Family members selling shares sparks heated discussion, how to view Hon Hai's stock price in the future? Analysts: AI long positions and high base period become key factors

Global electronics manufacturing giant Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2317) has recently become a hot topic in the market due to the share transfer declaration by members of its founder's family. Two investment companies represented by Guo Taiming's eldest daughter, Guo Xiaoling, filed with the stock exchange on the 1st of this month to sell a total of 5,180 shares of Hon Hai through regular trading from December 4 to January 3 next year. Based on the closing price of NT$222 on that day, the total market value is approximately NT$1.15 billion. What impact will the Guo family's sale of 5,180 shares of Hon Hai have on future stock price trends? Some voices in the market are concerned whether this move indicates that the management is pessimistic about the future. However, several analysts point out that this transfer is purely a personal financial planning matter for the family and has no direct correlation with the company's operational prospects. Analysts believe that compared to Hon Hai's daily trading volume often exceeding 100,000 shares, the released 5,180 shares represent a very low proportion and do not qualify as "dumping." Furthermore, Guo Taiming himself still holds approximately 1.74 million shares of Hon Hai, and this disposal is relatively minor compared to his total holdings, far from affecting the company's equity structure or market value. Analysts further explain that there are many reasons for family members of entrepreneurs to adjust their holdings, which may include asset allocation, capital management, trust planning, or personal investments, and it should not be overly interpreted as a bearish signal. This is more of an emotional topic amplified by the market rather than an indicator of a fundamental shift. Hon Hai's operational fundamentals remain strong, with AI server momentum extending to 2027 Setting aside the chip-related issues, Hon Hai's operational fundamentals remain robust. The company's revenue for the third quarter reached NT$2.05 trillion, marking the second-highest in history, with earnings per share (EPS) of NT$4.15 also hitting a new high. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, benefiting from the traditional peak season and strong demand for AI servers, revenue is expected to challenge historical highs of NT$2.25 to NT$2.35 trillion, with full-year revenue estimated to exceed NT$7.8 trillion. The key growth momentum comes from the artificial intelligence sector. Hon Hai's order visibility for AI servers extends to the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027, indicating strong customer demand. Foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs have recently listed Hon Hai as a priority buy, optimistic about its benefits from the growing demand for AI server components and the launch of new Apple products, expecting significant year-on-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter. Hon Hai's stock price faces short-term revenue high base challenges, but long-term growth trend remains unchanged Analysts point out that the current key for Hon Hai's stock price lies in the short-term revenue rhythm. Due to October's revenue reaching NT$895.7 billion, a new monthly high, the market expects that revenue in November and December may decline from this peak, leading to a month-on-month decrease, which makes the stock price lack immediate upward momentum in the short term. From a valuation perspective, the market estimates Hon Hai's EPS for 2025 to be around NT$19, with the price-to-earnings ratio relatively undervalued compared to its growth prospects. Therefore, overall, Hon Hai presents a pattern of "strong long-term, weak short-term." The company's fundamentals are sound, with clear growth momentum in new businesses such as AI and electric vehicles, and the long-term investment value remains solid On the other hand, Hon Hai Group continues to make strategic investments to strengthen its competitiveness. Its important subsidiary, Hon Hai Precision Industry (Zhengzhou) Co., Ltd., recently announced that it will acquire a 75% stake in Henan Hongchuang Technology Co., Ltd. for approximately 1.5 billion RMB. This transaction has been approved by the board of directors and is part of a long-term investment plan, demonstrating the group's ongoing layout and deepening in the manufacturing network in mainland China. Overall, the changes in shareholding among the Guo family members do not have a substantial impact on the future trend of Hon Hai's stock price. The core of Hon Hai's investment should still return to its strong operational fundamentals, its leading position in the AI server field, and a clear long-term growth trajectory. Investors should focus less on single chip news and pay more attention to the long-term benefits of its technological upgrades and market expansion. Today, Hon Hai's stock price rose for the second consecutive day, reaching a high of 230 yuan during the session and closing at 227 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.25%