---
title: "\"Forecast\" Securities expect Tencent's adjusted net profit in the third quarter to rise by 12%, focusing on the prospects of gaming, advertising business, and AI investment (Update)"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/265636377.md"
description: "Tencent expects its adjusted net profit for the third quarter to grow by 12%, benefiting from strong performance in its gaming and advertising businesses. According to forecasts from 12 brokerages, Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the third quarter is expected to be between RMB 65.2 billion and RMB 68.895 billion, with revenue expected to be between RMB 187.699 billion and RMB 190.7 billion. The market is focused on improvements in gaming gross margins, gross margins for non-payment fintech businesses, and e-commerce service fees, as well as investment and operational strategies in the field of artificial intelligence"
datetime: "2025-11-13T03:52:06.000Z"
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---

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# "Forecast" Securities expect Tencent's adjusted net profit in the third quarter to rise by 12%, focusing on the prospects of gaming, advertising business, and AI investment (Update)

Tencent (00700.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for this year today (13th), benefiting from the stable performance of evergreen games such as "Honor of Kings," "Game for Peace," and "Crossfire," as well as the strong performance of "Delta Force" (with daily active users exceeding 30 million in September, a 50% increase from July). The international gaming business is driven by factors such as game revenue growth from Supercell's games, and the upgrade of advertising driven by artificial intelligence and revenue growth. According to a comprehensive forecast from 12 brokerages, Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 65.2 billion and RMB 68.895 billion, compared to RMB 59.813 billion in the same period last year, an annual increase of 9% to 15.2%, with a median of RMB 67.029 billion, an annual increase of 12.1%.

Based on the forecasts from 6 brokerages, Tencent's net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 55.857 billion and RMB 58.891 billion, compared to RMB 53.23 billion in the same period last year, an annual increase of 4.9% to 10.6%, with a median of RMB 57.389 billion, an annual increase of 7.8%. According to a comprehensive forecast from 12 brokerages, Tencent's revenue for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 187.699 billion and RMB 190.7 billion, compared to RMB 167.193 billion in the same period last year, an annual increase of 12.3% to 14.1%, with a median of RMB 189.022 billion, an annual increase of 13.1%.

The market is focused on the growth prospects of Tencent's gaming and advertising businesses, including the gross margin performance of the gaming industry, as "Delta Force" may have a lower gross margin due to IP sharing and large-scale innovative marketing activities. Attention is also paid to the improvement of gross margins in non-payment financial technology businesses and e-commerce service fees. Investors are also focusing on Tencent Cloud's revenue growth, capital investment in artificial intelligence, operational strategies (especially the mixed Yuan model, the long-term AI potential and application scenarios of the WeChat ecosystem, chip procurement and application, and the expansion of data centers), and shareholder return guidance.

【Healthy Game Revenue Outlook AI Drives Advertising Growth】

Morgan Stanley predicts that Tencent's net profit for the third quarter will increase by 8% year-on-year to RMB 57.6 billion, with non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit increasing by 12% year-on-year to RMB 67.2 billion, and revenue increasing by 13% year-on-year to RMB 189.1 billion. Among these, value-added service revenue is expected to increase by 13% year-on-year to RMB 93.6 billion, with online game revenue expected to increase by 18% year-on-year to RMB 60.1 billion. Domestic and international game revenue is expected to increase by 13% and 30% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from a 16% year-on-year increase in deferred game revenue in the first half of the year. According to the bank, evergreen games such as "Game for Peace," "Honor of Kings," "Teamfight Tactics," and "Crossfire" continue to grow at double-digit rates. "Delta Force" set a record for revenue in September, and the annual revenue of the mobile game "Valorant" is trending towards the bank's expected RMB 4 billion to 5 billion. The bank predicts that Tencent's quarterly online advertising revenue is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year to RMB 35.8 billion, driven by the upgrade of artificial intelligence advertising Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year to RMB 58.212 billion, with financial technology and enterprise services revenue expected to rise by 6% and 22% year-on-year, driven by strong demand and strategic allocation of computing power to external clients, which will accelerate cloud revenue growth.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Tencent's net profit in the third quarter of this year will increase by 5.5% year-on-year to RMB 56.1 billion, with non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit expected to rise by 15% year-on-year to RMB 68.9 billion, and revenue expected to increase by 13% year-on-year to RMB 189 billion. Among them, value-added service revenue is expected to rise by 12% year-on-year to RMB 92.6 billion, with quarterly online game revenue expected to increase by 16%, and local and overseas games expected to rise by 13% and 23% year-on-year, respectively. The firm stated that Tencent's evergreen game portfolio is expanding, and the outlook for game revenue is healthy. The firm also predicts that the growth momentum of the advertising business will continue, benefiting from artificial intelligence driving advertising technology and the WeChat ecosystem, with advertising revenue expected to rise by 19% year-on-year. The payment revenue of the financial technology department is also expected to remain stable, and cloud revenue is expected to accelerate in the remaining part of this year, with the department's third-quarter revenue expected to rise by 11% year-on-year. The firm estimates Tencent's capital expenditure for this year to be RMB 100 billion, with future expenditures expected to be RMB 117 billion and RMB 129 billion in the next two years.

