Recently, the crisis in China's real estate sector has deepened, with developer Vanke facing a significant debt maturity peak of approximately RMB 11.4 billion (about SGD 2.1 billion). The market is calling for the Chinese government to intervene and support, and to introduce measures to boost real estate transactions before the end of the year.
Analysts believe that even though there is some pressure in the Greater China region and overseas markets, the three major banks in Singapore have strict risk control, and their loan exposure to Greater China remains manageable.
Previously released data showed that the second-hand housing prices in 100 cities in China continued to decline in November, falling 0.94% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to October, and down 7.95% compared to the same period last year. Under the influence of high listing volumes and weak expectations, the downward pressure on second-hand housing prices has increased.
China's leading real estate company Vanke revealed last week that it has applied to extend the repayment period of a domestic bond originally due on December 15, 2025, amounting to RMB 2 billion (about USD 280 million). In a challenging economic environment, investor concerns about potential defaults have intensified, and the feasibility of this refinancing plan is in question.
Regarding the impact of China's real estate industry on Singapore banks, Bloomberg Industry Research analyst Guo Shuning stated in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: &#34;The asset quality of Singapore banks is expected to remain robust. Although there is some pressure in the Greater China region and overseas markets, Singapore banks have strict risk control, primarily lending to borrowers with strong supporters, high credit quality, and relatively low loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. The default rate in commercial real estate is expected to remain low through 2026.&#34;
She believes that the loan exposure of the three banks to the Chinese real estate industry remains manageable. DBS Bank's loan exposure to Chinese private enterprises is about RMB 2 billion, accounting for less than 1% of total loans as of the third quarter of 2025. UOB's loan exposure in the Greater China region (mainly Hong Kong) for commercial office buildings is USD 2 billion, also accounting for less than 1% of total loans. However, UOB has a relatively weaker position in commercial real estate underwriting, showing a slight relative disadvantage.
Phillip Securities research investment manager Tan Jiancheng stated in an interview that over the past two years, Singapore banks have maintained strict management of their exposure to Chinese real estate, with loans directly provided to developers currently accounting for only a low single-digit percentage of group loans, most of which are to state-owned enterprises or state-related companies, secured by collateral rather than unsecured credit.
He noted that the asset quality of the three banks has remained stable so far, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for exposure to China remaining unchanged, and general provisions have been set aside since 2022.
<h3>DBS: Continuous Reduction of Exposure in Recent Years</h3>
A spokesperson for DBS Bank stated in response to inquiries: &#34;We have remained cautious in the Chinese real estate sector and have continuously reduced our exposure over the past few years.&#34;
As of September 2025, DBS's exposure in Chinese real estate was RMB 11 billion, down from RMB 14 billion last year, due to corporate repayments, and lower than the initially disclosed RMB 16 billion in the second quarter of 2022
DBS's exposure is mainly concentrated in state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises. &#34;Given the characteristics of the asset portfolio, we feel reassured about our risk exposure but will not be complacent. We will continue to closely monitor the exposure situation, and the large general reserves and strong capital ratios provide sufficient buffers.&#34;
As for the future direction of China's real estate industry, Bloomberg Asia fixed income analyst Fan Zhiquan said that overall, there are no significant signs of recovery in the fundamentals of China's real estate industry until 2026.
Tan Jiancheng believes that the real estate industry remains weak, with prices, sales, and financing conditions continuing to deteriorate in the fourth quarter. Vanke's move to seek bond extensions shows that even strong developers are facing pressure, increasing the urgency for policy support ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference in December. Although some easing measures may be introduced, demand remains weak and inventory is high, making a recovery in the industry more likely to be a slow and lengthy process rather than a rapid rebound

000002

02202

China's real estate crisis is intensifying, and Vanke is facing significant debt maturities. The market is calling for government intervention and support. Analysts believe that Singapore banks have strict risk control, and their loan exposure to Greater China is manageable. Data shows that in November, China's second-hand housing prices fell by 0.94% month-on-month and 7.95% year-on-year. Vanke has applied for an extension of the repayment period for its RMB 2 billion bond. The asset quality of Singapore banks is expected to remain robust

China's real estate crisis deepens, Singapore banks' exposure remains controllable | Lianhe Zaobao