CATL's counterattack thwarted? Ronbay Technology's over 120 billion yuan large order under inquiry, where is the "big game" of lithium iron phosphate heading?

At the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the lithium battery industry, represented by lithium iron phosphate, is undergoing a fierce "great game" between upstream and downstream.

On one hand, lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have been collectively losing money for nearly three years and have a strong desire to raise prices; on the other hand, battery manufacturers in downstream sectors such as energy storage are seeing prices continue to decline.

On January 13, Ronbay Technology's procurement cooperation agreement with CATL, exceeding 120 billion yuan, sparked heated discussions in the market, which could become the largest order in the history of the lithium iron phosphate industry. However, this matter was soon inquired by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Shanghai Stock Exchange required Ronbay Technology to conduct a comprehensive self-examination and fully disclose all important details regarding the aforementioned agreement.

This move may signify a temporary setback for CATL's plan to "control" lithium iron phosphate, and how the subsequent game between it and upstream lithium iron phosphate manufacturers unfolds is worth ongoing attention.

The "Great Game" of Lithium Iron Phosphate

At the end of 2025, lithium iron phosphate cathode manufacturers collectively halted production for maintenance, causing ripples in the lithium battery industry. Major lithium iron phosphate cathode manufacturers such as Hunan YN Energy, Wanrun New Energy, Dofnano, Anda Technology, and Longpan Technology issued announcements stating that they would halt part of their production capacity for maintenance.

This is seen by the industry as lithium iron phosphate manufacturers "huddling together for warmth," collectively halting production to pressure downstream battery manufacturers and thereby increase processing fees.

This action seems to have been successful. At the beginning of 2026, Xinluo Information reported that regarding processing fees, apart from a few major clients still in negotiations, almost all other clients had accepted the request from some suppliers to raise processing fees by 1,000 yuan/ton.

However, CATL's counterattack soon arrived.

On the evening of January 13, the leading ternary cathode material company Ronbay Technology announced that it had signed a "Lithium Iron Phosphate Cathode Material Procurement Cooperation Agreement" with CATL. According to the agreement, from the first quarter of 2026 to 2031, Ronbay Technology is expected to supply a total of 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to CATL's domestic region, with a total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan.

On the same day, Fulian Precision also stated that CATL plans to invest 3.175 billion yuan to subscribe to Fulian Precision's additional shares, becoming a shareholder with over 5% stake, and plans to purchase no less than 3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products in the next three years.

Based on this calculation, CATL will purchase more than 1 million tons from Fulian Precision on average each year. According to Xinluo Information data, from January to September 2025, the global cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate reached 2.6616 million tons, a year-on-year increase of over 60%.

This shows how massive the scale of CATL's two procurement agreements is.

A corporate executive familiar with the cathode material industry, who goes by the pseudonym Meng Ming, told the Daily Economic News reporter: "Its (CATL's) main purpose is to control the market, so it needs to find some external (forces) to break the existing balance, hoping to have more 'fish' come in (to become suppliers), thereby maintaining its control ability. If it is grasped by existing traditional suppliers, how will it control the market?"

Performance Capability Under Scrutiny

However, on the evening of the announcement by Ronbay Technology, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's inquiry letter followed closely, directly targeting Ronbay Technology's performance capability.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange requested Ronbay Technology to clarify whether the company has the corresponding performance capability in conjunction with its planned and under-construction production capacity, capacity acquisition plans, financial reserves, and strategic planning, and to fully disclose important contents in the agreement regarding capacity construction, annual delivery volume, price adjustment mechanisms, etc.

The doubts from the Shanghai Stock Exchange are not unfounded. The announcement shows that Ronbay Technology's current lithium iron phosphate production capacity is far from the promised supply volume. Public information indicates that Ronbay Technology will only incorporate Guizhou Xinren New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. through acquisition in December 2025, thereby obtaining an annual production line of 60,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate.

According to the agreement, Ronbay Technology needs to supply 3.05 million tons of products within six years, with an average annual supply volume exceeding 500,000 tons.

How can the existing capacity of 60,000 tons support such a massive order?

For Ronbay Technology, whose main business is ternary materials, this is a significant order. The company only officially announced its entry into the lithium iron phosphate field in the first half of 2025, and within less than a year of entering the market, it secured a large long-term order from an industry giant, demonstrating rapid market expansion.

Data shows that Ronbay Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023, 2024, and 2025 was 22.657 billion yuan, 15.088 billion yuan, and 8.986 billion yuan, respectively. This six-year, 100 billion yuan order will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the company's future operating performance.

