--- title: "When the Treasury and the Federal Reserve decide to let the economy \"overheat,\" is gold aiming for $6,000?" description: "Precious metals expert Craig Hemke believes that the U.S. is turning to \"overheating\" the economy through stimulus to dilute debt, which may lead to artificially suppressed interest rates and trigger " type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/273383299.md" published_at: "2026-01-22T13:54:19.000Z" --- # When the Treasury and the Federal Reserve decide to let the economy "overheat," is gold aiming for $6,000? > Precious metals expert Craig Hemke believes that the U.S. is turning to "overheating" the economy through stimulus to dilute debt, which may lead to artificially suppressed interest rates and trigger negative real interest rates. This macro change, combined with the ongoing "de-dollarization" gold-buying spree by global central banks, is expected to jointly constitute the strongest catalyst for the rise of precious metals, pushing gold prices to a historic high of $6,000 per ounce by 2026 As U.S. policymakers shift towards more aggressive economic stimulus strategies, the market is facing a significant macroeconomic transformation that could push gold prices to a historic high of $6,000 per ounce. Financial analyst and precious metals expert Craig Hemke predicts that under the leadership of the Trump administration, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will jointly implement a strategy to "overheat the economy" by 2026, aiming to resolve debt issues through rapid growth. This move is expected to become the strongest catalyst for the precious metals market. In an interview with Greg Hunter, Hemke pointed out that U.S. authorities have abandoned earlier plans for fiscal tightening and balanced budgets, opting instead to dilute debt pressure through rapid GDP growth. Treasury Secretary Becerra recently stated that **the goal is to reduce interest payments as a percentage of GDP from the current 6% to 3% through economic growth.** To achieve this, the market expects Trump to appoint a compliant new Federal Reserve Chair to replace Powell in May, who will closely coordinate with the Treasury to stimulate short-term growth through interest rate cuts. **The core risk of this policy shift lies in the resurgence of inflation and soaring long-term interest rates.** Hemke warns that if inflation leads to uncontrolled long-end rates, U.S. authorities are likely to restart the "yield curve control" policy implemented after World War II. Under this mechanism, the Federal Reserve would set an interest rate cap and purchase government bonds at that price, artificially suppressing nominal rates. In an environment of high inflation and locked nominal rates, real rates would turn negative. Negative real rates are seen as the most critical driver for rising gold prices. Based on this macro path forecast, **Hemke expects gold to reach at least $6,000 by 2026, while silver is likely to break through $130.** Additionally, the ongoing de-dollarization and gold-buying spree by global central banks, along with resilient industrial demand, are providing solid bottom support for precious metal prices. ## **Policy Shift: From Tightening to "Overheating"** The underlying logic of U.S. economic policy is undergoing a fundamental reversal. Hemke recalls that just a year ago, the market was discussing a $2 trillion spending cut plan and balanced budget goals led by the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), but authorities quickly realized that this tightening path was difficult to implement. The current strategy has completely shifted to "growth breakthrough," aiming to alleviate debt burdens by maximizing economic growth. This shift will be solidified through personnel changes. Hemke predicts that as current Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term ends, his successor will be more inclined to align with the Treasury's wishes, deeply integrating monetary policy with fiscal policy. This coordination aims to ensure that short-term rates remain low, creating conditions for an "overheated" economy, attempting to replicate the growth path described by Becerra, which involves reducing the debt cost ratio by enlarging the GDP denominator. ## **Potential Tool: Yield Curve Control** **Aggressive growth strategies often come with the side effect of rising inflation, which may lead to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields.** Hemke cites Japan as an example, noting that after abandoning yield curve control, rates soared, while the U.S. is heading in the opposite direction He believes that once long-term interest rates rise due to inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve will not be limited to manipulating short-term rates but will implement yield curve control. According to Hemke's analysis, the Federal Reserve may announce a cap on the 10-year Treasury yield at a specific level (e.g., 4%) and commit to intervening in the market as a buyer to maintain that rate. This would result in nominal rates being capped by policy, while inflation continues to rise amid an overheating economy. This combination would directly lead to real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) falling into negative territory, which historically has been the most favorable macro environment for gold. ## **Central Bank Demand Builds a Solid Bottom** In addition to macro policy drivers, the gold purchasing behavior of global central banks constitutes another important pillar of the precious metals market. Hemke points out that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, when the U.S. kicked Russia out of the SWIFT system and froze its foreign exchange reserves, global central bank demand for gold has set records for four consecutive years. Concerns over the safety of dollar assets have prompted countries to sell U.S. Treasuries and increase their holdings of physical gold. This trend continues into 2026. **The National Bank of Poland recently announced it will purchase an additional 150 tons of gold, bringing its gold holdings to 700 tons.** Hemke emphasizes that as long as geopolitical risks and concerns over the weaponization of the dollar persist, strong buying from global central banks will continue to support gold prices. Coupled with strong industrial demand for silver, **the precious metals market is in a long-term bull market that began in 2024, with upward momentum unabated.** ### Related Stocks - [DBP.US - Invesco Db Precious Metals ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DBP.US.md) - [518850.CN - ChinaAMC Gold ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/518850.CN.md) - [601899.CN - Zijin Mining](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601899.CN.md) - [SGOL.US - Abrdn Gold ETF Trust](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [UGL.US - Pro Ultr GLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [GOEX.US - GLOBAL X Gold Explorers](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [KGC.US - Kinross Gold](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KGC.US.md) - [GLD.US - SPDR Gold Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [600489.CN - ZHONGJIN GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) - [GOLD.US - Gold.com](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 黄金一度跌超 4%、白银暴跌 11%，美股大跌引爆算法交易贵金属卖盘？ | 周四，现货黄金一度下跌 4.1%，白银暴跌 11%。在外界再次担忧巨额 AI 投资能否真正大规模落地之际，美国科技股大跌。分析称，金属价格在疑似算法交易抛售下突然下跌，一些投资者不得不退出包括金银在内的大宗商品仓位，以获取流动性。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275815052.md) | | 股市低迷，印度投资者转而疯抢金银 ETF | 印度市场现 “弃股投金” 趋势：1 月黄金 ETF 资金流入首超股票基金，反映股市低迷下避险情绪升温。小盘股疲软及政府出售国有资产加剧股市压力。与此同时，商业地产 REITs 逆势上涨，而高估值 IPO 遇冷，显示资金正从增长资产向避险与结 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275586785.md) | | 深圳市地方金融管理局发布进一步规范黄金市场经营行为的公开提示 | 深圳市地方金融管理局发布提示，企业和个人不得进行非法黄金交易，包括预定价交易、杠杆交易、延期交易等。禁止通过互联网平台进行黄金回收和预定价买卖，或以黄金托管、租赁、回购等名义进行非法集资。投资者需谨慎，本文不构成投资建议，责任自负。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275837885.md) | | Goldmoney Inc. 的首席执行官提交了早期警告报告 | Goldmoney Inc. 的首席执行官 Roy Sebag 宣布了他持股的最新情况，他于 2026 年 2 月 10 日以 7,125 美元购买了 500 股。此次收购后，他持有 4,300,463 股，约占公司 36.15%。与他在 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275666540.md) | | 代理咨询公司支持拉布拉多黄金公司抵制异议活动 | 拉布拉多黄金公司（Labrador Gold Corp.）获得了代理咨询公司 ISS 和 Glass Lewis 的支持，建议股东在即将召开的会议上投票支持管理层。这些顾问批评了 Coloured Ties Capital 的异议活动，认为 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275798849.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.