joined the rally in precious metals, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%. However, due to its relatively weak long-term fundamentals, palladium's early gains lagged behind those of platinum and gold. In the past month, palladium prices have rebounded significantly, mainly driven by tariff risks—including the Section 232 investigation and the anti-dumping complaint jointly submitted by Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers Union. These factors have collectively boosted the recent strong performance of palladium prices. It is expected that these short-term factors will trigger a brief surge in palladium prices at the beginning of 2026, potentially reaching $2,000 per ounce. However, as trade flows gradually adjust, the weak fundamentals are expected to reassert dominance in the market, with the average annual palladium price projected to be $1,340 per ounce, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. The palladium market is expected to continue experiencing supply shortages in 2026, but the scale of the gap is expected to narrow as metal recycling supply increases and demand from the automotive industry slows
The physical supply shortage of three other platinum group metals (rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium) is expected to ease by 2026. This is mainly driven by an increase in rhodium recycling supply and a slowdown in demand in some end-use sectors for ruthenium and iridium. The supply-demand gap for rhodium is expected to narrow by nearly half, but due to low ground stocks, the market will remain tight, and there is a possibility that prices may soar again to $10,000 per ounce in the short term. The average price of rhodium for the year is expected to be around $7,500 per ounce, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The supply-demand gap for ruthenium is expected to narrow by about one-third, mainly affected by a decline in chemical demand, while sufficient ground stocks are expected to be enough to cover the shortfall. The average price of ruthenium for the year is expected to be $780 per ounce, a year-on-year increase of 5%. As demand for iridium in electronic products weakens, the supply-demand gap for iridium is expected to nearly disappear, with prices expected to rise only slightly by about 5%, to around $4,600 per ounce.
Other platinum group metals demand coverage months
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Data source: Metals Focus

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Metals Focus predicts that gold prices will challenge $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an average price of approximately $4,560 per ounce for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 33%. In 2025, gold prices are expected to rise by 66% during the year, mainly driven by uncertainties in U.S. government tariffs, a weakening dollar, and increased gold purchases by central banks. It is anticipated that inflation pressures and declining real interest rates will impact gold investments in the next 12 months, and central bank gold buying behavior will continue to support gold prices

Metals Focus: It is expected that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026