--- title: "Bitcoin: Why BTC’s road to $100K may rely on leverage, not demand" description: "Bitcoin's recent price momentum is primarily driven by leverage rather than demand, highlighted by a significant short squeeze that forced traders to cover bearish positions. While this has pushed Bit" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/272745506.md" published_at: "2026-01-15T21:02:08.000Z" --- # Bitcoin: Why BTC’s road to $100K may rely on leverage, not demand > Bitcoin's recent price momentum is primarily driven by leverage rather than demand, highlighted by a significant short squeeze that forced traders to cover bearish positions. While this has pushed Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark, the sustainability of this rally depends on spot demand replacing leverage. OG Bitcoin holders are reducing their selling, indicating a potential accumulation phase, but whales are hedging, suggesting caution. The current market structure is fragile, with volatility risks high unless spot buyers emerge to support the price. Leverage is quietly reasserting itself as the main driver of Bitcoin’s \[BTC\] momentum. The recent breakout triggered an aggressive short squeeze, forcing traders to unwind bearish positions at scale. According to Glassnode, this was the largest short-liquidation event across the top 500 cryptocurrencies since the 10th of October 2025. On the chart, liquidation spikes align tightly with Bitcoin’s push to local highs. Source: Glassnode Traders wiped out millions in short exposure within a short time window, and forced buybacks chased the price higher, reinforcing upside pressure. This behavior has been building since late 2025, but the intensity accelerated as Bitcoin held elevated levels instead of retracing. If current liquidations persist, Bitcoin could extend toward the $100,000-$105,000 zone on momentum alone. However, if funding cools and open interest resets, the price may consolidate. Past squeezes show sustainability depends on spot demand replacing leverage. ## **OG supply pullback signals…** OG Bitcoin Holders are no longer distributing at the pace seen earlier in this cycle. STXO data from coins dormant for over five years shows a clear slowdown in long-term holder spending. Data from CryptoQuant confirms that OGs were highly active into 2024, using institutional demand and government buying as ideal exit liquidity. However, that behavior has shifted. Earlier in the cycle, OG spending peaked near 3,800 BTC, then cooled to 3,200 BTC, followed by 2,200 BTC. Source: X In the short term, lighter OG selling reduces overhead supply and supports price stability. On the contrary, in the long term, this behavior signals conviction. Historically, OG restraint aligns with accumulation phases rather than late-cycle distribution. ## **Whales hedge as retail commits: Who breaks first?** The chart highlights a clear divergence. Whales first unwind their long exposure and then rotate into shorts, suggesting a deliberate shift. Meanwhile, price remains elevated even as momentum fades. At the same time, leverage is quietly rebuilding. Taken together, these factors tilt risk to the downside. Whales react early because they see crowded positioning and late-cycle behavior. Moreover, OG Bitcoin holders are no longer distributing aggressively. That isolates organic selling pressure and leaves leverage as the main driver. Source: X Retail traders often move in the opposite direction. They chase upside momentum, reacting to price rather than structure. As volatility expands, they tend to add long positions. Meanwhile, on‑chain data from Alphractal showed whales closing longs and flipping short as Bitcoin neared $69,000. Retail traders did the opposite, piling into leveraged longs. Shortly after, Bitcoin corrected nearly 20%, dropping from $69,000 to $56,000 before stabilizing. This setup points to a potential shakeout or cooling phase. If leverage unwinds, the price will likely retrace before any sustainable continuation can occur. All in all, Bitcoin’s structure is clear as leverage, not spot demand, is driving momentum. Short liquidations lifted the price, while OG selling slowed and whales turned defensive. This tightens supply but raises fragility. Therefore, upside remains vulnerable. Sustainable gains require spot demand to replace leverage. Until then, volatility risk stays elevated, and any further extension remains exposed to a corrective reset. * * * ## Final Thoughts - *Leverage now drives Bitcoin’s momentum, with short liquidations lifting price while spot demand remains secondary, increasing the risk of volatility-driven pullbacks.* - *Smart money is turning cautious, as whales hedge and OG holders slow selling, signaling tighter supply but a fragile rally unless spot buyers step in.* ### Related Stocks - [GBTC.US - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GBTC.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 【比特日報】大多頭渣打突然投降，目標價下調 5 萬！比特幣一度下探 6.5 萬，「週期拐點」信號出現？ | 渣打銀行下調比特幣目標價至 10 萬美元，警告未來幾個月可能出現進一步下跌。比特幣一度跌至 65,079 美元，現回升至 66,400 美元。市場分析師指出，若比特幣跌破 58,000 美元，可能進一步下探至 4 萬美元。整體加密市場市值蒸 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275974635.md) | | 比特幣收復 7 萬美元！木頭姐聲稱接近潛在底部，這次會不一樣嗎？ | 比特幣價格反彈至 7 萬美元上方，木頭姐表示市場可能接近底部，但分析師對此持不同看法。比特幣近期因 Bithumb 交易所的烏龍事件和多重因素影響而波動，儘管有資金湧入，但市場底部判斷仍然困難。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275441802.md) | | 比特幣暴跌逾 50% 後「底部」或已臨近？FED 降息次數成關鍵！ | 比特幣自歷史高位下跌逾 50%，市場分歧加劇，近期再遭猛烈拋售，價格一度跌破 6.6 萬美元。全球爆倉人數達 148859 人，總金額 4.67 億美元。儘管市場擔憂量子電腦可能破解比特幣安全，但 CoinShares 報告稱並非迫在眉睫的 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275853783.md) | | 證監會數字資產推新措施 容許經紀提供虛擬資產融資服務 | 證監會推出三項措施以促進香港數字資產交易，包括允許虛擬資產經紀提供比特幣和以太幣融資服務，持牌平臺向專業投資者發售永續槓桿合約，以及允許聯屬莊家在持牌平臺上營運。措施旨在提高市場流動性，確保投資者保障，並設定審慎的風險管理框架。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275587283.md) | | 由於 ETF 需求持續低迷，比特幣熊市可能會拖延數月 | 比特幣目前的交易價格為 69,781 美元，比歷史最高點下跌超過 44%。通過現貨 ETF 對比特幣的機構需求仍然處於負面狀態，過去 10 天的累計淨流出顯示損失達 18,000 個比特幣。歷史模式表明，像當前的 128 天回調這樣的長期下 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275981554.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.