---
title: "Morgan Stanley: The rebound in mainland China's CPI in October was mainly influenced by the \"Super Golden Week\" effect, and inflation is expected to remain relatively stable from November to December"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/265081648.md"
description: "Morgan Stanley's report pointed out that the mainland's CPI in October increased by 0.2% year-on-year, mainly influenced by the \"Super Golden Week,\" with a rebound in food and service prices. The core CPI increased by 1.2%, supported by rising gold prices and holiday effects. The PPI slightly rose to 0.1%, driven by the import prices of non-ferrous metals. It is expected that inflation will stabilize from November to December, with the low base effect fading and anti-involution policies providing support. Overall inflation data confirms that the fundamental momentum is stable but weak, with soft terminal demand limiting the upward space"
datetime: "2025-11-10T06:50:56.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/265081648.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/265081648.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/265081648.md)
---

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# Morgan Stanley: The rebound in mainland China's CPI in October was mainly influenced by the "Super Golden Week" effect, and inflation is expected to remain relatively stable from November to December

Morgan Stanley published a report stating that the mainland's October CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year (market expectation 0%, previous value -0.3%), driven by a rebound in food and service prices due to the "Super Golden Week." The core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year (1.0% in September), mainly supported by rising gold prices and a low base effect, along with holiday effects. The PPI slightly increased by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value 0%), mainly driven by rising import prices of key non-ferrous metals (especially copper). Other producer prices remained generally stable: commodity prices were supported by stricter production controls, while durable goods prices continued to be weak.

The bank expects that inflation data in the mainland will remain relatively stable from November to December this year, as the low base effect gradually fades, and the "anti-involution" policy will provide support for monthly momentum.

The rise in CPI was mainly influenced by holiday effects: apart from fruits and vegetables driving food prices to a seasonally adjusted annualized growth of 5.2%, the core CPI had a seasonally adjusted annualized growth of 1.7% (0.9% in September), with service prices also boosted by holiday effects. Gold prices further increased, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the core CPI's annual growth of 1.2% (0.3 percentage points in September). In contrast, prices of other core goods showed marginal slowdown, led by home appliances (seasonally adjusted annualized decline of 6%).

Morgan Stanley indicated that the mainland's October PPI showed slight improvement, driven partly by import prices and partly by domestic factors: non-ferrous metals and "daily necessities" in consumer goods were the main contributors. The strong rise in copper prices reflects supply constraints (due to the Indonesian copper mine incident) and robust global structural demand. Meanwhile, the rapid increase in daily necessities prices (monthly increase of 0.7%, a 15-year high) may reflect short-term demand brought by the "Double Eleven" promotions.

The bank stated that the mainland's October inflation data confirmed that the underlying momentum is stable but weak, with stricter upstream production discipline and the "anti-involution" policy providing support, but weak terminal demand limits the upside potential. The bank maintains the view that the year-on-year change in mainland inflation will remain relatively stable by the end of the year, as the low base effect gradually fades

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