--- title: "The 'Trump doctrine' demands the U.S. get a -2-" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/271548332.md" description: "The Trump doctrine emphasizes U.S. leverage in international relations, particularly in post-conflict reconstruction, favoring American firms like Fluor and Citigroup. While it has achieved notable successes in a short time, questions remain about its longevity and whether agreements will endure beyond Trump's presidency. Critics argue that the doctrine lacks institutional support compared to past administrations. The future of U.S. alliances and interventions, particularly in regions like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, remains uncertain. The doctrine's effectiveness as an investment thesis will be evaluated over time, with implications for global economic dynamics." datetime: "2026-01-05T17:36:06.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/271548332.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/271548332.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/271548332.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # The 'Trump doctrine' demands the U.S. get a -2- Construction and engineering firms follow the oil companies. Fluor (FLR), Bechtel and KBR (KBR) rebuilt Iraq. These companies have experience operating in post-conflict environments where American interests require American contractors. The Trump administration will favor those it favors. Banks with Latin America exposure are positioned to finance the reconstruction. Citigroup (C) has deep roots in the region. JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) emerging-markets desk will be busy. When American companies spend billions in Venezuela, American banks will intermediate the capital flows. How to judge the Trump doctrine Every agreement Trump has reached rests on his credibility, his relationships, his willingness to walk away. What happens when he's gone? By traditional measures of statecraft, the Trump doctrine has achieved more in 11 months than most presidencies achieve in eight years. Iran's nuclear program is crippled. China has made concessions on rare earths, soybeans and fentanyl. Europe is rearming. A dictator who ran a narco-state for a decade is in U.S. custody. Critics who warned Trump would burn down the world are now reduced to arguing that the fire marshal is using improper procedures. But the doctrine is an investment thesis, and investment theses require time horizons. The question it cannot answer: Do deals outlast dealmakers? Every agreement Trump has reached rests on his credibility, his relationships, his willingness to walk away. What happens when he's gone? Does Saudi Arabia remain aligned with America, or renegotiate with the next president? Does Germany sustain defense spending, or revert when the pressure lifts? Does Venezuela stabilize, or descend into the chaos that has followed every American intervention that ousted a strongman without a plan for what came next? Ronald Reagan's presidential achievements endured because they were institutionalized - embedded in defense budgets, alliance structures and ideological commitments that successors shared. The Cold War consensus outlasted any single president because it was a consensus. The Trump doctrine is not a consensus. It is one man's conviction, almost four decades in the making - imposed on a world that did not share it until he forced them to. The international order that America built after 1945 was not charity. It was infrastructure. America built the casino and set the house rules. This was not generosity. It was the best business model in the history of great powers. The Trump doctrine extracts even more value from this infrastructure by threatening to abandon it. But infrastructure that is neglected eventually fails. The Trump doctrine bets that U.S. leverage, properly monetized, generates returns that subsidizing the world never did. Whether tactical victories accumulate into strategic success or merely postpone strategic reckoning, we cannot yet know. Ask again in four years. But this much is certain. In September 1987, a real-estate developer from Queens paid nearly $100,000 to tell America that the world was laughing at us. Nobody's laughing now. Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds positions in SLB, XOM, CRCL and bitcoin. Agree? Disagree? Share your comments with Charlie Garcia at charlie@R360Global.com. Your letter may be published anonymously in the weekly "Dear Charlie" reader mailbag. By emailing your comments to Charlie Garcia, you agree to have them published on MarketWatch anonymously, or with your first name if you give permission. You understand and agree that Dow Jones & Co., the publisher of MarketWatch, may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties. More from Charlie Garcia: China is using silver as an economic weapon. What that means for investors and prices. America once had enough silver to meet its needs. But that's been outsourced, too. Quantum computing works - now investors will see if the stocks do too China is quietly destroying the dollar - and that'll cost you. Fight back with these money moves. -Charlie Garcia This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. 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