---
title: "\"Bad data\" is \"good news\"? The market's probability of a rate cut in January rises to 30%"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/268499740.md"
description: "Overnight, the U.S. macro data performed poorly, with weak industrial capacity utilization, mixed service sector ISM data, and disappointing employment figures (including the largest loss of manufacturing jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and significant job losses in small businesses according to ADP). This has boosted the market's dovish sentiment, making a rate cut in December almost certain, while the possibility of a rate cut in January has risen to over 30%"
datetime: "2025-12-03T23:51:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268499740.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/268499740.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268499740.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/268499740.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/268499740.md)


# "Bad data" is "good news"? The market's probability of a rate cut in January rises to 30%

Overnight U.S. macro data performed poorly, with weak industrial capacity utilization, mixed services ISM data, and disappointing employment figures (including the largest loss of manufacturing jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and significant job losses in small businesses according to ADP).

This boosted the market's dovish sentiment, making a rate cut in December a "done deal," while the likelihood of a rate cut in January rose to over 30%.

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