---
title: "Morgan Stanley expects Trip.com to be fined up to 6.2 billion yuan for monopoly, which is an individual measure rather than a tightening of overall industry regulation"
description: "JP Morgan expects Trip.com to face fines of RMB 600 million to 6.2 billion due to alleged monopoly, and the stock price will be negatively impacted. The investigation is based on complaints and is an "
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/272640075.md"
published_at: "2026-01-15T04:01:25.000Z"
---

# Morgan Stanley expects Trip.com to be fined up to 6.2 billion yuan for monopoly, which is an individual measure rather than a tightening of overall industry regulation

> JP Morgan expects Trip.com to face fines of RMB 600 million to 6.2 billion due to alleged monopoly, and the stock price will be negatively impacted. The investigation is based on complaints and is an enforcement action against individual companies, rather than a tightening of overall industry regulation. In the next 4 to 6 months, Trip.com's stock price may fluctuate as the market digests regulatory uncertainties. Despite facing pressure to adjust its monetization mechanism, JP Morgan believes that Trip.com's competitive position is limited in impact, maintaining a target price of HKD 700 for Hong Kong stocks and USD 90 for U.S. stocks, both with an "Overweight" rating

JP Morgan believes that the investigation of Trip.com-S (09961.HK) by the State Administration for Market Regulation for suspected monopoly is driven by complaints or evidence, and is an enforcement measure targeting individual companies rather than a tightening of overall industry regulation. The bank expects that Trip.com's stock price will have a negative reaction in the coming days, as the market digests potential cash fines and the regulatory uncertainty that may last for several months. Additionally, Trip.com's stock price is expected to fluctuate over the next 4 to 6 months due to the continuous release of related news during this period.

In terms of penalties, referring to the provisions of the Anti-Monopoly Law, the bank estimates that Trip.com will be fined between 600 million to 6.2 billion RMB. At the same time, the company's existing monetization mechanisms in the domestic market may need to be adjusted, which will have a greater impact on the fundamentals, potentially including a decrease in effective commission rates and an increase in supplier bargaining power, as well as a slowdown in the growth of high-margin value-added services such as advertising and display positions under tightened "voluntary" and transparency requirements.

However, the bank believes that the impact on Trip.com's competitive position is limited, as remedial measures in past cases generally tend to regulate behavior rather than structurally redistribute market share. The bank currently sets a target price of HKD 700 for Trip.com's Hong Kong stock and a target price of USD 90 for Trip.com's U.S. stock (TCOM.US), both with an "Overweight" rating

### Related Stocks

- [TCOM.US - Trip.com](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TCOM.US.md)
- [09961.HK - TRIP.COM-S](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09961.HK.md)

## Related News & Research

| Title | Description | URL |
|-------|-------------|-----|
| China’s hotels allege predatory pricing, forced exclusivity in Trip.com antitrust probe | China's hotels are facing declining room rates due to Trip.com's aggressive discounting strategies, which are seen as pr | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273207200.md) |
| Global Influencers Unite in the Spirit of the Chinese New Year, Co-hosted by Trip.com Group and Tripadvisor China | Trip.com Group and Tripadvisor China co-host the 2026 Global Influencers' China Travel Campaign, celebrating Chinese New | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275699173.md) |
| China Opens Antitrust Probe Into Trip.com | Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ: TCOM) is under investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272567743.md) |
| China Opens Antitrust Probe Into Trip.Com | China has initiated an antitrust investigation into Trip.Com Group for alleged market dominance abuse, following similar | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272813120.md) |
| 02:04 ET
			
			
				Trip.com Group Connects Content, Commerce, and Creators Through New "Trip Community" Ecosystem | Trip.com Group has launched 'Trip Community', a new travel-content ecosystem integrating content and creator innovations | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/270116342.md) |

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.