---
title: "Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: The risk of a decline in the unemployment rate is increasing, but the Federal Reserve should act \"steadily.\""
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/266236921.md"
description: "Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the downside risk to the unemployment rate has exceeded the upside risk to inflation, and the Federal Reserve should take a gradual approach to interest rate cuts. He emphasized that current policy is close to neutral levels and that policy adjustments need to be made steadily. Jefferson pointed out that the job market is gradually cooling, lacking official data support, but the number of unemployment insurance claims is stabilizing. There is increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts"
datetime: "2025-11-17T16:30:53.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/266236921.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/266236921.md)
---

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# Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson: The risk of a decline in the unemployment rate is increasing, but the Federal Reserve should act "steadily."

Philip Jefferson, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated on Monday that the downside risks to the current unemployment rate have exceeded the upside risks to inflation, but the Federal Reserve should take a "gradual" approach to interest rate cuts.

"The current policy stance remains somewhat restrictive, but is closer to a neutral level that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy," Jefferson said in a speech in Kansas City. "The changing balance of risks indicates that it is necessary for us to gradually advance policy adjustments as we approach neutral interest rates."

Jefferson emphasized that it is unclear how much government data officials will obtain before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on December 9-10. The U.S. Department of Labor has announced that it will release the September employment report on Thursday, but it is uncertain whether any other data will be released before the Federal Reserve officials meet (if so, the specifics are also unclear).

He noted that he has consistently adopted a "meeting-by-meeting assessment" strategy and added that this approach is "particularly prudent" under the current circumstances.

Although Jefferson stated that inflation may have stagnated around 3% due to tariffs, he still believes there is reason to view this phenomenon as a one-time price increase rather than a persistent inflation issue. However, he added that he is closely monitoring the relevant situation.

Jefferson believes that the job market is gradually cooling. He acknowledged the current lack of official government data support but pointed out that the number of unemployment insurance claims received by states has remained relatively stable in recent weeks. He also mentioned that anecdotal evidence regarding the job market is mixed.

As Jefferson made these remarks, divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to further cut interest rates have become increasingly apparent. Other voting members, including Jeff Schmid, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, and Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, have expressed concerns about inflation and tend to favor maintaining stable interest rates.

The market currently expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month to be only 42%, down from as high as 94% about a month ago

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