The American "Black Friday" shopping season is here! Customer traffic may hit a new high, but spending is becoming more cautious

American consumers are showing a contradictory trend this Black Friday shopping season: while the number of shoppers is expected to reach a historic high, average spending is declining, reflecting concerns over tariff policies and rising living costs.

According to the National Retail Federation, this Thanksgiving shopping season is expected to attract 187 million consumers, a historic high, accounting for more than half of the U.S. population. However, consumers' willingness to spend has noticeably decreased, with a Deloitte survey indicating that average planned spending is down 4% year-on-year to $622.

Shoppers planning to tighten their budgets cite higher living costs and financial constraints as the main reasons. A holiday shopping survey by consulting firm Accenture noted that the expected overall spending increase "mainly reflects rising prices rather than an increase in consumer confidence."

Target's Chief Business Officer Rick Gomez stated, consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest point in three years, with concerns about employment, affordability, and tariff issues. The National Retail Federation survey shows that 85% of consumers expect tariffs to drive up the prices of gifts and holiday goods.

This shift in consumer behavior will have a significant impact on the annual profits of retailers that rely on holiday sales, while also reflecting a broader trend of slowing consumer spending in the U.S. economy.

Retailers Extend Promotion Periods to Address Challenges

In response to cautious consumer sentiment, retailers are starting promotions earlier and extending them. Walmart launched three rounds of promotions this month, with the third round ending on Monday. Target's Black Friday event spans the entire week, offering half-price discounts on items such as Beats headphones, Instant Pot cookware, and Barbie dolls.

Kohl's new CEO Michael Bender told analysts that disposable income remains under pressure, "this is particularly evident among our middle- and lower-income consumers as well as younger customers." He expects this year's holiday promotions to be more intense.

Adobe Analytics data shows that online sales have increased by 7.5% year-on-year to nearly $80 billion so far this month.

Tariff Concerns Affect Consumer Confidence

Retailers have reported raising prices to offset the increased import costs due to tariffs imposed by Trump on U.S. trading partners this year. The National Retail Federation survey shows that 85% of consumers expect tariffs to raise the prices of gifts and holiday goods.

The Conference Board reported this week that U.S. consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since Trump initiated the global trade war in April, casting a shadow over future sales prospects.

The National Retail Federation predicts that the year-on-year growth rate for holiday sales in November and December will slightly slow to 3.7%-4.2%, down from 4.3% in 2024, but total sales are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time.

Market research firm Numerator's survey shows that gift cards will be the most popular gift this Christmas, followed by clothing and toys or games.

Deloitte's retail research leader Lupine Skelly stated that the preference for gift cards may reflect consumers' concerns about affordability. "When people start experiencing higher prices and discussing them extensively, they tend to opt for gift cards," she said, "'I'll buy you a $50 gift card, and you can go buy that $57 sweater.' This effectively shifts the pressure onto the recipient "