---
title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Musk's Expensive Compensation Plan Vote Approaches, Federal Reserve Officials Speak Intensively"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/264636206.md"
description: "On November 6th, U.S. stock index futures all rose, with Dow futures up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures up 0.09%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.06%. The German DAX index fell 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.37%. Market analysis indicates that despite stock indices being close to historical highs, there are ominous signals that may suggest a period of weakness in the stock market. Deutsche Bank AG is exploring strategies to hedge against AI-related risks, including shorting related stocks"
datetime: "2025-11-06T11:49:04.000Z"
locales:
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/264636206.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264636206.md)
---

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# U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Musk's Expensive Compensation Plan Vote Approaches, Federal Reserve Officials Speak Intensively

## Pre-Market Market Trends

1.  As of November 6 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.09%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.06%.

![21.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251106/1762429231774809.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.08%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.37%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.44%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.04%.

![22.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251106/1762429234907319.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

1.  As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.64%, priced at $59.98 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.49%, priced at $63.83 per barrel.

![23.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20251106/1762429237487603.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

## Market News

**Is the prosperity of U.S. stocks just an illusion? "Titanic" ominous signs emerge, beware of the iceberg!** Despite some moderate weakness over the past week or so, the trading prices of major U.S. stock indices on Wednesday are still just a few percentage points away from historical highs. However, according to a report released by SentimenTrader on Wednesday, the market appears calm on the surface, but there may be undercurrents. Recently, a series of ominous signs related to the number of stocks participating in the rally have emerged. The report states that previous clusters of these signals have indicated a period of sustained weakness in the stock market. In the past five trading days, the "Nasdaq Titanic Syndrome" has flashed four times. Meanwhile, another market breadth indicator that has caught the attention of technical analysts, the "Hindenburg Omen," has also triggered twice. The SentimenTrader report points out that when either of these two signals, or both, triggers five times or more within five trading days, it usually indicates that trouble is imminent.

**After pouring billions into loans, Deutsche Bank is secretly positioning to "short the AI bubble"!** Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge its risk exposure in data centers, having previously provided billions of dollars in loans to meet the demand for artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The bank is considering various options, including shorting a basket of AI-related stocks to help mitigate downside risk by betting on the decline of companies in this sector. The bank is also considering a trade known as synthetic risk transfer (SRT) to use derivatives to purchase default protection on some of the debt. It is reported that Deutsche Bank's investment banking business has "bet heavily" on data center financing. However, the scale of spending on AI infrastructure has raised concerns about a bubble forming, with some even comparing this enthusiasm to the scene before the internet bubble burst **If Trump's tariffs are abolished, will the US stock market trigger a "rocket" rally?** The US Supreme Court justices expressed significant doubts on Wednesday regarding Trump's unilateral authority to impose comprehensive tariffs. Following this news, the US stock market surged. If the Supreme Court ultimately rules that Trump does not have the authority to bypass Congress to initiate trade conflicts, then Wednesday's market performance may only be the prelude to a market celebration. Once the tariffs are overturned, it will undoubtedly be a huge benefit for the market. Both large and small businesses will be able to rid themselves of the import tax burden that has been eating into corporate profits for the entire year. More importantly, this move will completely dispel the shadow of inflation, clearing the biggest concern for the Federal Reserve in formulating its monetary policy path.

**Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterates that current interest rates are too high and should consider further cuts in the future.** Milan stated that the October US private sector employment data was "surprising," but he also emphasized that the current interest rate level remains high and should consider further cuts in the future. He noted that while employment data has rebounded, the scale remains limited, wage growth continues to slow, and labor demand has clearly cooled, not as strong as during cyclical peaks. He believes these signs indicate that the current interest rate "may need to be lower than the existing level to be appropriate." Milan has publicly called for further rate cuts multiple times recently and voted against the Federal Reserve's only 25 basis point rate cut in September and October this year, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, arguing that the current policy is insufficient.

**US government shutdown impacts the aviation industry, FAA plans to cut 10% of flights at 40 major airports.** US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy stated that due to the record 36-day government shutdown, out of concerns for air traffic control safety, he will order a 10% reduction in flights at 40 major US airports. This radical plan forces airlines to significantly cut flights within 36 hours. As of the time of writing, most US airline stocks are down in pre-market trading.

## Individual Stock News

**Musk's compensation plan vote is imminent, Tesla (TSLA.US) enters a high-risk moment.** Tesla will hold its annual shareholder meeting on November 6, Eastern Time. At that time, shareholders will vote on a tough choice proposed by the board: either support a compensation plan for Musk of up to $1 trillion or face the risk of his potential departure—which could lead to a sharp drop in the company's stock price. Notably, Musk holds a potentially decisive tool in Thursday's vote—his own 15% stake. Additionally, about 40% of the shares are held by retail investors who have always been loyal to him, while the remaining 45% are held by institutional investors such as Vanguard Group, BlackRock, and State Street Bank. This shareholding ratio should be sufficient for the compensation plan to pass at the shareholder meeting.