Ronbay Technology stated that its lithium iron phosphate products possess excellent performance and revolutionary technology. They believe that compared to traditional lithium iron phosphate processes, their production process has been shortened from 15 steps to 6 steps, with significant advantages in investment cost and energy consumption control, reducing investment costs by about 40% and energy consumption by about 30%. Additionally, this process is easy to automate and digitize, providing significant labor efficiency advantages.

Is Ronbay Technology's "One-Step Method" Feasible?

According to information obtained by reporters, Ronbay Technology's "RB One-Step Method" is a breakthrough developed based on "first principles," distinguishing it from the current mainstream lithium iron phosphate processes, greatly simplifying the process flow. It is reported that the raw materials and equipment for this method are common and readily available, with simple reaction control points, better automation potential, and no three wastes emissions, making it easier to expand production overseas.

However, Meng Ming stated, "This (Ronbay Technology's technology) is limited to the pilot stage, only at the hundred-kilogram level. To achieve thousands of tons or tens of thousands of tons, there is still a long way to go, and this technology originates from Shanghai Liangfu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as 'Shanghai Liangfu')."

According to Qinzhou's announcement, Guangxi Free Trade Zone Liangfu New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Liangfu New Energy") was established in 2021, mainly engaged in the research, production, and sales of high-performance lithium iron phosphate materials. In 2023, the company successfully completed the equipment joint debugging and operation of its innovative "green one-step method" demonstration line with an annual production capacity of 2,000 tons of high-performance lithium iron phosphate, with all major performance parameters meeting expectations At the same time, Liangfu New Energy plans to initiate a production expansion plan of 20,000 tons.

The sole shareholder of Liangfu New Energy is Shanghai Liangfu. According to Tianyancha, Ronbay Technology holds nearly 30% of the shares in Shanghai Liangfu.

Currently, the phosphoric acid iron method dominates the production of lithium iron phosphate, where the first step is to produce the precursor iron phosphate, which is then further processed into lithium iron phosphate. In addition to the phosphoric acid iron method, there are also the oxalic acid iron method from Fulin Precision and the one-step method.

In addition to Ronbay Technology, another player in the one-step method is GCL-Poly Energy. It is reported that the core of GCL-Poly Energy's iron red method lies in a one-step production process based on the physical mixing of powdered raw materials. This process directly physically mixes solid raw materials such as iron and lithium sources in precise proportions, and then completes the one-step synthesis reaction through specialized equipment, ultimately obtaining lithium iron phosphate cathode products.

An industry insider familiar with GCL-Poly Energy told reporters: "The investment for the oxalic acid iron method in the tens of thousands of tons is estimated to require 120 million to 140 million yuan, while the phosphoric acid iron method is estimated to require 100 million to 120 million yuan. The iron red method only requires 70 million to 80 million yuan, which is about 20% lower in investment cost compared to the phosphoric acid iron method."

Regarding the advantages of the one-step method, Mo Ke, founder of the True Lithium Research Institute, told reporters: "The one-time sintering of cathode materials can reduce energy consumption to some extent."

However, he also stated: "(Traditional) phosphoric acid iron is a wet method, which does not have high requirements for raw material quality and can reduce costs to some extent."

The implication is that both the one-step method and the traditional phosphoric acid iron method have their own advantages.

It is worth mentioning that GCL-Poly Energy's one-step method has already achieved mass production, but Ronbay Technology's one-step method has faced skepticism from the industry.

Another industry insider familiar with cathode materials, Ma Lin (pseudonym), told reporters: "This is a technology that has been eliminated by old players. Deyang Nano has mentioned this route, which is actually very difficult to achieve, mainly due to impurity purification, and there is limited room for improving additives. It is not difficult to convert Fe (iron) from 3 to 2, but iron red, hydrothermal method, and oxalic acid iron all require structural reconstruction. FP (iron phosphate) and LFP (lithium iron phosphate) have similar structures, and making LFP from large-scale FP does not require structural reconstruction. As far as I know, Ronbay uses a pyrolysis method, but it cannot remove impurities and will have agglomeration phenomena."

Regarding whether Ronbay Technology's one-step method is in the pilot test stage, whether the agreement between Ronbay Technology and CATL is strongly binding, and issues such as the specific price and order quantity discussed annually in the agreement, reporters consulted Ronbay Technology staff and called the office of the board secretary of Ronbay Technology, but had not received a reply by the time of publication.

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