Goldman Sachs indicated that the market will focus on (1) Tencent's capital expenditure outlook, AI cloud business opportunities, and any incremental information on internal GPU capital expenditures; (2) strategic updates on AI initiatives; (3) progress in advertising technology upgrades. The firm stated that Tencent will have the strongest profit foundation among China's internet giants, with "games + advertising" business having upside potential and possibly expanding its focus on external AI cloud, although some investment phases still raise market concerns about profit margins.

First Shanghai stated that Tencent's AI is reshaping the growth curve and moving towards an intelligent business closed loop, with the company's marketing services business continuing to grow rapidly, and AI becoming the core driving force. Tencent has introduced and scaled AI applications in advertising creation, delivery, recommendation, and performance analysis. In the third quarter, generative recommendations gradually landed on the algorithm side, and intelligent delivery achieved automation and intelligence through ADQ3.0 and AIM+ matrix, significantly improving click-through rates and conversion rates. The advertising loading rate on video accounts is expected to further break through, and the integration of WeChat mini-stores and video account e-commerce forms an "AI closed loop of content + social + transaction," with the proportion of high-margin advertising increasing, and the advertising business structure continuously optimizing, with AI becoming a key engine for Tencent's advertising growth. Overall, the company's revenue structure continues to optimize, AI capabilities accelerate systematic landing, and the marketing and gaming sectors become core drivers, with cloud and financial technology providing robust support. With the deepening application of AI in business processes, management and sales expense ratios are expected to continue to decline, and profit quality and operational efficiency will further improve. Looking ahead, the e-commerce process of WeChat mini-stores, the commercialization pace of AI, and the upgrade of the advertising client structure remain core focus areas, with the company's medium to long-term growth logic clear, and AI gradually transforming into a dual driving force for performance and valuation -----------------------------------------------------------------------

According to a comprehensive forecast from 12 brokerages, Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 65.2 billion and RMB 68.895 billion, compared to RMB 59.813 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% to 15.2%, with a median of RMB 67.029 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%.

Brokerage│Forecast for this year's third quarter non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit (RMB)│Year-on-year change

Goldman Sachs│RMB 68.895 billion│+15.2%

Citi│RMB 67.542 billion│+12.9%

Haitong International│RMB 67.507 billion│+12.9%

Morgan Stanley│RMB 67.246 billion│+12.4%

Nomura│RMB 67.230 billion│+12.4%

UBS│RMB 67.052 billion│+12.1%

CICC│RMB 67.006 billion│+12%

Guotai Junan Securities│RMB 66.7 billion│+11.5%

China Merchants Securities│RMB 66.5 billion│+11.2%

Citi│RMB 66.425 billion│+11.1%

Jefferies│RMB 66 billion│+10.3%

Huatai Securities│RMB 65.2 billion│+9%

Based on Tencent's non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit of RMB 59.813 billion for the third quarter of 2024.

\-----------------------------------------------------------------------

A comprehensive forecast from 6 brokerages indicates that Tencent's net profit for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 55.857 billion and RMB 58.891 billion, compared to RMB 53.23 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% to 10.6%, with a median of RMB 57.389 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

Brokerage│Forecast for this year's third quarter net profit (RMB)│Year-on-year change

Haitong International│RMB 58.891 billion│+10.6%

CICC│RMB 57.888 billion│+8.8%

Morgan Stanley│RMB 57.646 billion│+8.3%

Citi│RMB 57.132 billion│+7.3%

Goldman Sachs│RMB 56.141 billion│+5.5%

Citi│RMB 55.857 billion│+4.9%

Based on Tencent's net profit of RMB 53.23 billion for the third quarter of 2024.

\-----------------------------------------------------------------------

According to a comprehensive forecast from 12 brokerages, Tencent's revenue for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 187.699 billion and RMB 190.7 billion, compared to RMB 167.193 billion in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3% to 14.1%, with a median of RMB 189.022 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% Brokerage │ Q3 Revenue Forecast (RMB) │ Year-on-Year Change

Huatai Securities │ 190.7 billion │ +14.1%

Haitong International │ 190.073 billion │ +13.7%

Citi │ 189.962 billion │ +13.6%

Morgan Stanley │ 189.683 billion │ +13.5%

Nomura │ 189.044 billion │ +13.1%

Jefferies │ 189 billion │ +13%

Goldman Sachs │ 188.979 billion │ +13%

Guotai Junan Securities │ 188.8 billion │ +12.9%

CICC │ 188.472 billion │ +12.7%

China Merchants Securities │ 188.4 billion │ +12.7%

UBS │ 187.699 billion │ +12.3%

Based on Tencent's Q3 2024 revenue of 167.193 billion RMB

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