--- title: "AI \"eating memory\" can't stop? Can SanDisk's financial report bring another surprise guidance?" description: "The Bernstein report points out that the core focus of SanDisk's financial report is not on past performance, but rather whether the company's guidance for future quarters can surprise again. Currentl" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/274011380.md" published_at: "2026-01-28T15:31:21.000Z" --- # AI "eating memory" can't stop? Can SanDisk's financial report bring another surprise guidance? > The Bernstein report points out that the core focus of SanDisk's financial report is not on past performance, but rather whether the company's guidance for future quarters can surprise again. Currently, the NAND flash memory market is in a strong upward cycle driven by a surge in AI demand and tight supply, with prices continuing to rise, providing solid support for SanDisk's profitability. The market expects that the forward guidance it provides has significant room for upward revision, and if future price increases exceed expectations, the company's earnings elasticity will be quite considerable BERNSTEIN SOCIETE GENERALE GROUP (hereinafter referred to as Bernstein) has maintained its "Outperform" rating on SanDisk in its latest report, setting a target price of $580, which implies a potential upside of 20% compared to the current closing price of approximately $481.42. The report believes that **the current NAND flash memory industry is in a strong upward cycle driven by a surge in AI demand and a slowdown in supply growth.** In this context, **the continuously rising average selling price provides solid support for SanDisk's performance this quarter.** Bernstein expects that **SanDisk's performance in the second fiscal quarter will once again exceed market expectations, and the company's guidance for the third fiscal quarter has significant upward adjustment potential, which may become the highlight of this earnings report.**## Industry Upward Cycle Boost: AI Ignites Demand, Supply Continues to Tighten The core driving force behind this round of the NAND storage industry's upward cycle lies in structural changes on both the supply and demand sides. On the demand side, **the explosion of artificial intelligence applications continues to drive data storage demand,** and market expectations for storage products have been further elevated due to technological advancements such as NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform. On the supply side, **overall industry capacity expansion is limited, with new supply being scarce, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap that directly drives NAND flash prices into a clear upward channel.** Bernstein emphasizes in its 2026 industry outlook that **SanDisk is a core beneficiary of this AI-driven data explosion wave.** This judgment is based on the fact that even if the market has high expectations for storage manufacturers, **as long as the actual performance in corporate earnings reports and future guidance continues to exceed consensus, it can effectively drive stock prices to achieve double-digit significant increases.** The performance of Micron and SanDisk in their previous earnings reports has fully confirmed this logic. On December 17, 2025, Micron announced a non-GAAP earnings per share guidance range of $8.22 to $8.62 for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, far exceeding the market's general expectation of $5.13, and its stock price rose by 10% the next day. Earlier, on November 6, 2025, SanDisk provided a non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $3.0 to $3.4 for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, also significantly higher than the market expectation of $1.99, driving its stock price to soar by 15% the next day. These cases clearly indicate that **in a strong industry cycle, exceeding expectations in financial guidance is a key catalyst for driving stock prices upward.** ## Q2 Performance Outlook: ASP Up 14%, Performance Likely to Exceed Expectations Bernstein expects that SanDisk's non-GAAP earnings per share for the second fiscal quarter of 2026 will reach $3.79, higher than the market's general expectation of $3.45. **The core driver for this potentially exceeding performance is the increase in average selling price (ASP).** Bernstein predicts that the average selling price of SanDisk's NAND products in this quarter will achieve approximately a 14% quarter-over-quarter increase, and this upward trend may continue further Historical data indicates that the increase in average selling price (ASP) of products is a key variable driving the growth of the company's profitability. In the current context where the supply-demand dynamics of the industry have not fundamentally reversed, the continuous rise in average selling price will provide solid fundamental support for SanDisk's performance in the second quarter. ## Q3 Guidance Has Huge Potential: If ASP Increases by 40%, Earnings Per Share Will Hit $9.06 Compared to the market's general focus on the second quarter performance, **SanDisk's guidance for the third quarter of 2026 is considered to have greater upside potential and imaginative space.