---
title: "The potential path from \"AI burning money\" to \"Federal Reserve interest rate cuts\""
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/269618222.md"
description: "SINOLINK SECURITIES believes that the Federal Reserve may focus more on the unemployment rate in the future. Once the unemployment rate exceeds 4.5%, there will be multiple interest rate cuts next year. This will stimulate global manufacturing investment demand, and although it may trigger secondary inflation risks, before inflation rises, AI investment and manufacturing investment will lead to a recovery in real economic demand"
datetime: "2025-12-14T08:05:36.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269618222.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269618222.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269618222.md)
---

# The potential path from "AI burning money" to "Federal Reserve interest rate cuts"

SINOLINK SECURITIES:

In the future, the Federal Reserve's consideration of the unemployment rate should outweigh concerns about inflation. The current unemployment rate is already close to the Federal Reserve's target of 4.5%. Once it breaks through, there will likely be multiple interest rate cuts next year.

We believe the potential path from the unemployment rate to monetary policy and then to the real economy may be: **AI aggressive investment continues → unemployment rate breaks the 4.5% threshold → monetary policy provides a safety net with multiple interest rate cuts → stimulates global manufacturing investment demand → unemployment rate decreases but inflation rises → triggers secondary inflation risk.** However, in any case, before inflation rises, AI investment + manufacturing investment benefiting from interest rate cuts will restore demand in the real economy.

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