--- title: "The premium of software stocks has fallen to a new low since the financial crisis, Goldman Sachs: Don't rush, it hasn't fully dropped yet!" description: "Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the valuation premium of the global software and IT services sector has fallen to a new low since the financial crisis, and the current decline is seen as valua" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/275269996.md" published_at: "2026-02-09T05:54:56.000Z" --- # The premium of software stocks has fallen to a new low since the financial crisis, Goldman Sachs: Don't rush, it hasn't fully dropped yet! > Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the valuation premium of the global software and IT services sector has fallen to a new low since the financial crisis, and the current decline is seen as valuation compression rather than a cyclical clearing. Although the market has reacted aggressively to the impact of AI, adjustments may not yet be in place given that earnings expectations have not been revised downwards. Since the beginning of the year, the European software sector has fallen by about 16%, with the valuation premium remaining at only 9%, close to the lows seen during the 2009 financial crisis In the context of rapidly rising expectations for AI disruption, the global software and IT services sector is undergoing a profound revaluation. According to the Chase Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs analyst Sharon Bell's team pointed out in their latest strategy report that the valuation premium of software stocks relative to the broader market has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis. On the surface, it seems that the market has responded quite aggressively to the "AI impact." However, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the current decline resembles a "valuation compression" rather than a complete cyclical clearing. Historical experience shows that **high-margin, asset-light industries like software typically only stabilize in stock prices after earnings expectations have been revised down.** Given that consensus earnings remain at high levels, the current adjustment may not yet be complete. ## AI Expectations Trigger Intense Rotation, Software Becomes "First to Be Sold Off" Goldman Sachs notes that although European stock markets have risen about 4% year-to-date, a significant structural rotation is occurring beneath the indices. With the rapid evolution of AI automation tools and large model capabilities, the market is beginning to systematically reassess business models that rely on software, data aggregation, and information distribution for profitability. Sectors such as software, data services, information providers, publishers, alternative asset management companies, and gaming stocks have generally experienced double-digit declines since the beginning of the year. Goldman Sachs statistics show that the European software sector has fallen about 16% year-to-date, while its tracked digital economy thematic basket has declined about 10%, significantly underperforming the European market supported by financials, resources, utilities, and industrials. In Goldman Sachs' view, the release of a new generation of large models and automation tools by Anthropic is merely the "catalyst"; the real driving factor is that **the market is beginning to question whether the high profit margins established in the software industry over the past decade can continue to exist after the widespread adoption of AI.** ## Valuation Premium Rapidly Collapses, Returning to Financial Crisis Levels From a valuation perspective, the revaluation of the software sector has been quite significant. **Goldman Sachs data shows that the current 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for European software and IT services companies is about 16.8 times, with only a 9% premium over the broader market, a level close to the lows during the 2009 financial crisis (which was about 8% at its lowest).** **In contrast, a year ago, the valuation premium for this sector was still above 70%.** In the broader digital economy sector, the forward price-to-earnings ratio has compressed from 18.7 times at the beginning of 2025 to the current 13.7 times, sitting at the bottom of the valuation range over the past two decades. If we look solely at the static matching relationship between valuation and growth, software stocks seem to have "dropped to a reasonable range": the current valuation implies a revenue growth assumption of only 4%–5%, roughly equivalent to nominal GDP, while analysts' expectations for the medium to long-term revenue growth rate in the software industry remain close to 9%. ## The Issue Is Not Current Earnings, But the "Sustainability" of Profit Margins However, Goldman Sachs believes that the market's real concern is not about a collapse in short-term earnings, but