--- title: "Valuation logic fails? Tesla's profit outlook plummets by 56%, yet the target price is raised to $410" description: "Wall Street sends mixed signals about Tesla: Analysts have significantly lowered their net profit forecast for 2026 by 56% to $6.1 billion, yet at the same time raised the target price to around $410." type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/273888208.md" published_at: "2026-01-27T16:02:58.000Z" --- # Valuation logic fails? Tesla's profit outlook plummets by 56%, yet the target price is raised to $410 > Wall Street sends mixed signals about Tesla: Analysts have significantly lowered their net profit forecast for 2026 by 56% to $6.1 billion, yet at the same time raised the target price to around $410. This rare divergence indicates that market valuations are no longer reliant on traditional financial fundamentals, but are increasingly anchored to the long-term visions of robotics and autonomous driving as depicted by Musk. As the earnings season approaches, the market's focus has shifted from vehicle sales to the specific progress of AI and robotics businesses Wall Street is sending mixed signals about Tesla: analysts' average forecast for its net profit in 2026 has plummeted by 56% within 12 months, sharply revised down from $14.1 billion to $6.1 billion, reflecting deepening skepticism about its profitability. However, during the same period, the average target price for the stock has been raised from around $338 to nearly $410. This rare divergence reveals the current market valuation logic for Tesla: **its stock performance is increasingly anchored to the long-term visions of CEO Elon Musk, such as humanoid robots and autonomous driving, rather than the company's recent vehicle sales and financial fundamentals.** Tesla is set to release its latest financial report soon. While the market closely watches its performance guidance, analysts are more eager to understand its specific progress in emerging business areas like autonomous driving and robotics, as this information may become key to supporting the current high valuation expectations. ## Divergence Between Valuation and Profit Expectations The divergence between Tesla's current stock price and its profit expectations has reached an "extremely unusual" level. Typically, **an increase in target price is often accompanied by an improvement in profit expectations, rather than a significant downward revision, which contradicts traditional valuation logic.** Currently, Tesla's forward price-to-earnings ratio has exceeded 195 times, significantly higher among the "Tech Seven." This group has an overall forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 29 times, while core members like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon generally have valuations ranging between 25 to 30 times. Among the S&P 500 constituents, Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio is also the second highest, only behind Warner Bros. Discovery, which is in the process of a merger, and far above the third-ranked Palantir. HSBC analyst Mike Tyndall noted in a recent report: > "If its valuation were closer to the industry average, we might consider the risk-reward ratio of the stock to be attractive." However, the reality is that other members of the "Tech Seven" generally possess "higher profitability and more abundant cash flow," yet their valuations are significantly lower than Tesla's. This contrast highlights that the market's premium pricing for its long-term vision has deviated from conventional fundamental frameworks. ## Betting on Future Vision Rather Than Current Performance To better understand the valuation heterogeneity of Tesla among the "Tech Seven," a key phenomenon can be observed: over the past year, although the target prices for all members of this group have been raised, only Tesla's profit expectations have significantly deteriorated during the same period. The "vision premium" implied by Tesla's current stock price has become the core of market divergence. The pricing logic for this stock has clearly deviated from the fundamentals of its electric vehicle sales, shifting more towards Musk's long-term prospects for humanoid robots and fully autonomous driving technology. **While these areas have high growth potential, Tesla has yet to prove its sustainable profitability in such businesses.** After Tesla reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter noted in a report: > "The importance of delivery volume indicators has significantly decreased. Instead, Tesla's performance in 2026 will primarily be driven by its substantial progress in artificial intelligence and robotics." Potter maintains an "overweight" rating on Tesla stock, but he also warns: > "If there is a lack of further disclosure regarding new business developments, market attention may once again shift to its weak short-term profit expectations, thereby putting pressure on the stock price." ## Analysts Choose to Bet on Musk This tension is at the core of the debate surrounding the stock's high valuation. Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas believes that **the 'generational growth opportunities' in robotics, autonomous driving, and energy storage make Tesla's price justified.** Jonestrading Chief Market Strategist Michael O'Rourke states that the fundamental shift in Tesla's strategy also makes it a rare case where expected earnings often significantly deviate from the stock's target price. He says: > "Analysts are willing to value the company based on uncommercialized businesses. In short, they prefer to bet on Musk rather than against him." ### Related Stocks - [TSDD.US - GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TESL.US - Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLS.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLS.US.md) - [TSLR.US - GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [TSLG.US - Leverage Shares 2X Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [TSLQ.US - AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [TSL.US - GraniteShares 1.25 Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSLT.US - T-Rex 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 特斯拉首辆 Cybercab 下线：没有方向盘和踏板的汽车终于来了 | 特斯拉宣布，首辆赛博无人驾驶电动车 Tesla Cybercab 在美国得州超级工厂正式下线。风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276188665.md) | | 现在我们知道特斯拉为什么终止了 Autopilot 功能 | 特斯拉已停止使用自动驾驶品牌，并在加州机动车辆管理局（DMV）裁定后，从新车中移除了自动转向功能。此决定是为了遵守 DMV 的要求，避免因涉嫌对其驾驶辅助系统进行误导性营销而导致特斯拉的经销商许可证被暂停。DMV 确认特斯拉成功采取了必要措 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276285872.md) | | 特斯拉在解决自动驾驶问题之前，已经下线了首款无方向盘的 Cybercab 车型 | 特斯拉宣布在德克萨斯州超级工厂生产首个无方向盘的 Cybercab 单元。这款车辆完全依赖于自动驾驶软件，特斯拉承认该软件尚未完全开发。此公告是在一份报告发布后作出的，该报告指出特斯拉的 Robotaxi 项目面临重大挑战，包括事故率几乎是 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276159670.md) | | 特斯拉在德州超级工厂生产线下线首辆 Cybercab | 特斯拉在德克萨斯州超级工厂成功实现了一个重要里程碑，首辆 Cybercab 在计划于四月开始生产之前已下线。这一初始单位是早期生产验证的一部分，使特斯拉能够完善组装技术。公司旨在采用一种新的 “无箱” 生产方法，以提高效率并降低成本。然而， | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276175053.md) | | 特斯拉宣布了一个令人惊叹的新全自动驾驶里程碑 | 特斯拉宣布了一个重要里程碑，使用其全自动驾驶（FSD）套件进行半自动驾驶的行驶里程超过了 80 亿英里。这一成就至关重要，因为它有助于公司实现达到 100 亿英里训练数据的目标，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，这对于实现无监督自驾是必要的。FS | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276278797.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.