--- title: "Bitcoin’s ‘weakest bear market’ ever: Bernstein predicts $150K in 2026" description: "Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $150K by the end of 2026, describing the current bear market as the weakest in history, with a 52% decline from its peak of $126K. They attribute th" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/275509451.md" published_at: "2026-02-10T21:03:57.000Z" --- # Bitcoin’s ‘weakest bear market’ ever: Bernstein predicts $150K in 2026 > Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $150K by the end of 2026, describing the current bear market as the weakest in history, with a 52% decline from its peak of $126K. They attribute the decline to a 'manufactured crisis of confidence' rather than systemic risks. While acknowledging potential downside risks, Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts caution that Bitcoin may remain in a sideways trading range between $60K and $74K before a clearer trend emerges. Despite the current challenges, Bernstein remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance. The current drawdown has not affected Bernstein’s Bitcoin\[BTC\] projection of hitting $150K by the end of 2026. In a recent note to clients, the analysts at the research and brokerage firm, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the current decline was the ‘weakest’ BTC bear case so far. > “What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history” Unlike past bear markets, which were driven by blow-ups (the FTX implosion in 2022), hidden leverage, and other systemic risks, the 2026 market doesn’t rhyme, the analysts added. Chhugani blamed the current weakness on a ‘manufactured crisis of confidence’ driven by followers of the 4-year cycle. The analysts sarcastically wrote, > “When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.” From its cycle peak of $126K in October, Bitcoin fell to $60K in early February, marking a 52% decline. At press time, it had slightly recovered to $69K. The past five BTC bear markets since 2011 have averaged an 80% drawdown, with the least being 72%. That would make a 52% decline in 2026, indeed, the ‘weakest’. However, if it were to match the past trends, that would imply an extra downside risk to $35.2K. Put differently, the current level was at the halfway point of a typical bear-market pullback. ## **Bernstein downplays quantum fears** On quantum computing fears, which is one of the major catalysts cited by bear analysts, Bernstein said that it was not an immediate threat. The analysts acknowledged quantum risk as a long-term threat, adding that all critical digital systems face similar risk and will transition to quantum-resistant upgrades together. This stance was similar to that of Grayscale and Strategy’s Michael Saylor. ## **Is an extended BTC drop still likely?** Even so, Bitcoin was not out of the woods just yet. According to Glassnode, at the current $70K, the unrealized loss translates to 16% of the market cap, echoing an early bear-market structure for the 2022 cycle. The loss hit 24% when BTC dropped to $60K, with Glassnode adding that, > “This places the market in an intense bear regime, though still below extreme capitulation phases seen above 50%, suggesting a capitulation process is underway.” Source: Glassnode Bitfinex analysts, on the other hand, projected a sideways structure for BTC within the $60K and $74K price range for a while. > “The market is likely to consolidate here ($60K-$74K) as it digests losses and resets positioning, ahead of clearer signals on whether this range becomes a base for recovery or a pause before further downside.” Source: Bitfinex * * * ## Final Thoughts - *Bernstein analysts believe BTC will still make a new all-time high of $150K in 2026, calling the $60K drop the ‘weakest’ bear market.* - *However, Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts remained cautious, warning that further downside risk couldn’t be overruled.* ### Related Stocks - [BITB.US - Bitwise Bitcoin ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITB.US.md) - [BITO.US - ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BITO.US.md) - [BTC.US - Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTC.US.md) - [FBTC.US - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FBTC.US.md) - [BTCO.US - Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BTCO.US.md) - [BRRR.US - CoinShares Bitcoin ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BRRR.US.md) - [BCOR.US - Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BCOR.US.md) - [IBIT.US - iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/IBIT.US.md) - [WGMI.US - Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/WGMI.US.md) - [HODL.US - VanEck Bitcoin ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HODL.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | Trump–Backed American Bitcoin Celebrates 'Amazing Story' After Q4 Earnings | American Bitcoin (NASDAQ:ABTC) reported strong Q4 and full-year 2025 results, showcasing a 159% year-over-year revenue g | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277085445.md) | | Behind Wu Jihan's liquidation of Bitcoin | On February 20th, Bitdeer, the Bitcoin mining company founded by Wu Jihan, liquidated its remaining 943 Bitcoins, comple | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276609462.md) | | GD Culture Group plans 7,500 Bitcoin sale – Panic or strategic reset? | GD Culture Group, the 15th-largest Bitcoin treasury holder, plans to sell its entire 7,500 BTC position, a move seen as | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277044763.md) | | U.S. State Indiana Adds Bitcoin To Public Retirement Plans | Lawmakers in Indiana have voted to include Bitcoin in public retirement plans, allowing exposure to cryptocurrencies and | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277068153.md) | | Bitcoin miner Bitdeer dumps entire BTC reserves, holdings drop to zero | Bitcoin mining firm Bitdeer has sold all its Bitcoin holdings, reducing its treasury to zero. The company produced 189.8 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276530100.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.