--- title: "The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator meets expectations, with the U.S. November PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month" description: "The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, the PCE inflation, met expectations, and U.S. personal spending grew at a robust pace in November, although the savings rate declined further. T" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/273417936.md" published_at: "2026-01-22T15:01:17.000Z" --- # The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator meets expectations, with the U.S. November PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month > The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, the PCE inflation, met expectations, and U.S. personal spending grew at a robust pace in November, although the savings rate declined further. The U.S. core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in November, both in line with expectations On Thursday, January 22 local time, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, the PCE inflation, met expectations; U.S. personal spending grew at a robust pace in November, indicating that American consumers continue to show strong resilience as the holiday shopping season begins; however, the savings rate has further declined. The price increase in November was moderate, but the distorting effects of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which ended on November 12, have not fully dissipated. During the shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was unable to collect most of the consumer price data for October. The BEA stated that in the absence of October price data, it used the geometric average of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September and November for estimation. The specific inflation data is as follows, **with key figures meeting expectations:** > The U.S. PCE price index in November rose 2.8% year-on-year, expected at 2.8%. > > The U.S. PCE price index in November rose 0.2% month-on-month, expected at 0.2%. > > The core PCE price index in the U.S., excluding food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-on-year in November, expected at 2.8%. > > The core PCE price index in the U.S., excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-on-month in November, expected at 0.2%. The U.S. core PCE price index is the preferred measure of potential inflationary pressure by the Federal Reserve, showing a slight rebound on an annualized basis compared to October. **The closely watched service sector inflation indicator, excluding energy and housing costs, rose 0.3% for the second consecutive month.** ## Personal Income and Consumption Expenditure Regarding personal income and consumption expenditure: > U.S. personal income rose 0.3% month-on-month in November, expected at 0.4%. > > U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.5% month-on-month in November, expected at 0.5%. > > Adjusted for inflation, U.S. real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.3% month-on-month in November, expected at 0.3%, marking the second consecutive month of a 0.3% increase. The growth in personal spending in November was primarily driven by goods spending, which saw the strongest increase since July; spending on services, however, slowed compared to the previous month. The report also indicated that nominal wages and salaries grew robustly by 0.4%, but after accounting for inflation, disposable income saw almost no growth. **The only exception in this data was that monthly income growth was slightly below expectations, leading to a decline in the personal savings rate.** The current savings rate stands at 3.5%, the lowest level since October 2022. Although income and spending data indicate a strong start to the fourth quarter, it remains unclear how long consumers can maintain such momentum: the savings rate reflects that Americans are using more of their wage income to sustain consumption. Earlier that day, the BEA also announced that revised U.S. GDP for the third quarter grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, the highest level in two years; personal consumption expenditure grew at the fastest annual rate ## Market Interpretation Analysis indicates that the U.S. PCE personal consumption expenditure data released on January 22 largely met expectations, which is reflected not only in inflation indicators but also in actual nominal consumption levels. This report showed little sign of American consumers exhibiting fatigue due to ongoing concerns about the labor market and cost of living. On the contrary, the latest data suggests that personal spending continued to drive the economy in the fourth quarter, fueled by income growth. The savings rate is at its lowest level since October 2022, which coincided with a peak in public dissatisfaction with inflation. This does not necessarily mean that consumer spending will immediately shrink, but as a general principle: the lower the savings rate before we eventually face a consumption contraction, the stronger and more jarring the impact of that contraction will be. Citigroup economist Veronica Clark stated, “**Consumption has shown surprising resilience. It is surprising because the labor market has slowed, unemployment has risen, and hiring has decreased. If labor income growth slows and the savings rate is low, I still expect consumption to cool.**” Given the statistical distortions caused by the U.S. government shutdown, **Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to overinterpret this somewhat lagging inflation and economic “snapshot.”** The market generally expects that after three consecutive rate cuts by the end of 2025, policymakers will maintain interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, with many officials noting that the labor market is stabilizing and inflation risks remain. ## Market Reaction After the release of the U.S. PCE inflation data: - The S&P 500 index maintained an increase of about 0.3%, stabilizing near the daily low. - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell to around 4.26%, with the increase narrowing to less than 2 basis points. At 22:55 Beijing time (five minutes before the release of the Fed-favored PCE inflation indicator), it had reached a daily high of 4.2747%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield maintained an increase of over 2.3 basis points, stabilizing near the daily high of 3.6143%. - Spot gold maintained a 0.1% increase, stabilizing below $4,840. - The U.S. dollar index maintained a 0.2% decline, stabilizing near the daily low of 98.528 points, continuing a downward “trend” since 14:55 ### Related Stocks - [DIA.US - SPDR Djia](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DIA.US.md) - [MGK.US - VG Mga Cap 300 Grw](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MGK.US.md) - [USMV.US - iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/USMV.US.md) - [.DJI.US - Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [AVUV.US - Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVUV.US.md) - [UDOW.US - Pro UltrPro Dow30](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UDOW.US.md) - [VTV.US - VG Value](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VTV.US.md) - [NDAQ.US - Nasdaq](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [XLF.US - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md) - [SCHG.US - Schw Us L-Cp Grw](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SCHG.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 特朗普：选择沃什能让美国经济获得 15% 增长 | 特朗普将美联储主席提名人沃什与 “15% 经济增长” 这一激进目标挂钩，释放出追求大幅降息、对通胀容忍度提升的信号。若沃什获任，其政策表现将被置于极高的政治与市场预期之下。同时，参议员 Thom Tillis 的阻击威胁为沃什上任时间增添变 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275382796.md) | | 华尔街大胆预测：为对冲劳动力缺口，沃什或容忍 2.5%-3.5% 的通胀！ | BCA Research 预计，为对冲劳动力供给收缩引发的衰退风险，未来美联储或在候任主席沃什领导下，默许通胀目标实质上调至 2.5%-3.5% 区间。尽管工资通胀因年长工人短缺而结构性走高，政策仍将聚焦于维持经济 “高温” 运行。在此背景 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275984597.md) | | 华尔街怎么看 1 月 CPI？通胀担忧暂歇，今年三次降息几率升至五成 | 因为企业经常年初涨价，CPI 往往 1 月走高，但今年 1 月核心 CPI 增速创将近五年新低。虽然住房价格持续上涨，服装、电脑等消费品显示关税影响迹象，但汽油、牛肉和鸡蛋等政治敏感类别价格下跌，去通胀压力预计未来几个月占主导。高盛认为，美 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275938120.md) | | 如何理解开年全球市场？“可负担性” 才是 2026 的总叙事：“主街” 要赢一次，AI 叙事巨变，日元是 “关键” | 美银 Michael Hartnett 团队认为，特朗普” 可负担性” 政治推动资金从” 华尔街精英阶层” 转向” 主街普通民众”：小盘价值股崛起，科技巨头承压；AI 叙事从” 惊叹” 转向” 致贫”，相关债务激增；日元与日股相关性转正预示 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275966935.md) | | 华尔街怎么看 1 月非农就业？首次降息延至 7 月，“新美联储通讯社” 预计降息暂停期更久 | 1 月非农就业报告可能强化美联储的观望态度，使联储官员难以找到劳动力市场疲软的理由推动进一步降息，为担忧通胀的 “鹰派” 提供更多弹药。强劲的就业数据降低了美联储在年中前降息的必要性，但并未完全排除今年降息的可能。多家机构仍预计今年将有两次 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275655607.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.