---
title: "Bank of America Hartnett warns: Global stock markets are trapped in an \"overbought\" dilemma, with technical indicators reaching historic sell signals"
description: "Michael Hartnett warned that up to 89% of MSCI index constituents are simultaneously above two key moving averages, breaking through the historical sell threshold of 88%. Meanwhile, there is a signifi"
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/274302884.md"
published_at: "2026-01-30T11:49:52.000Z"
---

# Bank of America Hartnett warns: Global stock markets are trapped in an "overbought" dilemma, with technical indicators reaching historic sell signals

> Michael Hartnett warned that up to 89% of MSCI index constituents are simultaneously above two key moving averages, breaking through the historical sell threshold of 88%. Meanwhile, there is a significant divergence in the market, with global equity funds experiencing a net outflow of $15.4 billion in a single week, indicating that funds are withdrawing at high levels, yet market sentiment indicators remain "extremely bullish" due to the broad rise in stock indices

Bank of America strategists have issued a clear warning, believing that the global stock market has entered a dangerous "overbought" state.

On January 30, a team led by Michael Hartnett pointed out that although major global indices are still hitting historical highs, a key internal indicator has reached a threshold that suggests a potential reversal. Data monitored by the team shows that as of the week ending January 28, as much as 89% of the MSCI Global Stock Index constituents were trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. **This ratio has surpassed the 88% "sell signal" historical threshold set by the bank's model.**

Past experience indicates that when this indicator breaks this level, it typically means that market breadth is excessively expanded, significantly increasing the risk of a technical pullback in the short term. This serves as a warning bell for the currently hot market.

## Divergence Between Technical and Fund Flows Intensifies

In stark contrast to the continuous new highs in stock indices, cautious signals have emerged within the market. In the week ending January 28, global equity funds recorded a net outflow of $15.4 billion, **indicating that some funds are choosing to take profits at historical highs.**

However, Bank of America's Bull & Bear Indicator remains in the "extremely bullish" range due to the broad rise in global stock indices and the robust performance of the credit market. This contradiction reveals a key market divergence: **the technical indicators have shown overbought warnings, fund flows are beginning to retreat, but sentiment indicators remain in an extremely optimistic state.**

This rare combination of technical, fund, and sentiment factors typically indicates that the underlying momentum of the market is quietly changing, and the apparent strength may mask vulnerabilities, further highlighting the potential pullback risks accumulated after repeated new highs.

## Regional Market Fund Flows Diverge

U.S. equity funds regained their attractiveness last week, recording a net inflow of $9.2 billion, indicating that U.S. assets still possess relative appeal amid an overall outflow of funds in the global market.

In contrast, fund flows in European stock markets have reversed, experiencing a net outflow of $400 million for the first time in seven weeks, marking a temporary interruption of the previously sustained inflow trend.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett clearly stated that **his most favored trading strategy for 2026 is to go long on bonds, international stocks, and gold simultaneously.** This allocation continues the "preference for international stocks" stance that has been recommended since the end of 2024, a judgment that has been validated by the recent underperformance of the U.S. stock market compared to international markets

### Related Stocks

- [BAC.US - Bank of America](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC.US.md)
- [URTH.US - ISHRS MSCI World](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/URTH.US.md)
- [XLF.US - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/XLF.US.md)
- [ACWX.US - iShares MSCI ACWI Ex US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ACWX.US.md)
- [VFH.US - VG Financial](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/VFH.US.md)
- [ACWI.US - iShares MSCI ACWI](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ACWI.US.md)
- [FNCL.US - Fidelity MSCI Financials Index](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FNCL.US.md)

## Related News & Research

| Title | Description | URL |
|-------|-------------|-----|
| 本轮 AI 大清洗，财富管理平台被错杀了？ | 随着 AI 税务规划工具的推出，财富管理平台股价承压，市场情绪恐慌。美银美林的研报指出，这一抛售是情绪化的错杀，AI 是增强而非替代顾问的工具。高净值客户仍需人类顾问的专业建议，AI 的价值在于提升效率。报告认为，具备高净值客户基础、积极嵌 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275890826.md) |
| 二月份基金经理调查：接近历史纪录的狂热情绪，创纪录的资本支出厌恶 | 上个月美国银行的基金经理调查发现，投资者不仅是自 2021 年 7 月以来最乐观的，而且在过去 8 年中对冲程度最低 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276229246.md) |
| 别为美最高法推翻特朗普关税高兴太早？华尔街预计市场反应或昙花一现 | 美国股债汇波动相对温和的一个重要原因是，预测市场此前已倾向于这一裁决结果，且特朗普随后表示已有备用方案。虽然特朗普至少有五种替代的法律工具重新征收关税，但无论采取何种方式，都将对长期美债的收益率构成上行压力。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276487370.md) |
| 安大略教师养老金计划委员会出售了美国银行公司$BAC 的股票 | 安大略教师退休金计划委员会在第三季度将其在美国银行（NYSE:BAC）的持股减少了 24.9%，目前持有 3,082,510 股，价值 1.59 亿美元。这使得美国银行成为他们投资组合中第七大持股。其他投资者也调整了他们的持仓，其中一些增加 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276339405.md) |
| 瑞银集团 - 稳定化后公告 RBI PerpNC6.9 AT1 | 瑞士银行（UBS AG）已发布关于 Raiffeisen Bank International AG 发行的 6.9% 永久性无到期日 AT1 证券（总额为 6.5 亿欧元）的后稳定通知。通知指出，瑞士银行欧洲子公司（UBS Europe  | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276321485.md) |

---

> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.