** Under Bernstein's baseline forecast scenario, SanDisk's non-GAAP earnings per share for the third quarter are expected to reach $6.52, with the core assumption being that the average selling price (ASP) of NAND products will achieve a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase. This forecast value is significantly higher than the current market expectation of $4.62. **If the industry's supply-demand tension exceeds expectations, driving a larger increase in ASP, the company's earnings elasticity will be even more astonishing.** According to model calculations, if the ASP increases by 40% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, which is roughly consistent with Gartner's forecast of about a 43% quarterly increase, SanDisk's non-GAAP earnings per share for the quarter could soar to $9.06, further projecting its earnings per share for the fiscal year 2027 to reach a high of $67.50. The report also highlights risks and prudence. Although sporadic data indicates that in an extremely tight market, the ASP could see a 100% quarter-over-quarter increase, Bernstein's analysis suggests that **such drastic price fluctuations are unlikely to cover the entire shipment volume within a complete quarter. If this extreme increase is forcibly calculated, the theoretical quarterly earnings per share would exceed $17, but this is considered to have a low probability of realization in the short term.** ## Focus on Peer Earnings Reports and Beware of Downward Cycle Risks SanDisk's market performance will largely correlate with the overall atmosphere of the semiconductor storage industry. Key signals from peers will come from Samsung Electronics; if Samsung conveys clear signals in its earnings statement regarding a solid upward trend in NAND flash prices, strong end demand (especially related to AI), or continued tight industry supply, this will serve as the most powerful third-party validation of the current industry upcycle and SanDisk's own fundamentals, potentially providing additional upward momentum for SanDisk's stock price. At the same time, the report also warns investors to pay attention to three potential downward risks: 1. **Industry Cyclical Risk**: Although currently in an upcycle, the inherent cyclicality of the NAND industry means that after experiencing short-term high growth, there is a possibility of turning downward. A high performance base may put pressure on future year-over-year growth. 2. **Communication Transparency Risk**: The report points out that the company has deficiencies in information disclosure and investor relations communication, which may affect the confidence of some institutional investors and long-term value investors, adversely impacting the stability of the valuation system. 3. **Structural Recession Risk**: If the degree and duration of weak industry demand exceed the current cyclical adjustment scope, evolving into a structural recession caused by slowed technological iteration or saturation of application scenarios, it could trigger significant revaluation and downward adjustment of the company's asset value and long-term cash flow levels ### Related Stocks - [SOXX.US - iShares Semiconductor ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [SNDK.US - Sandisk](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNDK.US.md) - [SOXQ.US - Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXQ.US.md) - [FTXL.US - First Trust Nasdaq Food & Semicon](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FTXL.US.md) - [SOXL.US - Direxion Semicon Bull 3X](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [XSD.US - SPDR S&P Semicon](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XSD.US.md) - [SMH.US - VanEck Semiconductor ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SMH.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 首批三个项目聚焦 “数据中心、原油码头、合成钻石”，美日 5500 亿美元投资基金即将启动 | 美日协议首批三个项目分别为：软银主导的数据中心基础设施项目、墨西哥湾深海原油码头项目，以及用于半导体的合成钻石项目。这些项目符合去年特朗普访日期间确定的投资框架，该框架涵盖能源、人工智能和关键矿产等领域，涉及软银、西屋电气和东芝等企业。根据 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275719286.md) | | 闪迪启动 30.8 亿美元二级市场股票发行 | 闪迪于 2 月 17 日宣布启动 30.8 亿美元的二级市场股票发行，涉及现有股东出售股份。西部数据将通过股权方式处置对闪迪的债权，具体债务规模和交易细节尚未披露。投资需谨慎，本文不构成个人投资建议。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276180619.md) | | Ferroglobe 在第四季度转为亏损，销售额下降 | Ferroglobe 报告第四季度每股摊薄亏损为 0.06 美元，较去年同期的每股盈利 0.03 美元有所下降。销售额从去年同期的 3.675 亿美元下降至 3.294 亿美元，尽管超出了分析师预期的 2.936 亿美元。公司将季度股息从每 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276179311.md) | | Meta 加码英伟达：未来数年部署数百万颗芯片，首次采用 Grace CPU | 根据周二发布的声明，Meta 承诺将使用更多来自英伟达的 AI 处理器和网络设备。同时，Meta 还将首次在其独立计算机的核心部件采用英伟达的 Grace CPU。此次部署将涵盖基于英伟达当前 Blackwell 架构，以及即将推出的 Ve | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276177748.md) | | 西部数据抛售 30 亿美元的闪迪股票，盘后闪迪股价下挫 2% | 根据声明，西部数据预计将把这批闪迪股份与摩根大通证券和美银证券关联方持有的西部数据债务进行置换。交易完成后，这些关联方将作为售股股东，通过承销商在二级市场出售股份。公告发布后，闪迪股价延续周二颓势，盘后下挫超 2%。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276182299.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.