The Japanese yen depreciates against the US dollar, breaking 155! The exchange rate against the euro hits a historic low! Is government intervention imminent?

Investment Insights - The future trend of the Japanese yen exchange rate depends on Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan and the economic data released after the U.S. government reopens.

On November 13, the trend of yen depreciation continued, with the euro/yen (EUR/JPY) rising to 179.52, setting a new record since the euro's inception in 1999. Meanwhile, the dollar/yen (USD/JPY) broke through 155, reaching a new nine-month high.

In terms of information, Japan's new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida urged the Bank of Japan to act cautiously, suggesting a slowdown in interest rate hikes. Additionally, on the evening of the 12th local time, U.S. President Trump signed a temporary funding bill, ending the longest federal government shutdown in history, which lasted for 43 days.

【Source: TradingView; 2025 USD/JPY trend】

【Source: TradingView; 2025 EUR/JPY trend】

Is Japanese government intervention imminent?

The rapid depreciation of the yen has sparked speculation in the market about whether Japanese authorities will intervene.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a verbal warning on November 12, stating that there are "one-sided rapid fluctuations" in the foreign exchange market.

Historically, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has intervened in the exchange rate during significant yen depreciation in 2022 and 2024, with intervention levels around 158 and 161.7 in 2024.

However, most institutions believe that the likelihood of immediate intervention by Japanese authorities is low.

Bank of America pointed out that the yen exchange rate may need to test the 158 level before triggering a meaningful policy response. Goldman Sachs stated that the possibility of intervention would significantly increase when the dollar/yen exchange rate reaches the 161-162 level What will be the future trend of the Japanese yen exchange rate?

Analysis indicates that the future trend of the USD/JPY exchange rate will mainly depend on the economic data released by the U.S. government after it reopens, as well as the economic stimulus plan announced by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in late November.

JP Morgan and Mizuho Securities estimate that by the end of December 2025, the target price for USD/JPY will be 156