In its latest research outlook, Coinbase Institutional points out that in 2026, the core of the crypto market will no longer be driven by narratives, but rather by the ability of key market structures to sustain expansion under more stringent conditions. The report, authored by David Duong, Global Head of Research at Coinbase, and researcher Colin Basco, argues that traditional cyclical models centered on retail speculation, token issuance, and single-protocol catalysis are gradually becoming ineffective. The report identifies perpetual contracts as a key pillar of price discovery, noting that derivatives trading volume already dominates most major exchanges. While the derivatives market will undergo deleveraging adjustments by the end of 2025, Coinbase views this as a structural reset rather than a decline in demand, believing that stricter margin requirements and risk controls enhance the market's ability to absorb shocks. Furthermore, Coinbase believes that prediction markets are shifting from experimental products to more sustainable financial infrastructure, with increased trading volume and liquidity attracting more non-crypto native participants. Stablecoins and payments are seen as the sectors with the most practical use, with their applications in settlement, cross-border transfers, and liquidity management continuing to grow, and gradually merging with automated trading and AI applications. Coinbase stated that 2026 will be a crucial year to test the sustainability of these core markets under intense regulatory and risk constraints. (CoinDesk)
