CITIC Construction Investment's research report indicates that copper prices are expected to reach new highs. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) recently held discussions again, and member companies reached the following consensus and will strictly adhere to it: reduce copper concentrate production capacity utilization by more than 10% in 2026 to improve the supply and demand fundamentals of copper concentrate; maintain the Benchmark system, strengthen direct cooperation with mines, and firmly resist unreasonable index pricing models from traders, etc. The mismatch between smelting capacity and copper mines is the main reason for the deviation of TC (treatment charge) from reasonable levels. The purpose of reducing smelting capacity is to allow TC to rise to reasonable levels, which will not affect the transition of copper mines to refined copper, but concentrated production cuts will impact short-term supply. Additionally, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has reached 86%, which may help copper prices replicate the breakout rally on March 13, 2024