whether the profit structure will face systemic compression in the medium to long term A seemingly "positive signal" actually constitutes a key reason for Goldman Sachs to remain cautious: analysts' EPS expectations for the software sector have hardly been downgraded. Data shows that over the past decade, the net profit margin of the software and IT services industry has continued to rise, reaching about twice the average level of non-financial sectors in Europe, with the expansion mainly concentrated in the most recent complete cycle. Goldman Sachs points out that high profit margins imply both a moat and a higher risk of disruption. When AI tools significantly reduce development, maintenance, and replacement costs, pricing power and profit margins will become the most easily eroded parts. **The report compares the software industry with the mobile communications industry: the latter has long been in a highly competitive, product-homogenized environment, with prices continuously declining; while the software industry has shifted from a "deflationary force" to a "moderate inflation source" over the past decade, making it appear more vulnerable when structural shocks occur.** ## Historical experience shows: valuations drop first, earnings adjust later, and stock prices stabilize only then Even at the current valuation levels, Goldman Sachs does not believe that risks have been fully released. The report reviews the software industry's own history and other industries disrupted by technology (such as the newspaper industry in the 2000s and the tobacco industry in the 1990s) and finds that sustainable rebounds in stock prices often occur after earnings expectations hit bottom and begin to recover, rather than when valuations first decline. From this perspective, the current adjustment of software stocks seems more like the first half of a revaluation process: > - Profit margins are still at cyclical highs > - Consensus EPS has not yet reflected potential competitive shocks > - The market mainly digests uncertainty through valuation compression Goldman Sachs therefore judges that the current decline is more like a "pre-pricing" rather than a complete clearing process. Despite maintaining caution about the overall software sector, Goldman Sachs does not deny the long-term allocation value of tech stocks. At the strategic level, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that in a low-correlation environment, differentiation among individual stocks and sub-industries will continue to dominate market performance, with limited returns at the index level, but companies with deep moats and pricing power may still outperform. Overall, Goldman Sachs' signal is quite clear: the valuations of software stocks have returned to historical lows, but before earnings expectations complete their repricing, the true bottom may still require patience. ``` The above wonderful content comes from the Wind Trading Platform. For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join the【 **Wind Trading Platform ▪ Annual Membership**】 Risk warning and disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk ``` ### Related Stocks - [GS-C.US - GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PRF SER C](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-C.US.md) - [GS.US - Goldman Sachs](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [GS-D.US - GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP REP 1/1000TH PRF D](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [GS-A.US - GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHR REP 1/1000TH PFD SER A](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS-A.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 隨着對 AI 顛覆的擔憂加劇，高盛逆勢而行，抵制私人信貸贖回趨勢 | 高盛的資產管理部門報告稱，GS Credit 的贖回率顯著低於同行，儘管人們對人工智能對軟件公司的影響表示擔憂。12 月的資金流入比平均水平高出 11%，第四季度的贖回率為 3.5%。該公司正在評估人工智能對軟件行業的影響，承認可能會出現競 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277242948.md) | | 根據《證券交易法》第 40 條第 1 款發佈 | QIAGEN N.V. 根據《德國證券交易法》第 40 條第 1 款發佈了一份公告，詳細説明了荷蘭金融市場管理局（AFM）關於投票權的通知。該通知日期為 2026 年 2 月 23 日，涉及高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277247859.md) | | AI 資本支出激增，電網更吃緊！高盛大幅上調全球 AI 用電預期：2030 年需求暴增 220% | 高盛最新報告上調 2030 年全球數據中心用電需求增幅至 220%，其中美國佔據六成。AI 投資增量正從算力外溢至電力供應鏈，引發基礎設施 “可靠性超級週期”。儘管雲廠商資本開支劇增擠壓自由現金流，但其仍有財力為清潔電力溢價買單。目前行業瓶 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276852501.md) | | 花旗集團公司收購了 Weyerhaeuser 公司 669,451 股股票 | 花旗集團在第三季度將其在 Weyerhaeuser 公司的股份增加了 68.5%，收購了 669,451 股，使其總持股達到 1,647,285 股，價值約為 4080 萬美元。其他投資者，包括高盛和 Empowered Funds，也增加 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276860914.md) | | REG - 高盛銀行歐洲永久 TSB 集團 - 表格 38.5b- 永久 TSB 集團控股有限公司 | 高盛銀行歐洲分行根據愛爾蘭收購委員會第 38.5(b) 條款披露了對 Permanent TSB Group Holdings PLC 的交易情況。2026 年 2 月 25 日，高盛報告持有 10,337 股面值 0.01 歐元的普通股， | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277030460.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.