--- title: "JP Morgan expects that the stock prices of domestic banks will rise this year, but they are relatively lagging in the favorable liquidity environment. They upgraded the rating of Minsheng Bank to \"Overweight.\"" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/273025447.md" description: "JP Morgan expects Chinese bank stocks to rise, but may underperform the market by 2026. It is anticipated that maturing time deposits will provide liquidity support to the capital markets. Although the revenue and profits of domestic banks will improve moderately, bank stocks may lag behind in the liquidity-driven rally. Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of MINSHENG BANK from \"Neutral\" to \"Overweight,\" while the rating of ABC was downgraded to \"Neutral.\"" datetime: "2026-01-20T03:16:37.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273025447.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273025447.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273025447.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273025447.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273025447.md) # JP Morgan expects that the stock prices of domestic banks will rise this year, but they are relatively lagging in the favorable liquidity environment. They upgraded the rating of Minsheng Bank to "Overweight." JP Morgan released a report predicting that Chinese bank stocks will achieve absolute price increases, but believes they may underperform the market in 2026. JP Morgan expects approximately RMB 110 trillion in time deposits to mature in 2026, including about RMB 7 trillion in excess household savings. This could provide liquidity support to the capital markets and boost the market. Driven by the recovery of net interest income and wealth management fees, JP Morgan anticipates that the revenue and profit growth of domestic banks will improve moderately in 2026. However, in a liquidity-driven rally, bank stocks may lag behind. Among high-dividend stocks, JP Morgan prefers Bank of Communications (601328.SH), Bank of China (03988.HK), and China Construction Bank (00939.HK); while Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH), Industrial Bank (601166.SH), and China Merchants Bank (03968.HK)(600036.SH) have better growth potential. JP Morgan expects growth-oriented stocks to outperform high-dividend stocks. The bank upgraded the H-share rating of China Minsheng Bank (01988.HK) from "Neutral" to "Overweight," but downgraded the H-share rating of Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) from "Overweight" to "Neutral." JP Morgan's investment ratings and target prices for domestic bank stocks are as follows: Stock | Investment Rating | Target Price \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bank of China (601988.SH) | Overweight | RMB 6.3 → RMB 6.6 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CITIC Bank (00998.HK) | Overweight | HKD 8.85 → HKD 9.05 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- China Construction Bank (601939.SH) | Overweight | RMB 11.3 → RMB 11.35 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) | Overweight | RMB 54 → RMB 52 China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) | Overweight | HKD 60 → HKD 61 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH) | Overweight | RMB 8.9 → RMB 9 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK) | Overweight | HKD 7.3 → HKD 7.35 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Industrial Bank (601166.SH) | Neutral → Overweight | RMB 24 → RMB 24.5 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) | Neutral | RMB 7.5 → RMB 7.3 Agricultural Bank of China (01288.HK) | Overweight → Neutral | HKD 6.6 → HKD 6.1 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bank of Communications (601328.HK) | Overweight | RMB 8.65 → RMB 8.4 Bank of Communications (03328.HK) | Overweight | HKD 8 → HKD 7.85 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- China Everbright Bank (601818.HK) | Neutral | RMB 3.6 → RMB 3.25 China Everbright Bank (06818.HK) | Neutral | HKD 3.25 → HKD 3.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minsheng Bank (600016.SH) | Upgrade | RMB 5.1 → RMB 4.65 Minsheng Bank (01988.HK) | Neutral → Upgrade | HKD 4.8 → HKD 4.45 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Huaxia Bank (600015.SH) | Neutral | RMB 8.2 → RMB 7.5 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ping An Bank (000001.SZ) | Neutral | RMB 11.3 → RMB 11 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Postal Savings Bank (01658.HK) | Neutral | RMB 5.7 → RMB 5.5 \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) | Upgrade | RMB 15.7 → RMB 14.6 ### Related Stocks - [ChinaAMC CSI Banks ETF (515020.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/515020.CN.md) - [ABC (601288.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601288.CN.md) - [MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01988.HK.md) - [CMBC (600016.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600016.CN.md) - [WP CSI Banks ETF (512820.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512820.CN.md) - [Fullgoal CSI 800 Banks ETF (159887.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159887.CN.md) - [Hwabao WP CSI Banks ETF (512800.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512800.CN.md) - [Huaan CSI Banks ETF (516210.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/516210.CN.md) - [ABC (01288.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01288.HK.md) - [China Southern CSI Banks ETF (512700.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/512700.CN.md) - [China Merchants CSI BANK AH Price ETF (517900.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/517900.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Bank of Baroda Posts Strong Provisional FY26 Growth in Loans and Deposits](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281580807.md) - [Bank Of China (SEHK:3988) Net Interest Margin Squeeze Tests Bullish Valuation Narratives](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281197854.md) - [Canadian banks have exposure of C$880 million to non-prime lender goeasy](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281433579.md) - [Bank of China (OTCMKTS:BACHY) Issues Earnings Results](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281191632.md) - [Bank of China Publishes 2025 Pillar 3 Risk and Capital Disclosure](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280992471.md)