---
title: "Top economist Mark Zandi issues new recession warning"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/269256128.md"
description: "Renowned economist Mark Zandi has issued a new recession warning, expressing concerns about a weakening labor market and the risk of economic recession. The unemployment rate has risen, with the unemployment rate for young workers reaching 9.2%. Zandi pointed out that the slowdown in the labor market is related to Trump's tariff policies. The latest data shows a slight increase in the layoff rate, while the hiring rate remains flat. Nevertheless, the small business confidence index has rebounded, and some employers plan to hire next year"
datetime: "2025-12-10T16:10:50.000Z"
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269256128.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269256128.md)
---

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# Top economist Mark Zandi issues new recession warning

Renowned economist Mark Zandi has recently begun to worry about a weakening labor market and the potential risk of economic recession.

In an exclusive interview with Fortune magazine released on Wednesday, Zandi stated that many Americans have long been on the "financial edge."

He noted that if the pace of layoffs accelerates, it "will undoubtedly trigger an employment recession."

Latest data shows that the unemployment rate has been steadily rising slightly since the beginning of the year, increasing from 4.0% in January to 4.4% in September, reaching a four-year high. This figure indicates that more Americans are seeking jobs but failing to secure employment. The unemployment rate for young workers aged 20 to 24 is even as high as 9.2%, more than double the overall unemployment rate.

Zandi pointed out that the slowdown in the labor market began in April of this year after President Donald Trump introduced a global double-digit tariff policy. He said, "If you look at the point in time when job growth really stalled, you'll find it was shortly after 'Liberation Day.'"

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released on Tuesday showed that the layoff rate in October slightly increased from 1.1% in September to 1.2%; meanwhile, the hiring rate remained at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous month.

This phenomenon aligns with the characteristics of a "low hiring, low layoff" labor market as defined by economists and analysts.

However, there is also a positive signal for the U.S. economy: another survey released by the National Federation of Independent Business shows that the small business confidence index slightly rebounded in November, with more employers indicating plans to hire employees in early next year

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