--- title: "2025 Year-End: Precious Metals Soar, Dollar Plummets 10%! Is 2026 Going to Be Even Crazier?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/271198266.md" description: "In 2025, global stock markets rose by 21%, gold surged nearly 70%, and the US dollar fell by nearly 10%. Trump's aggressive trade policies and geopolitical factors drove market volatility. European defense manufacturers' stock prices increased by 55%, and European bank stocks performed the best. The South Korean stock market soared by 70%, and Venezuelan bond yields approached 100%. US interest rate cuts and debt concerns affected the bond market, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007" datetime: "2025-12-31T09:37:47.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271198266.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271198266.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271198266.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271198266.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271198266.md) # 2025 Year-End: Precious Metals Soar, Dollar Plummets 10%! Is 2026 Going to Be Even Crazier? **Most investors know that with Trump regaining control of the world's largest economy, this year is bound to be different, but few anticipated that the process would be so wild or that the outcome would look like this.** Global stock markets recovered from the plunge triggered by the tariffs on April "Liberation Day" and rose 21% in 2025, marking the sixth year in the past seven to achieve double-digit growth. But looking at other areas, surprises followed one after another. **As the ultimate safe haven in the storm, gold soared nearly 70%, achieving its best annual performance since the 1979 oil crisis, while the dollar fell nearly 10%, oil dropped nearly 17%, yet junk bonds in the debt market surged.** Since AI darling Nvidia became the world's first company with a market value of $5 trillion in October, the American tech giants known as the "Seven Giants" seem to have lost some luster, while Bitcoin suddenly lost a third of its value. DoubleLine fund manager Bill Campbell described 2025 as a "year of transformation and surprises," with all the major moves intertwined with the same shocking topics—trade wars, geopolitics, and debt. “If you had told me in advance that Trump would adopt very aggressive trade policies and implement them in the current order, I would never have guessed that valuations would be as tight or high as they are today,” Campbell said. **The 55% surge in European weapons manufacturers' stock prices was also driven by Trump, following signals that he would reduce military protection for Europe, forcing the region and other NATO members to rearm.** This also propelled European bank stocks to their best annual performance since 1997, while the South Korean stock market surged 70%, and the yield on defaulted Venezuelan bonds approached 100%. Silver and platinum soared by an astonishing 165% and 145%, respectively. **The three rate cuts in the U.S., Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, and broader debt concerns have all impacted the bond market.** Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" spending plan caused the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds to soar above 5.1% in May, reaching a new high since 2007. Although it has since fallen to 4.8%, the difference, referred to by bankers as "term premium," between it and short-term rates has widened again, causing renewed unease. Japan's 30-year Treasury yield has also returned to historical highs. The contrast here is that global bond market volatility is at a four-year low, while local currency emerging market debt has achieved its best year since 2009. AI is also part of the debt portfolio as companies borrow money to invest. Goldman Sachs estimates that large AI "super-scale computing centers" will spend nearly $400 billion this year and nearly $530 billion next year. ## Shining Assets The decline of the dollar has led to a nearly 14% rise in the euro in 2025, a 14.5% increase in the Swiss franc, while the yen remained basically flat for the year after suffering a blow in December Trump's renewed engagement with Russian President Putin has propelled the ruble to soar by 40%, despite still being under strict sanctions, and this increase is second only to the Ghanaian cedi, which surged by 34%. The Polish zloty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint have strengthened by 15% to 20%, while the Mexican peso and Brazilian real have emerged from the shadow of the trade war, achieving double-digit gains. "We believe this is not just a short-term phenomenon," said Jonny Goulden, head of emerging markets fixed income strategy research at JP Morgan. "We think that **the 14-year bear market cycle for emerging market currencies has reversed here**." Argentina is another highlight. In September, when President Milei faced a crushing defeat in regional elections, the market was hit hard, but weeks later, when Trump promised $20 billion in aid to help Milei win the national midterm elections, the Argentine market went into a frenzy. ## A New Year, New Fears The start of next year will not be calm either. **Trump has been rallying for the midterm elections in November and is expected to soon nominate a new Federal Reserve chairman, which could be crucial for the independence of the central bank.** Israel will hold elections by the end of October, which will bring the fragile Gaza ceasefire into focus; ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains fraught with difficulties, while Orban will face Hungary's toughest election yet in April, and Colombia and Brazil will also begin critical elections in May and October. **Then there are all the unknowns surrounding artificial intelligence.** Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, stated that in terms of valuation, **the market is in an "extraordinary" position entering 2026, and leaders like Trump are "looking for excuses" to distribute money to voters through stimulus measures or tax cuts.** "There is a persistent risk that we are challenging the limits of what loose monetary policy can achieve," King said. "You are starting to see cracks at the margins, whether in terms of the growth of term premiums in the bond market, or in the sudden sell-off of Bitcoin, as well as the continued rebound of gold." ### Related Stocks - [SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [FL2CSOPGOLD (07299.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07299.HK.md) ## Related News & Research - [Gold Hunter shifts from quiet buildup to fully funded drilling push at Newfoundland gold district](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281261616.md) - [PRECIOUS-Gold falls as Trump gives no clarity on ending Iran war](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281453345.md) - [The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning. Most Investors Aren’t Watching.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281209385.md) - [Trump: I think we'll make a deal with them pretty soon…](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280929294.md) - [Trump Comments in Focus as US Equity Futures Gain Pre-Bell](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281026910.md)