--- title: "How Much Did AI Spending Contribute To First-Half GDP? What About Q3?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/269791305.md" description: "AI spending significantly contributed to GDP growth in the first half of 2025, with AI-related expenditures adding about 1.64 percentage points to Q1 and 0.97 percentage points to Q2. Without AI, Q1 GDP would have contracted by 2.2% instead of 0.6%, and Q2 would have expanded by 2.8% instead of 3.8%. The BEA has delayed Q3 GDP stats due to a government shutdown, with updates expected by December 23." datetime: "2025-12-16T01:10:50.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269791305.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269791305.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269791305.md) --- # How Much Did AI Spending Contribute To First-Half GDP? What About Q3? Photo by Steve Johnson on Unsplash I created some new charts on AI spending. Please take a look. The BEA has still not reported any GDP stats for the third quarter of 2025. Due to the government shutdown, the initial GDP for the third quarter was delayed until December 23. Meanwhile, I did create some new charts to show the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending on first-half growth. **Change in Real Nonresidential Spending in Billions Q1** - Q1 Software: $34.3 Billion - Q1 IP R&D: -$3.2 Billion - QI IP Equipment: $68.6 Billion - Q1 AI (Software, R&D, IP Equipment): $99.7 Billion - Q1 Nonresidential Total: $81.0 Billion - Q1 Nonresidential Other Than AI: -18.7 Billion **Change in Real Nonresidential Spending in Billions Q2** - Q1 Software: $49.4 Billion - Q1 IP R&D: $13.5 Billion - QI IP Equipment: $16.8 Billion - Q1 AI (Software, R&D, IP Equipment): $79.7 Billion - Q1 Nonresidential Total: $63.9 Billion - Q1 Nonresidential Other Than AI: -15.8 Billion **Real Private Fixed Investment** Residential is a drag on GDP and so is nonresidential other than AI. **Manufacturing and Power** Power is from the Census Bureau, not the BEA. Neither Manufacturing nor power construction played a significant role in GDP in 2025. **Percentage Point Contributions to GDP** **Nonresidential Contribution to GDP** - 2025 Q1: 1.36 Percentage Points - 2025 Q2: 0.78 Percentage Points But the AI contribution is greater because the non-AI nonresidential contribution was negative in both quarters. I factored out the negative contribution using the following calculation. **Nonresidential AI Contribution to GDP** - 2025 Q1: 1.36 \* 97.9 / 81.0 = 1.64 Percentage Points - 2025 Q2: 0.78 \* 79.7 / 63.9 = 0.97 Percentage Points Growth in real AI-related expenditures contributed about 1.64 percentage points to Q1 and about 0.97 percentage points to Q2. **Real GDP, Real Final Sales, Real GDI** Q1: Without the AI-related contribution, Real GDP would have contracted by about 2.2 percent instead of the reported 0.6 percent contraction. Q2: Without the AI-related contribution, Real GDP would have expanded by about 2.8 percent instead of the reported 3.8 percent gain. The Fed likes to watch Real Final Domestic Sales. Without the AI-related boost, I have Real Final Domestic Sales Q1 at -0.2 percent and Q2 at 1.4 percent. I have no estimates for Q3, but with new charts in place, I expect to have Q3 AI numbers on December 23. **Related Posts** December 11, 2025: **The US Trade Deficit Improves in September, Or Does It?** > The BEA reports the trade deficit shrunk in September. December 12, 2025: **How Much Would the US Have to Refund If the Court Strikes Trump’s Tariffs?** > The total through October is about $88 billion and rising. What are the odds? December 14, 2025: **How Much Additional Power Will Data Centers Need by 2035?** > Here’s a trio of estimates from Bloomberg, Bloom Energy, and S&P. * * * _More By This Author:_ How Many Interest Rate Cuts Will The Fed Do In 2026? How Much Additional Power Will Data Centers Need By 2035? How Much Would The US Have To Refund If The Court Strikes Trump’s Tariffs? ### Related Stocks - [AI.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AI.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Cava wants AI to help power its Mediterranean bowl empire](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287029539.md) - [Trillion-dollar Samsung faces a battle over who gets the AI profits](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287013238.md) - [Germany Q1 final GDP +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287313744.md) - [ROI-Bond yields may finally be baking in an AI world: Mike Dolan](https://longbridge.com/en/news/287012732.md) - [Microsoft Stock Is an AI Bargain That Investors Are Missing](https://longbridge.com/en/news/286680636.md)