**The "ARM architecture wave" sweeps data centers, Arm (ARM.US) Q2 operating profit surges 155%.** In the second fiscal quarter of 2026 ending in September, Arm's total revenue surged 34% to $1.14 billion, exceeding market expectations of $1.06 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.39, better than the market expectation of $0.33; operating profit soared 155% year-on-year to $163 million, with an operating profit margin of 14.4% (far higher than the 7.6% in the same period last year); Net profit surged 122% year-on-year to $238 million. The company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $1.175 billion and $1.275 billion, with a midpoint of $1.225 billion exceeding market expectations of $1.1 billion; it anticipates adjusted earnings per share of $0.41 for the third quarter, better than the market expectation of $0.35. As of the time of publication, Arm's stock rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**The AI upgrade wave drives demand for high-end smartphones, Qualcomm (QCOM.US) delivers better-than-expected results.** In the fourth quarter ending September 28, Qualcomm's sales were $11.27 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.79 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $3, better than the market expectation of $2.88. Meanwhile, Qualcomm expects the median sales and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter of this fiscal year to be $12.2 billion and $3.40, respectively, both higher than market expectations of $11.62 billion and $3.31. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon stated that the current performance and outlook are positive, mainly driven by consumers upgrading mid-range smartphones to high-end devices to run AI applications. The market is clearly differentiating between basic low-end models and high-profit high-end models, with the latter historically being a major source of Qualcomm's profits. As of the time of publication, Qualcomm's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**Snap (SNAP.US) Q3 results exceed expectations, monthly active users approach 1 billion, receives $400 million from Perplexity to build "AI dialogue as search."** For the quarter ending September 30, Snap's total revenue was approximately $1.51 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, slightly above analysts' average expectation of about $1.49 billion. Snapchat's daily active users reached 477 million in Q3, an 8% year-on-year increase; monthly active users were approximately 943 million. Additionally, Snap announced a partnership with AI search leader Perplexity AI Inc. worth up to $400 million to integrate its AI-driven intelligent search engine into Snapchat. As of the time of publication, Snap's stock rose over 20% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**AppLovin (APP.US) delivers a "high-scoring report card" in Q3: revenue surges 69%, strong cash flow, and spends $3.2 billion on buybacks.** According to the financial report, digital advertising technology company AppLovin's Q3 revenue reached $1.41 billion, an 8.9% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by $70 million; earnings per share were $2.45, while the market generally expected $2.39. Net profit was $835.5 million, also surpassing the previous expectation of $826.5 million. Looking ahead, AppLovin expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $1.57 billion and $1.6 billion, higher than the previous expectation of $1.55 billion. The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA margin between 82% and 83%. As of the time of publication, AppLovin's stock rose nearly 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**Robinhood (HOOD.US) Q3 net profit skyrockets 271% exceeding expectations, but cryptocurrency revenue "lags behind."** The financial report shows that Robinhood's total net revenue in the third quarter grew 100% year-on-year, reaching $1.274 billion; Net profit increased significantly by 271% year-on-year, reaching $556 million; diluted earnings per share surged 259% year-on-year to $0.61, exceeding analysts' average expectation of $0.53 per share. The company's trading revenue in the third quarter soared 129% year-on-year to $730 million. However, cryptocurrency revenue was $268 million, falling short of expectations.

**DoorDash (DASH.US) Q3 profits disappoint, massive spending plans raise growth concerns.** The financial report shows that total order value grew by 25% to $25 billion in the three months ending September 30, surpassing analysts' average estimate of $24.6 billion. This growth marks the largest increase since mid-2023, which DoorDash attributes to "strong growth" in monthly active users. Revenue increased by 27% year-on-year to $3.45 billion, also better than the market expectation of $3.36 billion. Earnings per share were $0.55, below the market expectation of $0.69. Total costs and expenses surged 23% year-on-year to $3.19 billion. Due to rising operating costs leading to profits falling short of expectations and investors' cautious attitude towards increased spending, DoorDash's stock fell nearly 10% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**Multiple acquisitions drive strategic layout, quantum computing company IonQ (IONQ.US) faces "increased revenue but greater losses" dilemma but significantly raises full-year guidance.** The financial report shows that IonQ's Q3 revenue reached $39.87 million, a year-on-year increase of 221.5%, exceeding expectations of $12.88 million; adjusted earnings per share showed a loss of $0.17, exceeding expectations by $0.03. The net loss for the third quarter was $1.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $48.9 million. Despite revenue exceeding expectations, the company's losses still surpassed expectations due to a series of acquisition activities. The company currently expects revenue in 2025 to be between $106 million and $110 million, higher than the previous expectation of $91.33 million. As of the time of writing, IonQ's stock rose over 6% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**American Superconductor (AMSC.US) Q2 revenue grows over 20% but still falls short of expectations, though it has been profitable for five consecutive quarters, Q3 guidance is mediocre.** The financial report shows that the company's revenue for the quarter was approximately $66 million, with a year-on-year increase of over 20%, which is 2.93% lower than the consensus estimate of $67.85 million. Non-GAAP net profit was $8.9 million, marking American Superconductor's fifth consecutive quarter of profitability, breaking a streak of losses from 2011 to 2024, and it is expected to be the first profitable year since 2010 in fiscal year 2025. Looking ahead to the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company expects revenue to be between $65 million and $70 million, with Non-GAAP net profit expected to exceed $6 million. As of the time of writing, American Superconductor's stock fell over 17% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

**Cybersecurity leader Fortinet (FTNT.US) Q3 core business revenue growth hits a ten-year low.** The company reported total revenue of approximately $1.72 billion for the third quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%; diluted earnings per share were $0.62, down from $0.70 in the same period last year The company's core service business segment revenue grew by 13% year-on-year to $1.17 billion, slightly below analysts' average expectations. This is also the slowest growth rate for Fortinet's service business revenue in at least a decade. As of the time of publication, Fortinet's stock fell over 9% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time the next day at 00:00, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech.

Beijing time the next day at 00:00, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will participate in an online discussion.

Beijing time the next day at 01:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at the New York Economic Club.

Beijing time the next day at 05:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will deliver a speech.

## Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: SanDisk (SNDK.US), IREN (IREN.US), MP Materials (MP.US), Century Aluminum (CENX.US)

Friday pre-market: Honda (HMC.US), Constellation Energy (CEG.US)

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- [Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DB.US.md)

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