--- title: "Elon Musk Bets On Humanoid Robots In 2026, But One Company Hopes 'Elon Time' Strikes Again" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/275377544.md" description: "Elon Musk's humanoid robot, Optimus, is seen as Tesla's key value driver, potentially boosting its market cap to $25 trillion. However, prediction markets indicate only a 21% chance of its availability by 2026. This skepticism may affect Tesla's stock and revenue, especially as car sales decline. A delay could benefit competitors like Hyundai, which is advancing its own robotics. Musk's history of missed deadlines raises concerns about meeting this ambitious timeline." datetime: "2026-02-09T23:12:11.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275377544.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275377544.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275377544.md) --- > Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275377544.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275377544.md) # Elon Musk Bets On Humanoid Robots In 2026, But One Company Hopes 'Elon Time' Strikes Again Elon Musk has repeatedly touted the Optimus humanoid robot as **Tesla’s** (NYSE:TSLA) most significant long-term value driver, suggesting it could eventually propel the company’s market cap to $25 trillion. Yet, prediction market odds suggest a humanoid robot in 2026 may be a little too optimistic. During Tesla's recent “We, Robot” event, Musk claimed the robots could perform everything from babysitting to mowing lawns, with a price tag between $20,000 and $30,000. But according to Kalshi, the humanoid robot has just a 21% chance of being available for sale in 2026. For Tesla investors, the skepticism in the prediction markets suggests that the actual revenue contribution from robotics may be further off than the company’s marketing suggests. If Tesla fails to meet its internal production milestones in 2025, expect the Kalshi odds to tumble further. With Tesla’s car based revenue falling, this could have a similar impact on Tesla’s stock price. The success or failure of Optimus isn’t just a Tesla story. It will ripple through the broader robotics and AI ecosystem, with **NVIDIA Corp.** (NASDAQ:NVDA) as the primary provider of Blackwell chips powering Tesla's training clusters potentially impacted by a delay. **Hyundai Motor Co.** (OTC:HYMTF) is Tesla’s primary rival in the humanoid space. Hyundai-owned **Boston Dynamics** just began pilot deployments of its electric Atlas bot; a Tesla delay would give the company a massive window to capture the enterprise market first. Hyundai has already confirmed that its entire 2026 production run is fully committed. While Musk is famous for hitting “impossible” goals, he is equally known for “Elon Time”—a history of ambitious deadlines for products like the Cybertruck and Full Self-Driving (FSD) that faced multi-year delays. Prediction market traders are betting on Musk failing to meet yet another optimistic self-imposed deadline. _Image: Shutterstock_ ### Related Stocks - [Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [T-REX 2X Inverse Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLZ.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) - [T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLT.US.md) - [Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [Global X Atnms & Elctrc Vhcls ETF (DRIV.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/DRIV.US.md) - [Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (TESL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TESL.US.md) - [Leverage Shares 2X Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLG.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLG.US.md) - [GraniteShares 1.25x Long Tsla Daily ETF (TSL.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSL.US.md) - [Max Auto Industry 3X Leveraged ETN (CARU.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CARU.US.md) - [First Trust S-Network Fut Vhcl&Tech ETF (CARZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/CARZ.US.md) ## Related News & Research - [Tesla’s sales recover slightly, but the trend lines are all bad](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281541012.md) - [Tesla’s Q1 delivery figures show Elon Musk was right](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281556811.md) - [Tesla First Quarter 2026 Production, Deliveries & Deployments | TSLA Stock News](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281529738.md) - [Tesla reports 358,000 first-quarter vehicle deliveries](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281530888.md) - [Tesla, Inc. $TSLA Shares Sold by BTC Capital Management Inc.](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281321406.md)