---
title: "RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and hit $5,100 in 2027"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/269298075.md"
description: "RBC Capital Markets forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and hit $5,100 in 2027, driven by geopolitics, AI impact, monetary policy, and high government debt. RBC upgrades Franco Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals to Outperform, while downgrading Agnico Eagle to Sector Perform."
datetime: "2025-12-10T23:23:05.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269298075.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269298075.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269298075.md)
---

# RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and hit $5,100 in 2027

The precious metals analysts at RBC Capital Markets are out with a massive call, forecasting more upside for gold over the next two years.

Despite gold already ripping 60% higher year-to-date in 2025, RBC believes the rally has continued legs. They argue that central bank buying and investment demand have fundamentally reinforced gold's value as a non-sovereign asset.

**The new price deck:**

-   2026 Average: $4,600/oz
-   2026 Year-End: $4,800/oz
-   2027 Average: $5,100/oz

The 4 Key Drivers RBC outlines four themes underpinning this bullish view:

1.  Geopolitics: "Hostile global policy" is dividing economies and reshaping growth outlooks.

1.  AI Impact: Technological change is adding to uncertainties regarding inflation and growth.

1.  Monetary Policy: Softer policy is on the horizon, even with inflation sticking above target.

1.  The Debt Trap: High government indebtedness and budget deficits remain an "enduring headwind."

Perhaps the most interesting note for equity traders is RBC's take on miner behavior. Historically, producers act pro-cyclically—spending recklessly on M&A and capex when prices rise, which destroys returns.

RBC says this time is different.

-   Producers are focused on deleveraging and dividends.
-   Sector net debt to EBITDA is sitting at zero (that's right 0.0x)
-   2026 margins are forecast at an impressive $1,470/oz (that's 7x higher than 2023).
-   Reserves are being calculated conservatively at <$2,000/oz (less than 50% of current spot prices).

**Stock Moves: Royalty plays get the nod** With the new commodity deck, analyst Josh Wolfson is shuffling the ratings. He views royalty companies as trading at attractive valuations and better insulated from cost risks than the producers.

**Upgrades:**

-   Franco Nevada (FNV): Upgraded to Outperform (Target raised to $250 from $225).
    -   Why? Valuation is supportive. The Cobre Panama mine restart discussions in early 2026 are a key catalyst, though uncertainty remains. Even without it, the base case is stable.
-   Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): Upgraded to Outperform (Target raised to $130 from $115).
    -   Why? Growth is about to kick in. RBC sees ramp-ups culminating in high growth from 2027-2031. They forecast WPM to deliver \>45% growth by 2030.

**Downgrades:**

-   Agnico Eagle (AEM): Downgraded to Sector Perform (Target $205).
    -   Why? "Growth also comes at a price." While the pipeline is high-quality, RBC warns that consensus estimates aren't factoring in the heavy capex (RBC @ $2.9b vs street $2.1b) needed to deliver it.

### Related Stocks

- [WPM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WPM.US.md)
- [AEM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEM.US.md)

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