---
title: "Kalshi Study Reveals Prediction Markets Outperform Wall Street in Inflation Forecasts"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/270505192.md"
description: "Kalshi's study reveals prediction markets outperform Wall Street in inflation forecasts, with a 40% lower average error over 25 months. The 'wisdom of the crowd' effect allows for more accurate and responsive predictions, especially during economic volatility. Market-based predictions can be valuable tools for institutional decision-makers, with accuracy exceeding consensus expectations by up to 67% when actual data deviates significantly."
datetime: "2025-12-22T14:13:48.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270505192.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270505192.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270505192.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/270505192.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/270505192.md)


# Kalshi Study Reveals Prediction Markets Outperform Wall Street in Inflation Forecasts

According to ChainCatcher, a study by prediction market platform Kalshi, reported by CoinDesk, has found that prediction markets have outperformed Wall Street consensus expectations in forecasting inflation. Over a 25-month period, the average error of prediction markets was 40% lower than that of consensus forecasts. The study highlights the advantage of prediction markets in aggregating diverse information from numerous traders motivated by economic incentives, creating a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect. This allows for more responsive adjustments to changing environments. The findings suggest that market-based predictions can serve as valuable supplementary tools for institutional decision-makers, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. Kalshi's comparison of its platform's inflation forecasts with Wall Street consensus expectations revealed that market-based traders demonstrated higher accuracy than traditional economists and analysts over the 25-month observation period. This advantage was especially pronounced during times of economic volatility. Specifically, the study found that from February 2023 to mid-2025, prediction markets' estimates of year-over-year changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had an average error 40% lower than consensus forecasts. When actual data significantly deviated from expectations, the advantage of prediction markets became more evident, with accuracy exceeding consensus expectations by up to 67%.

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