---
title: "UBS expects that the downturn in China's real estate market is not over, predicting that housing prices will need to decline for at least another two years"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/267124712.md"
description: "John Lam, the head of real estate research at UBS China, has adjusted his forecast for the Chinese property market, believing that the downturn in the market has not yet ended, and expects housing prices to decline for at least another two years. Unless there are significant stimulus measures, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities are expected to drop another 10% next year and another 5% in 2027. With rental yields lower than mortgage rates, more people are choosing to rent, and the decline in housing prices may stop after rents stabilize"
datetime: "2025-11-24T06:53:23.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/267124712.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/267124712.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/267124712.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/267124712.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/267124712.md)


# UBS expects that the downturn in China's real estate market is not over, predicting that housing prices will need to decline for at least another two years

UBS China Real Estate Research Head John Lam has retracted his previous optimistic forecast for the Chinese property market, stating that the prolonged downturn in the market, which has lasted for four years, is far from over.

He predicts that the Chinese property market will decline for at least another two years before a genuine recovery can be seen. One reason for this is that potential buyers are increasingly inclined to rent due to the likelihood that homeowners from the past decade may be losing money, fundamentally altering public expectations regarding property prices.

He further indicated that unless China introduces significant stimulus measures, it is expected that the prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities will drop another 10% next year and decline by another 5% by 2027. As the rental yield in first-tier cities is significantly lower than mortgage rates, more and more people will choose to rent rather than buy, believing that the decline in property prices will only stop once rental prices stabilize

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