---
title: "Goldman Sachs expects China's real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in the fourth quarter, with exports remaining resilient but domestic demand weakening"
description: "Goldman Sachs expects China's real GDP growth in the fourth quarter to slow to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the third quarter. Although export performance remains strong, domestic demand has significantly "
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/272642922.md"
published_at: "2026-01-15T04:26:00.000Z"
---

# Goldman Sachs expects China's real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in the fourth quarter, with exports remaining resilient but domestic demand weakening

> Goldman Sachs expects China's real GDP growth in the fourth quarter to slow to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the third quarter. Although export performance remains strong, domestic demand has significantly weakened. Industrial production year-on-year growth in December is expected to rise from 4.8% in November to 5.4%, but the year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment will remain at 8.9%. Retail sales growth may slow to 0.6%, mainly affected by weak automobile sales and the home appliance market

Goldman Sachs expects China's industrial production year-on-year growth to rise from 4.8% in November to 5.4% in December, as the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and export data exceeded expectations, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing momentum. However, the growth in automobile production has further slowed, and the year-on-year decline in steel production has widened.

On a monthly basis, the bank expects the year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment in December to remain at 8.9%, compared to 10.7% in November, reflecting statistical corrections from previously overstated data and some structural headwinds, such as the "anti-involution" policy and the long-term slump in the real estate market. The bank anticipates a cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from the beginning of the year to December of 3.3%.

Additionally, retail sales growth may further slow to a year-on-year 0.6%, reflecting a decline in automobile sales growth, as well as weak growth in home appliance sales due to a shortage of funds and diminishing effects from the home appliance replacement program.

The bank maintains its forecast that real GDP in the fourth quarter will slow from 4.8% in the third quarter to 4.5%, although exports remain resilient, domestic demand has shown signs of weakening

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
