--- title: "Beware of the Gold Explosion | Zeng Zhihua" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/273752396.md" description: "This article discusses the \"shoe-shiner theory,\" pointing out that when discussions about the stock market or real estate market reach a level of widespread public awareness, the market is about to peak, and investors should take profits in a timely manner. The author reviews the real estate bubbles of 1996 and 2015, as well as the dramatic rise and fall of Tencent's stock in 2021, warning that the current market enthusiasm for gold may signal the onset of risks" datetime: "2026-01-26T22:04:16.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273752396.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/273752396.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273752396.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/273752396.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/273752396.md) # Beware of the Gold Explosion | Zeng Zhihua Experienced stock investors and those with a slight understanding of economic theories must recognize what is called the "Shoeshine Boy Theory." This was proposed by Joseph Kennedy of the Kennedy family in the United States in 1927. The content is simple and direct, almost always accurate. It suggests that when the stock market rises to the point where even shoeshine boys are discussing stocks, it indicates that the market is nearing its peak and is about to burst. The wise should not enter the market at this high point; instead, they should liquidate their holdings to take profits and wait for the next opportunity to arise. ## In 1996, everyone thought housing prices were skyrocketing I learned about this theory 50 years ago and have since repeatedly observed market conditions, especially in the real estate and stock markets, and it has proven true time and again. Focusing on the real estate market, let's talk about 1996, when everyone believed not only that tomorrow would be better but that it would be explosively better, and housing prices would surely soar like a rocket. Those who did not buy were considered foolish. As a result, many borrowed to their limits to buy properties, with bank employees able to borrow at low interest rates and civil servants unafraid of speculation, many even engaged in "riding the buildings," meaning they would only pay the minimum deposit to "ride" several properties in a leveraged manner. As a result, when even the street vendors were "not doing their jobs" and discussing property speculation, it was indeed "the grim reaper approaching." Can you remember how many went bankrupt, became negative assets, or even resorted to burning charcoal? ## In 2015, everyone said the housing market had strong demand The same situation occurred in 2015, when everyone claimed the housing market could not fall because construction costs were too high, demand was strong, and mainland buyers were flooding in, with interest rates not expected to rise... What happened? Again, it burst, with casualties everywhere. ## In 2021, even cleaning ladies recommended Tencent The stock market was no different; Hong Kong's "goldfish" investors have only short memories, which allows them to "die and then speculate again." When the stock market rises to the point where everyone is telling you to buy before it bursts, the most classic example in recent years is undoubtedly Tencent Holdings (700). After Tencent went public, most people were mesmerized, especially as its price rose from HKD 170 in 2017 to HKD 707 in 2021. During this process, everyone seemed to be watching fireworks, with those who lost money feeling worse than losing their family fortunes, all jumping on the bandwagon. Again, even the cleaning lady downstairs was enthusiastically recommending: "Sir, this stock is worth buying even if it's expensive; it's easy to make a fortune." Ultimately, the gains of four years were wiped out in just one year, falling back to HKD 180, leaving a trail of corpses. Today, revisiting the Shoeshine Boy Theory, I notice that in recent months, everywhere I go, "idle people" are advising me to rush to buy gold, citing numerous reasons, claiming it will reach USD 6,000, with the atmosphere extremely heated. No, again, I smell something bad! **Veteran media person Zeng Zhi Hua** Related articles: Aunt Qian loses money but dares to apply for listing | Zeng Zhi Hua Gold prices break through USD 5,100 to hit new highs, possibly related to so-called "devaluation trades," experts say: the current market is highly speculative ### Related Stocks - [VALUEGOLD ETF-U (09081.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09081.HK.md) - [Newmont Corporation (NEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NEM.US.md) - [SD-GOLD (600547.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600547.CN.md) - [VALUEGOLD ETF-R (83081.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/83081.HK.md) - [VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDXJ.US.md) - [ChinaAMC CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF (159562.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/159562.CN.md) - [VALUEGOLD ETF (03081.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/03081.HK.md) - [VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GDX.US.md) - [iShares Gold Trust (IAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IAU.US.md) - [ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UGL.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/RING.US.md) - [US Global GO GOLD and Prec Mtl Mnrs ETF (GOAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOAU.US.md) - [Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GLD.US.md) - [SPDR GOLD TRT (02840.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/02840.HK.md) - [abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [ZHONGJIN GOLD (600489.CN)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600489.CN.md) - [HS RMB GOLD ETF (83168.HK)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/83168.HK.md) - [Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AEM.US.md) - [Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/KGC.US.md) - [Gold.com (GOLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOLD.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Gold Hunter shifts from quiet buildup to fully funded drilling push at Newfoundland gold district](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281261616.md) - [05:10 ETBest Gold Investment for Beginners (2026): Priority Gold Named Leading Platform for Gold IRAs and First-Time Buyers by Better Business Advice](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281622297.md) - [Lexington Gold Secures Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281053589.md) - [Mount Everest Gold Returns to Profit in 2025](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280552412.md) - [Gold Royalty Corp. 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